Covid-19 and Presidential Popularity in Latin America

The current pandemic challenged political leaders. As governments introduced containment policies, presidential approvals in several countries started to rise. This phenomenon brought back the discussion on the Rally-’round-the-Flag effect, which refers to the public's propensity to put aside political differences and support presidents during episodes of international crises. By focusing on four Latin American presidents, we analyze such effect and the conditions that mediate it, considering its significant variation in the region. We propose that the change in presidential popularity is short-lived and ultimately conditioned by the timing and stringency of the policy responses, the pandemic's framing, and the opposition's opportunities for policy criticism.

Conditional Accountability for the Economy, Insecurity, and Corruption Across Latin American Party Systems

ABSTRACTThe association between how citizens perceive economic performance, insecurity, or corruption and how they evaluate the president varies systematically across Latin American countries and within them over time. In particular, while presidential popularity reflects these outcomes in the average Latin American country, survey data from 2006–17 confirm that the connection between government performance and presidential approval is generally stronger when unfragmented party systems or single-party majority governments make assessments of political responsibility easier. While these results suggest that the region’s citizens do not blindly blame the president for outcomes where political responsibility should be shared, they also remind us that there are many countries in the region where fragmented party systems weaken the conditions for effective political accountability.

Mexico insecurity to weigh on AMLO approval

Subject Presidential popularity. Significance Several public opinion surveys published this month show President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)’s approval ratings to have fallen to their lowest levels since he took office in 2018. The polls suggest public disapproval has doubled or even tripled in some cases, particularly among Mexico’s most educated. While interviewees across the board acknowledge that the government has done much to ease poverty and support vulnerable groups such as the elderly, the polls also show respondents to be critical of its handling of issues that were at the centre of AMLO’s electoral campaign, such as corruption and security. Impacts AMLO’s relaxed attitude towards COVID-19 will play increasingly badly with the public and potentially with members of his own government. Declining support will not necessarily see AMLO ousted in the 2022 recall referendum -- he is still more trusted than other politicians. The falling popularity of Morena will not necessarily boost support for other parties, whose shares of voting intentions remain low.

Determinants of presidential approval ratings: Cross-country analyses with reference to Latin America

Despite a conventional belief that prosperity boosts presidential popularity, research on the effect of economic and political factors on presidential popularity shows wide variation. What are the main contributing factors when people evaluate their political leaders? How do economic conditions and perception of corruption influence people’s evaluations of their political leaders? Using comprehensive, up-to-date panel data covering 20 countries, mostly from Latin America, and also including South Korea and the United States, from 1988 to 2016, this study shows that the effect of gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and unemployment rate are strong throughout the period considered. From the year 2000, inflation and perception of corruption become significant. In highly corrupt countries, however, the significance of corruption becomes more salient, together with GDP growth rate and unemployment rate, as citizens of these countries begin to evaluate their leaders in terms of their determination to address these problems. In countries with low approval ratings, voters generally weigh GDP growth rate more heavily.

Public support for Latin American presidents: The cyclical model in comparative perspective

What characterizes the dynamics of presidential popularity? Research based on the United States of America finds popularity exhibits an almost law-like cyclicality over a president’s term: high post-election “honeymoon” approval rates deteriorate before experiencing an end-of-term boost as new elections approach. We contend that cyclical approval dynamics are not specific to the USA, but rather characteristic of presidential systems more generally, despite heterogeneity in their socio-economic and political contexts. Testing this proposition requires overcoming a key empirical problem: lack of comparable data. We do so by employing time-series inputs from 324 opinion surveys from a new publicly available database—the Executive Approval Database 1.0—to craft quarterly measures of popularity across 18 Latin American contemporary presidential democracies. Our analysis strongly confirms the cyclical approval model for the region. The conclusion identifies avenues for future research on the relationships across approval, presidentialism, and electoral, institutional, and socio-economic factors afforded by the new data resource we present here.

Do Korean-Japanese Historical Disputes Generate Rally Effects?

Does ongoing animosity between South Korea and Japan over the disputed Dokdo Islands and other issues that originated from historical disputes generate rally effects in Korean domestic politics? This article argues that the Dokdo Islands dispute—and related disputed issues rooted in the colonial experience of Korea under Japan's rule historically—strongly influence Korean presidents’ abilities to effectively mobilize domestic support for not only the issues, but particularly the public opinion of presidents. Using data on Korean presidents’ approval ratings between 1993 and 2016, this article shows that Korea's bilateral disputes with Japan tend to promote Korean presidential popularity. The findings suggest that external crises with Japan related to historical disputes have positive political effects on leadership ratings in Korea.

Gendered Opportunities and Constraints: How Executive Sex and Approval Influence Executive Decree Issuance

Do female executives exercise the authority of their office distinctly from their male counterparts? Anecdotal evidence suggests women legislators are likely to govern in a more consensual manner than men. Yet there has been little systematic research extending such claims to women in executive office. Using an original data set, we evaluate one aspect of policy agenda setting—rates of executive decree issuance—among four male–female pairs of Latin American presidents between 2000 and 2014. Female presidents are generally less prone to rule by decree, but this relationship is conditioned by presidential popularity. Female executives with high presidential approval ratings are less likely to rule via unilateral action than similarly popular male executives, but the gendered differences in decree issuance disappear when executives possess low approval ratings. Our findings have implications for understanding the potential benefits of feminine leadership styles for executive–legislative relations and good governance.

Now or later? A dynamic analysis of judicial appointments

Observing substantial variations in Senate confirmation durations, existing studies have tried to explain when the Senate takes more or less time to confirm presidential nominees. However, they have largely ignored the president’s incentives to nominate someone who he expects will be delayed and do not specify conditions under which delay occurs. To improve on existing literature, I develop a dynamic model of presidential appointments in which the Senate decides whether to delay as well as whether to confirm the nominee. The model shows that the president rationally chooses a nominee who he expects the Senate will delay if the status quo belongs to a certain interval in a one-dimensional policy space. Moreover, the president sometimes chooses a nominee who may fail to gain confirmation after a delay. Finally, the effects of important factors on expected confirmation duration are analyzed: most interestingly, as presidential popularity increases, the Senate takes longer to confirm the nominee.