Forecasting and Analysis Tools for Regional Industries’ Dynamics

The article is devoted to the author’s approach and tools for regional industries’ modeling, analysis and forecasting, following the general idea of splitting time series into four components: trend, cycles, seasonal component, and residuals. However, the authors introduce new approaches, models, metrics, and identification algorithms, and the components’ interaction structures, having included the analysis of 12 industries in 82 regions of Russia. The models and forecast accuracy were tested on 3–12 month forecasts, thus proving their high accuracy. Therefore, the article proposes not only new systematic econometric tools but a methodology for decision making, developed to provide stable and adequate characteristics of complex non-linear evolutionary dynamics of Russian regions.

Using Joinpoint Regression for the Analysis of Trends in Syphilis Incidence in Poland in the Years 1950–2017

Syphilis is a bacterial sexually transmitted disease (STD), whose main route of infection is through sexual contact. In order to diagnose syphilis, Treponema pallidum must be detected in the material sampled from a lesion and a blood test must be performed in order to detect serological response to syphilis. Since 1946, a statutory obligation to report all cases of syphilis has been in force in Poland, which is why data concerning the incidence is available. The aim of this paper is to analyse trends in syphilis incidence in the years 1950–2017 using Joinpoint Regression and to present the impact of prophylaxis and education of society on syphilis prevention. The Joinpoint Regression method indicated the splitting time points of the trend corresponding to real changes in incidence, which corroborates the purpose of using the method in question in epidemiological studies.

Ink tack stability readings of the offset thermochromic inks

Purpose This paper aims to analyse the tack stability measurement readings of thermochromic offset inks. For this purpose, three reversible leuco-dye formed thermochromic inks were used to evaluate their tack. The used inks differ in their activation temperature, colour, drying mechanism, viscosity and chemical content. Thermochromic offset inks differ from conventional inks in formulation and size of colourants due to the presence of the microcapsules. Design/methodology/approach Printing inks in offset lithography must have sufficient tack so they can be transported from a reservoir onto the substrate. The ink transfer takes place through the ink splitting by inking rollers, printing plate and blanket transport. An IGT Tackoscope device was used to produce the dynamic readings of ink tack as a function of distribution and splitting time. The data can be used for prediction of the ink press stability under controlled settings, such as temperature. Findings This research explains the temperature and velocity influence on the tack stability measurement readings of thermochromic inks. It also gives an insight of the chemical compounds that dictate the tack measuring reading results. Originality/value Development of new printing inks, such as thermochromic printing inks, may affect the printing of different products. The research was conducted due to a lack of available data for the tack of thermochromic inks.

Splitting Decomposition Homotopy Perturbation Method To Solve One -Dimensional Navier -Stokes Equation

We have proposed in this research a new scheme to find analytical approximating solutions for Navier-Stokes equation of one dimension. The new methodology depends on combining Adomian decomposition and Homotopy perturbation methods with the splitting time scheme for differential operators . The new methodology is applied on two problems of the test: The first has an exact solution while the other one has no exact solution. The numerical results we obtained from solutions of two problems, have good convergent and high accuracy in comparison with the two traditional Adomian decomposition and Homotopy perturbationmethods .

Penampilan Bibit Kelapa F1 Hasil Silangan Genjah x Dalam Mapanget S4

<p><span style="font-size: medium;">ABSTRAK </span></p><p>Tanaman kelapa yang ditanam petani umumnya tipe kelapa Dalam dengan pertambahan tinggi batang cepat. Ketersediaan tenaga pemanjat saat ini semakin sulit didapat, sehingga dibutuhkan varietas kelapa yang berbuah cepat, berbatang pendek dan pertambahan tinggi batang lambat. Varietas kelapa tersebut dapat dirakit dengan menyilangkan kelapa Genjah dengan kelapa Dalam yang pertambahan tinggi batangnya lambat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui penampilan bibit dua genotipe kelapa hibrida hasil persilangan Genjah Kuning Bali (GKB), Genjah Raja (GRA) dengan Dalam Mapanget generasi selfing ke-4 (DMT-S4) serta Genjah Kuning Nias (GKN ) x Dalam Tenga (DTA) atau Khina-1 sebagai pembanding. Penelitian menggunakan Rancangan Acak Kelompok (RAK) dengan tiga perlakuan dan sembilan ulangan, masing-masing ulangan terdiri dari 12 tanaman. Perlakuan yang diuji adalah A = GKB x DMT-S4, B = GRA x DMT-S4 dan C = GKN x DTA. Hasil penelitian pertumbuhan dan perkembangan tingkat bibit dari ketiga genotipe kelapa hibrida tersebut memperlihatkan bahwa kecambah dari hibrida hasil persilangan GKB x DMT-S4 memiliki viabilitas tertinggi yang diikuti oleh hasil persilangan GKN x DTA dan GRA x DMT-S4. Kecepatan kecambah dan kecepatan pecah daun bibit ketiga hibrida tersebut tidak berbeda nyata. Jumlah daun bibit hasil persilangan GKN x DTA lebih banyak dari hasil persilangan GKB x DMT-S4 dan GRA x DMT-S4 (umur 2 hingga 5 bulan), namun pada umur 6 bulan jumlah daun bibit hasil persilangan GKB x DMT S4 (7,75 helai) tidak berbeda nyata dengan GKN x DTA (7,97 helai). Rata-rata pertambahan daun/bulan bibit dari setiap hibrida tersebut adalah: 1,28 helai (GKB x DMT S4), 1,13 helai (GRA x DMT S4) dan 1,21 helai (GKN x DTA). Berdasarkan penelitian ini diketahui bahwa bibit hasil persilangan GKB x DMT S4 dan GRA x DMT S4 lebih pendek dengan lingkar batang lebih kecil dibanding GKN x DTA. Bibit kelapa hibrida hasil persilangan GKB x DMT S4 dan GKN x DMT S4 memberikan harapan dapat diperoleh varietas kelapa yang cepat berbuah, berbatang pendek dan batang lambat menjadi tinggi.</p><p>Kata kunci: Kelapa hibrida, bibit, pendek, cepat berbuah.</p><p> </p><p><strong><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 115%; letter-spacing: -0.35pt; font-family: 'Arial Bold'; font-size: 14pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Arial Bold'; mso-font-width: 96%; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: IN; mso-fareast-language: IN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Coconut Hybrid Performance of Dwarf x Mapanget Fourth Selfing Generation</span></span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">ABSTRACT </span></p><p>Coconut palm planted by farmers is generally Tall type coconut which grows fast. Availability of climbers is limited, therefore, coconut varieties that are early mature, short and slowly growing trunk are needed. The coconut varieties can be assembled by crossing Dwarf coconut palm with Tall coconut palm which slowly growing trunk. This research aims to know the appearance of hybrid coconut seedlings from crosses of two superior varieties Dwarf coconut Bali Yellow Dwarf (BYD), Raja Dwarf (RBD) with Mapanget Tall Fourth Selfing Generation (MTT S4) and Nias Yellow Dwarf (NYD) x Tenga Tall (TAT) or Khina-1 as a comparison. This experimental was arranged in Randomized Block Design (RBD) with three treatments and nine replications, each replication was consisted of 12 palms. The treatment is A = BYD x MTT-S4, B = RBD x MTT-S4 dan C = NYD x TAT. Results showed that hybrid from BYD x MTT S4 has the highest viability followed by NYD x TAT and RBD x MTT S4. Germination rate and leaf splitting time of three hybrid were not significantly different. More over leaves number of NYD x TAT is more than that of BYD x MTT S4 and RBD x MTT S4 (ages 2 to 5 months), but at the age of 6 months, leaves number of BYD x MTT S4 (7.75) was not significantly different from NYD x TAT (7.97). While the average leaves increase per month of each hybrid are: 1.28 (BYD x MTT S4), 1.13 (RBD x MTT S4) and 1.21 (NYD x TAT). The result of this study showed that coconut hybrid from BYD x MTT S4 and RBD x MTT S4 are shorter than NYD x TAT. Hybrid lines of BYD x MTT S4 and RBD x MTT S4 have a smaller girth of seedling than coconut hybrid of NYD x TAT. Coconut hybrid lines of BYD x MTT S4 and RBD x MTT S4 are promising in producing coconut varieties that early mature, short and slowly growing trunk.</p><p>Keywords: Coconut hybrid, seedling, dwarf, early mature.</p>