Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on a NRS-RF Model: A Case Study of the Song-Liao River Basin, China

The vulnerability of water resources is an important criterion for evaluating the carrying capacity of water resources systems under the influence of climate change and human activities. Moreover, assessment and prediction of river basins’ water resources vulnerability are important means to assess the water resources security state of river basins and identify possible problems in future water resources systems. Based on the constructed indicator system of water resources vulnerability assessment in Song-Liao River Basin, this paper uses the neighborhood rough set (abbreviated as NRS) method to reduce the dimensionality of the original indicator system to remove redundant attributes. Then, assessment indicators’ standard values after dimensionality reduction are taken as the evaluation sample, and the random forest regression (abbreviated as RF) model is used to assess the water resources vulnerability of the river basin. Finally, based on data under three different future climate and socio-economic scenarios, scenario predictions are made on the vulnerability of future water resources. The results show that the overall water resources vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin has not improved significantly in the past 18 years, and the overall vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin is in the level V of moderate to high vulnerability. In the future scenario 1, the overall water resources vulnerability of the river basin will improve, and it is expected to achieve an improvement to the level III of moderate to low vulnerability. At the same time, the natural vulnerability and vulnerability of carrying capacity will increase significantly in the future, and the man-made vulnerability will increase slowly, which will deteriorate to the level V of moderate to high vulnerability under Scenario 3. Therefore, taking active measures can significantly reduce the vulnerability of nature and carrying capacity, but man-made vulnerability will become a bottleneck restricting the fragility of the overall water resources of the river basin in the future.

Integrated Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment: A Multidimensional Approach and Geographic Information System Based in Fès, Meknès, and Ifrane Perimeters, Morocco

Water resources are disproportionately distributed, and more and more problems related to this precious resource are being reported around the world due to anthropogenic pressures and global environmental changes. This paper focuses on assessing the vulnerability of water resources in an integrated way, by taking into account hydrological, environmental, socio-economic and pollution factors, in order to delineate sensitive areas of water resources under a geographic information system. The framework for assessing the water resources vulnerability in the Fès, Meknès, and Ifrane perimeters was based on a participatory approach through a survey. The data collected on the identified factors are then processed under ArcGIS tool to aggregate the normalized value into a water resources vulnerability index. The result shows that the degree of vulnerability of water resources in most of the study area is considered to be at the "threshold" to "non-vulnerable". However, three (3) main areas were considered to be "moderately vulnerable" to "highly vulnerable" precisely in the South of the city of Meknes (Zone 1), from the West of the city of Fès (Zone 2), and finally the Dayet Ifrah area (Zone 3). The sensitivity analysis showed that five factors have more impact on the overall water resources vulnerability map: topography, poverty, water withdrawal, population density, and access to drinking water. The result of this study could help integrated water resources management planners take action to improve the overall water quantity and quality in the area, and it can be extended to a larger scale like regional, national or cross-country.

Evaluation of Water Resources Vulnerability in the Coastal Areas of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea under Seawater Intrusion——A case study of Longkou City, Shandong Province

In view of the increased vulnerability of water resources system caused by seawater intrusion in the coastal areas of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, this paper based on the VSD(Vulnerability Scoping Diagram) model to construct the water resource vulnerability evaluation index system of “exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity” under seawater intrusion. Then use entropy-TOPSIS method to evaluate water resource vulnerability and divide the levels. In addition, take Longkou City of Shandong Province as an example to conduct empirical research. The results show that the water resource vulnerability of Longkou City is at a strong vulnerability level. The water resources system is under obvious pressure. Population density, per capita GDP, temperature and precipitation change are the main factors of the system pressure. Seawater intrusion has a high degree of impact on water resources vulnerability and water resource system is more sensitive to groundwater level, chloride concentration and other stimuli. The improvement of water use efficiency and scientific and technological investment contribute to the significant enhancement of the adaptability of the water resources system of Longkou City.

Water Politics in Asia

Transboundary water courses abound in Asia, which is experiencing risks with regards to the use of water and the sustainability of water ecology. Many of the Asian states are facing growing pressures to react to global change, with a high level of both poverty and population growth. Asia’s water politics have been explored from a range of perspectives, reflecting the complicated discourses, processes, and narratives when the global South respond to water-related challenges. Within these nations, the low economic development level and the underdevelopment of key democratic institutions as well as limited knowledge in water management have posed challenges to the region to setting up efficient institutional arrangements to promote sustainable development. The geographical conditions make the sharing of international rivers more complicated. Large-scale rivers are often found to run through a number of countries, resulting in each state possessing asymmetric interests in the shared water resources. Vulnerability in the river basin is often unevenly spread among riparian states, adding to the difficulty of countries’ peacefully resolving tensions over the shared water resources. Moreover, regional security in South Asia is considered to be unstable and rapidly changing. Some international rivers run near national borders, complicating the existing border disputes in some places. Questions are raised if the region has developed strong resilience when faced with water-related risks such as water scarcity and degradation.

Assessing and Predicting the Water Resources Vulnerability under Various Climate-Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin, China

The Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin plays an important strategic role in China’s economic development, but severe water resources problems restrict the development of the three basins. Most of the existing research is focused on the trends of single hydrological and meteorological indicators. However, there is a lack of research on the cause analysis and scenario prediction of water resources vulnerability (WRV) in the three basins, which is the very important foundation for the management of water resources. First of all, based on the analysis of the causes of water resources vulnerability, this article set up the evaluation index system of water resource vulnerability from three aspects: water quantity, water quality and disaster. Then, we use the Improved Blind Deletion Rough Set (IBDRS) method to reduce the dimension of the index system, and we reduce the original 24 indexes to 12 evaluation indexes. Third, by comparing the accuracy of random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) models, we use the RF model with high fitting accuracy as the evaluation and prediction model. Finally, we use 12 evaluation indexes and an RF model to analyze the trend and causes of water resources vulnerability in three basins during 2000–2015, and further predict the scenarios in 2020 and 2030. The results show that the vulnerability level of water resources in the three basins has been improved during 2000–2015, and the three river basins should follow the development of scenario 1 to ensure the safety of water resources. The research proved that the combination of IBDRS and an RF model is a very effective method to evaluate and forecast the vulnerability of water resources in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin.