Food Security Indices In Ukraine: Forecast Methods And Trends

The paper offers the calculation procedure of the integrated Food Security Index (FSI) based on the three-component analysis: economic accessibility, physical security, the sufficiency of consumption. It offers the methodology for forecasting under the conditions of macroeconomic instability based on the Food Security Indices. It shows that the standard forecasting methodology based on the separation of trend (deterministic) and random components cannot be applied in conditions of alternating intervals of economic growth and crises. In particular emphasis is placed on Jackson-Watson's methodology, which is based on the analysis of the internal structure of the process. The three-parameter ARIMA model was used in the forecast estimates of the Food Security Indices. The applied methods are complemented by exponential smoothing, damped trend model, linear and exponential smoothing, namely, Brown method, and two-parameter smoothing method (Holt's method), Pearl-Reed curve model. The research offers a food security risk assessment procedure in virtue of the econometric forecast error properties. Based on data mining, the results of forecasting the individual indices and the integrated Food Security Index make it possible to state a satisfactory condition that is unlikely to change shortly.

Assessment of the Influence of the National Bank of Ukraine Monetary Policy on Food Security of the State

Food security is central to the state's economic security system and is an important component of its sovereignty. Attracting financial resources by agricultural producers on favorable terms has a direct impact on improving agricultural infrastructure, product quality management systems, modernization of means of production, etc., which contributes to food security in terms of its main components: food availability and food security. At the same time, cheaper consumer loans for the population can strengthen an equally important element of food security – the affordability of food. The object of the study is the processes of food security regulation of the country due to changes in the discount rate of the National Bank. The subject of the study is a set of theoretical, methodical and practical aspects of the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine and their impact on the formation of food security. The purpose of the article is a comprehensive analysis and assessment of the impact of monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine, which is recently reflected in lowering the discount rate on food security, which is expressed in the availability of credit resources to meet consumer demand and modernize agricultural enterprises. The analysis of the discount rate and interest rates for loans on different periods, which were given to the enterprises of Ukraine, was performed. The authors propose to improve the financial component of the integrated food security mechanism, which aims to ensure the use of economic levers and create conditions for attracting financial resources for the functioning of the food security system by forming a system of multi-channel financing.

Exacerbated inequalities: Implications of COVID-19 for the socio-economic rights of women and children in South Sudan

This article critically examines measures adopted by the Revitalised Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) in South Sudan to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. It analyses the implications of such measures on constitutionalism and socio-economic rights of women and children. In so doing, it reveals that policy decisions adopted by the RTGoNU exclusively focused on fighting the Coronavirus at the expense of the socio-economic rights of zol meskin (common person). In particular, the decisions lack supportive social protection packages to cushion the low-income households that depend on daily hustling, impacted by the measures adopted. This led to a disproportionate impact on women and children whose rights to livelihoods and education are more adversely affected. Such policy decisions could deepen poverty margins that already exist in South Sudanese society. As schools remain closed, with the exception of primary eight and senior four candidates,1 the hope of more than 2.2 million children who are already out of the education system hangs in the balance.2 In sum, the article demonstrates that the fight against COVID-19 appears to have been won but at a cost of losing the fight against already-rampant socio-economic inequalities. This in part is due to the fact that, on the one hand, measures adopted to fight the pandemic appear to be successful at flattening the curve as revealed by the cumulative numbers of patients and deaths but, on the other, such policies have arguably exacerbated the socio-economic conditions of the poor who already live on the brink of famine as warned by the United Nations agencies in keeping with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification reports.3 The article thus recommends that the government and policy makers should consider three critical lessons for the future: (a) strengthening social welfare sector to protect vulnerable households from sudden onsets; (b) enhance disaster risk and preparedness capacities to effectively deal with pandemics in a way that protects the most vulnerable people; and (c) strengthen democratic governance and rule of law as catalysts for well-managed emergency responses.

OPTIMALISASI PERLINDUNGAN KONSUMEN PANGAN INDUSTRI RUMAH TANGGA MELALUI PENGUATAN SISTEM KEAMANAN PANGAN TERPADU

<div class="page" title="Page 1"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><span>This study further examines the previous research that has formulated an integrated food safety system development model in realizing the optimal implementation of PIRT product distribution licenses. With the socio-legal research approach method, it does not only examine normative matters, but also data collection in the field through comprehensive observation and interviews with related parties and is analyzed qualitatively. What is more emphasized from the results of this study is focused on aspects of the embodiment of consumer food consumer protection in the home industry through strengthening synergistic and integrated food security systems. BasedonLawNumber18Year2012concerningfood,alegalchannelis opened for consumers to claim compensation when they suffer losses due to consuming food that causes harm to it, along with the circulation of food that does not meet health requirements namely, safe, quality, and nutritious so that can cause harm to consumers. </span></p></div></div></div>

The Overview of Asean Rice Trade Toward Asean Integrated Food Security (AIFS)

ASEAN takes serious effort to address the challenge of Food Security, within the region of Southeast Asia. Especially for rice trade among ASEAN country was taken place a long ago. In 2015 we would be integragted market. The aims of study are (1) to analysys the potential of rice supply and demand (2) the effect of trade restriction (export and import restriction). The models were constructed by econometric simulation analysis with time series data from 1984-2007. The results shows: (1) the trend of ASEAN paddy production was increasing. The average increase of the ASEAN paddy production was 130,46 MT/year with the rate 2,84 percent/year (2) the effect of export restriction will be increase an export price more than 10 percent, and the effect of import restriction will be increase an import price in all importer countries.