Momentum and contrarian effects in the Ukrainian stock market: case of daily overreactions

This paper examines momentum and contrarian effects in the Ukrainian stock market after one-day abnormal returns. To do this, UX futures data over the period 2010–2018 are used. The following hypotheses are tested: H1) hourly returns on overreaction days differ from hourly returns on normal days, H2) there are price patterns on overreaction days, and H3) to test these hypotheses, visual inspection and average analysis are used, as well as t-tests, cumulative abnormal returns, and trading simulation approaches. The results suggest that there are statistically significant differences between intraday dynamics during the usual days and the overreactions day. There is a strong momentum effect present on the day of overreaction: prices tend to change only in the direction of the overreaction during the whole day. The fact of the overreaction becomes clear after 13:00-14:00. This gives a lot of time to explore the momentum effect in the day of overreaction. On the day after the overreaction, prices tend to go in the opposite direction: contrarian pattern is detected, which is in line with the overreaction hypothesis. Based on detected price patterns, rules of trading and trading strategies for the Ukrainian stock market are developed. Momentum Strategy (based on price patterns on the day of overreaction) generates several successful trades; close to with 90%, and their number being is profitable (trading results differ from the random ones – confirmed by t-tests). Contrarian Strategy (based on price patterns on the day after the overreaction) demonstrates low efficiency, and results do not differ from random trading.

ANOMALI OVERREACTION HYPOTHESIS DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

Penelitian ini melakukan pengujian terhadap overreaction hypothesis, dalam hipotesis ini disebutkan bahwa portofolio loser setelah perioda pengujian akan memiliki rata-rata abnormal return kumulatif yang lebih baik, sedangkan portofolio winner setelah perioda pengujian akan mengalami pembalikan return, dalam hal ini rata-rata abnormal return kumulatif return portofolio winner akan menunjukkan performance yang semakin memburuk.Fenomena pembalikan return ini dikenal dengan anomali winner-losser.Penelitian ini dengan menggunakan data saham yang terdaftar dalam LQ45 selama perioda 2016-2018, penelitian ini menemukan fenomena pembalikan return secara random, fenomena pembalikan return pada setiap minggu ke 4 secara acak membuktikan bahwa overreaction hypothesis terbukti.Hal ini membuktokan adanya fenomena anomali winner losser di passar modal Indonesia selama perioda 2016-2018.Keywords : overreaction hypothesis, contrarian strategy, market anomaly, portofolio Losser,portofolio winner

Performance of stock portfolio based on contrarian strategy in indonesia stock exchange

This study aims to determine the differences in the performance of high abnormal stock portfolio during the test period compared with the performance of the stock portfolio in the formation period, the difference in the performance of the low abnormal return of the test period compared to the portfolio performance of the stock formation period, as well as the difference in the performance of the high abnormal return stock portfolio (winner) compared with a low abnormal return (loser) test period. The sample consists of shares included in the Kompas 100 index which are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The sampling method used in this study is a tiered sampling method that is analyzed by means of the two different test. The results showed that within a period of 12 months, there was a positive difference of 10.59% in the loser stock portfolio against the winner stock portfolio in the next period. Stocks that initially had low abnormal returns (losers) experienced a greater return reversal than the winner stock portfolio return in the next period, indicating a market anomaly associated with the overreaction hypothesis.

Testing the overreaction hypothesis in the mexican stock market

<p>The objective of this work is to test the overreaction hypothesis in the Mexican Stock Market for the period of 2002-2015, using monthly data and applying the Cumulative Average Residuals (CAR) methodology via the CAPM model and the three-factor model proposed by Fama and French. The CAR model is applied to test how winner and loser portfolios perform during the period under analysis. Overall, the evidence shows that average CAR for the loser portfolio is 0.706%, whereas CAR for the winner portfolio is 0.364%, and that are statistically different; nevertheless, both portfolios are co-integrated. This research contributes to the financial literature identifying overreaction in the Mexican Stock Market during the period examined.</p>

Profitability of Contrarian Strategies: Evidence From the Stock Exchange of Mauritius

The aim of this paper is to assess the profitability of contrarian strategies on the Stock exchange of Mauritius. Using data from 2001 till 2009 for all 40 listed companies on the official market, the study shows little support in favour of the contrarian effect. In particular, the losers portfolio seems to outperform the winners portfolio in one out of nine strategies. However, when considering the market return, negative excess returns are noted for all portfolios across all strategies, providing strong support for a passive portfolio management strategy and weak support for overreaction hypothesis. In addition, the Size, Price, Earnings to Price (E/P) and Book to Market (B/M) Effect has been tested. The results suggest that the average market return is greater than size-based portfolios and price-based portfolios. However, when accounting for the E/P and the B/M effect, there seems to be a strategy which can beat the market. Nevertheless, most strategies for E/P and B/M portfolios indicate insignificant excess returns. In general, the results of this paper are undoubtedly in sharp contrast with most popular studies in developed markets. However, it is observed that investors on the SEM may not possess similar characteristics to those of well-advanced markets. In particular, according to Harvey (1995), emerging market countries are sometimes relatively isolated from capital markets of other countries.

Behavioral Finance Market Hypotheses

Although the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is the leading theory describing the behavior of financial markets, researchers have increasingly questioned its efficacy since the 1980s because of its inconsistencies with empirical evidence. This challenge to EMH has resulted in the development of new concepts and theories. These new concepts reject the assumption of investor rationality. The most promising and convincing among these are the adaptive markets hypothesis, overreaction hypothesis, underreaction hypothesis, noisy market hypothesis, functional fixation hypothesis, and fractal market hypothesis. The chapter provides a brief description of these theories and proposes using a behavioral perspective to analyze financial markets.

ANALISIS PEMBALIKAN HARGA SAHAM DI INDONESIA BERBASIS OVERREACTION HYPOTHESIS, UKURAN PERUSAHAAN, LIKUIDITAS SAHAM, DAN BID ASK SPREAD

Fenomena pembalikan harga saham pada kelompok saham winner maupun kelompok saham loser dalam aktivitas pasar modal seringkali ditemui. Berangkat dari hal inilah banyak peneliti di berbagai negara kembali mempertanyakan apakah selama ini keputusan investor selalu rasional ataukah irasional ?. Pertanyaan yang sama juga banyak disampaikan para peneliti yang mengkaji di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) yang menemukan hasil beragam. Berangkat dari permasalahan tersebut dalam penelitian ini kembali dilakukan kajian mengenai perilaku investor dari sudut pandang overreaction hypothesis, ukuran perusahaan, likuiditas saham, dan bid-ask spread. Sejalan dengan hal tersebut penelitian difokuskan kepada saham – saham yang termasuk dalam kelompok LQ-45 pada tahun 2011 sampai dengan tahun 2013 dengan menggunakan regresi data panel sebagai alat analisis dan pengujian hipotesis.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan: pertama, terdapat peristiwa pembalikan harga pada saham – saham dalam kategori loser kelompok saham LQ-45 dalam bulan Oktober 2011, Februari 2012, dan Desember 2012. Terjadinya pembalikan harga saham disebabkan oleh adanya perilaku overreaction dari para investor. Kedua, baik secara parsial maupun simultan hasil penelitian menunjukkan tidak terbukti adanya pengaruh antara ukuran perusahaan, likuiditas saham, dan bid-ask spread terhadap peristiwa pembalikan harga saham pada saham – saham loser. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa informasi mengenai saham yang berkenaan dengan analisis teknikal dalam periode pengamatan tidak lagi menjadi acuan para investor untuk mengambil keputusan berinvestasi

Overreaction Hypothesis and Reaction of Borsa Istanbul to Dow-Jones

The aim of this study is to investigate whether or not there are any over-reactions to the positive and negative events of the Borsa Istanbul 100 index (BIST-100) in relation to the Dow Jones Industrial index (DJIA). The daily stock indexes between January 2010 and June 2016 are used in this research. The research finding showed that BIST-100 reacts in the same way as DJIA up to 3.31% and the reaction decreases and was lost between 30 and 60 days against the positive changes. In case of adverse events the BIST 100 shows abnormal decline in protecting the efficient market hypothesis is valid for 30 days after the event, however, the decline is reversed until the 60’th days when all losses are compensated. This terminates the validity of the efficient market hypothesis. This study shows that the BIST 100 index does not comply with the efficient market hypothesis and demonstrate the validity of the overreaction hypothesis. Study results include stock investments, whose findings will have an impact on portfolio management decisions of investors.

Call-Put Volatility Spreads and Option Returns in the KOSPI 200 Index Options Market

This study analyzes whether KOSPI200 option returns can be predicted by call-put implied volatility spreads. Doran et al. (2013) show that call-put implied volatility spreads predict the option returns of a specific moneyness as well as underlying asset returns in the US options market. Our study examines whether the same results are shown in the KOSPI200 options market, which has different characteristics in investor compositions and trading behaviors. According to the results, the call-put implied volatility spreads cannot predict the future returns of the underlying index significantly in the KOSPI200 options market. Only, the call-put spreads can predict the future option returns. More specifically, the increase in implied volatility spreads is able to predict the decrease in call option returns and the increase in put option returns in the KOSPI200 options market. This supports the overreaction hypothesis in all ranges of option moneyness, which is in contrast to the result of Doran et al. (2003).