The Overview of Asean Rice Trade Toward Asean Integrated Food Security (AIFS)

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 78
Author(s):  
Evi Nurifah Julitasari
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Export Price ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Integrated Food Security ◽  
Export Restriction ◽  
Rice Trade

ASEAN takes serious effort to address the challenge of Food Security, within the region of Southeast Asia. Especially for rice trade among ASEAN country was taken place a long ago. In 2015 we would be integragted market. The aims of study are (1) to analysys the potential of rice supply and demand (2) the effect of trade restriction (export and import restriction). The models were constructed by econometric simulation analysis with time series data from 1984-2007. The results shows: (1) the trend of ASEAN paddy production was increasing. The average increase of the ASEAN paddy production was 130,46 MT/year with the rate 2,84 percent/year (2) the effect of export restriction will be increase an export price more than 10 percent, and the effect of import restriction will be increase an import price in all importer countries.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Pass Through in a Small Open Economy: A case study of West African Monetary Zone

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 275-290
Author(s):  
Rahman olanrewaju Raji
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Import Prices ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

The  study investigated the magnitude of exchange rate pass through to import prices and domestic prices    (consumer price index) in WAMZ economy using quarterly time-series data between 2000 and 2010 with the aids of Vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling technique supported with Johansen co-integration approach cross country analysis comprising of Gambia, Ghana, Nigeria and Sierra-Leone. The study discovered that transmission of exchange rate to import prices is more when compared with consumer price in the zone while the contributions of exchange rate to import price are not less 13 percent at average in entire zone. Consumer price index was explained by exchange rate pass through with an average of 26 percent in the zone where the pass through to consumer price is less than two percent in Ghanaian economy. The Taylor (2000) hypothesis was observed in the study where Ghana and Nigeria are the outlier economies while Nigeria established a positive relationship between interest rate volatility and exchange rate pass through to import prices.

scholarly journals Analysis of Budget Imbalance Dynamics in Kenya

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 352
Author(s):  
Alex Oguso ◽  
Francis M. Mwega ◽  
Nelson H. Wawire ◽  
Purna Samanta
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Seeking Behavior ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
The Government

<p><em>Kenya needs substantial and sustained fiscal consolidation to create fiscal space for financing the government’s election pledges, the Vision 2030 development projects, and sustainable development goals. However, the government has found it hard to sustain its fiscal consolidation attempts. This study investigates the fiscal consolidation constraints that act through the budget imbalance dynamics in Kenya using the </em><em>Olivera-Tanzi effect approach.</em><em> The study covers the period 2000-2015</em><em> using time series data and employs three </em><em>Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) error correction models</em><em> in the analysis. The study showed that a </em><em>rise in the general price levels in the economy, adjustment of minimum wages, rise</em><em> in perceived levels of corruption in the public sector and the political budget cycles (occurrence of a general election) worsen the budget imbalances (deficits) thus </em><em>constrain fiscal consolidation efforts in Kenya. The study also demonstrated that </em><em>budget imbalance dynamics in Kenya could partly be explained by the Olivera-Tanzi proposition. </em><em>The study rec</em><em>ommends measures to reduce the fiscal imbalance gap in Kenya, which include controlling both supply and demand side inflationary pressure and dealing with rent seeking behavior in the public sector.</em></p>

scholarly journals PERMINTAAN JAGUNG SEBAGAI BAHAN BAKU INDUSTRI PAKAN TERNAK DI INDONESIA

Agro Ekonomi ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Diah Ariyanti ◽  
Any Suryantini ◽  
Masyhuri Masyhuri
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Domestic Price ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Feed Industry ◽  
Soybean Cake ◽  
Good For

The objectives of this research are to know the factors influencingdomestic maize demand, import maize demand, and total maize demand asraw material for feed industry in Indonesia, also their trend at five yearslater. The research use time series data. during 1976-2004. Simultaneousequations used to analyze domestic and import maize demand as rawmaterial for feed industry in Indonesia, while ordinary least square (OLS)used to analyze total maize demand as raw material for feed industry inIndonesia. The results show that domestic maize demand influenced negatively by maize domestic price and influenced positively by soybean cake import price, and trend of time. Cowpopulation, maize import price, and soybean cake import price influence import maize demand negatively, while fowl population and trend of time influence import maize demand positively. Total maize demand for feed industry in Indonesia positively influenced by soybean cake import price and cow population, and negatively influenced by maize domestic price. Soybean cake iscomplementary good for domestic maize and total maize, but becomesubstitution good for import maize. The trend of maize demand, includingdomestic and import maize demand, as raw material for feed industry inIndonesia increasing in the future.

scholarly journals Quantifying the Opportunity Limits of Automatic Residential Electric Load Shaping

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 3204
Author(s):  
Robert Cruickshank ◽  
Gregor Henze ◽  
Rajagopalan Balaji ◽  
Bri-Mathias Hodge ◽  
Anthony Florita
Keyword(s):  
Energy Use ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Electric Utility ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Stochastic Methods ◽  
Electric Load ◽  
Phase Reconstruction ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Reconstruction Methods

Electric utility residential demand response programs typically reduce load a few times a year during periods of peak energy use. In the future, utilities and consumers may monetarily and environmentally benefit from continuously shaping load by alternatively encouraging or discouraging the use of electricity. One way to shape load and introduce elasticity is to broadcast forecasts of dynamic electricity prices that orchestrate electricity supply and demand in order to maximize the efficiency of conventional generation and the use of renewable resources including wind and solar energy. A binary control algorithm that influences the on and off states of end uses was developed and applied to empirical time series data to estimate price-based instantaneous opportunities for shedding and adding electric load. To overcome the limitations of traditional stochastic methods in quantifying diverse, non-Gaussian, non-stationary distributions of observed appliance behaviour, recent developments in wavelet-based analysis were applied to capture and simulate time-frequency domain behaviour. The performance of autoregressive and spectral reconstruction methods was compared, with phase reconstruction providing the best simulation ensembles. Results show spatiotemporal differences in the amount of load that can be shed and added, which suggest further investigation is warranted in estimating the benefits anticipated from the wide-scale deployment of continuous automatic residential load shaping. Empirical data and documented software code are included to assist in reproducing and extending this work.

scholarly journals GLOBAL MARKET OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: CURRENT STATE AND PERSPECTIVES OF DEVELOPMENT

2020 ◽  
pp. 27-39
Author(s):  
K. Bezugla ◽  
N. Kostyuchenko
Keyword(s):  
New Technologies ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Petroleum Production ◽  
The World

The paper is devoted to the peculiarities and perspectives of the global petroleum market development. The peculiarities of supply and demand formation at the global market of petroleum products are investigated in the article. The balance of supply and demand at the petroleum market is determined. The paper outlines the peculiarities of pricing for petroleum products. The dynamics of price changes on the global petroleum market in the period of 2010-2020 is studied. The conclusion was made that there is a price volatility on the global petroleum market. An analysis of the dynamics and structure of the world petroleum production by regions revealed that the total output of oil has increased due to the development of new technologies and due to the increased efficiency of petroleum production. The performed forecasting made it possible to conclude that petroleum price is expected to increase in the coming two periods. That will allow to establish a balance between supply and demand at the petroleum products’ market. Accordingly, the equalization of supply and demand for petroleum products is forecasted (even despite the crisis in the world). The econometric method of economic analysis was applied in the paper. The authors constructed an additive model for time series data to predict the dynamics of prices on the global market of petroleum products. The model was designed based on 16 observations in the period of October 2016 – July 2020.

scholarly journals Challenges in estimating the impact of vaccination with sparse data

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kayoko Shioda ◽  
Cynthia Schuck-Paim ◽  
Robert J. Taylor ◽  
Roger Lustig ◽  
Lone Simonsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Vaccine Impact ◽  
Pca Method ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTBackgroundThe synthetic control (SC) model is a powerful tool to quantify the population-level impact of vaccines, because it can adjust for trends unrelated to vaccination using a composite of control diseases. Because vaccine impact studies are often conducted using smaller subnational datasets, we evaluated the performance of SC models with sparse time series data. To obtain more robust estimates of vaccine effects from noisy time series, we proposed a possible alternative approach, “STL+PCA” method (seasonal-trend decomposition plus principal component analysis), which first extracts smoothed trends from the control time series and uses them to adjust the outcome.MethodsUsing both the SC and STL+PCA models, we estimated the impact of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) on pneumonia hospitalizations among cases <12 months and 80+ years of age during 2004-2014 at the subnational level in Brazil. The performance of these models was also compared using simulation analyses.ResultsThe SC model was able to adjust for trends unrelated to PCV10 in larger states but not in smaller states. The simulation analysis confirmed that the SC model failed to select an appropriate set of control diseases when the time series were sparse and noisy, thereby generating biased estimates of the impact of vaccination when secular trends were present. The STL+PCA approach decreased bias in the estimates for smaller populations.ConclusionsEstimates from the SC model might be biased when data are sparse. The STL+PCA model provides more accurate evaluations of vaccine impact in smaller populations.

scholarly journals ANALISIS STRATEGI PENGUATAN KETAHANAN PANGAN BERAS DI KABUPATEN OGAN KOMERING ULU

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Ema Pusvita ◽  
Sriati Sriati ◽  
Dessy Adriani
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Availability ◽  
Food Access ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Food Reserves ◽  
Access To Food ◽  
Improve Food Security

<p align="center"> </p><p><em>Analysis of strengthen strategies of food rice security in Ogan Komering Ulu Regency is a</em><em> bundle</em><em> strategy to improve food security in dimensions of availability, stability and food access. This research </em><em>was </em><em>historical research.It use</em><em>d</em><em> time series data, during 26 years period. Technique in collecting data used questionnaires. Data analysis use</em><em>d</em><em> multiple regression analysis and SWOT matrix. Data presents in tables andpicture, as well as narration to interpret the data.The results of research showes that food security conditions in OKU regency still can meet the needs of rice. Adequacy of food availability, stability and access to food in OKU regency has a surplus of rice along 26 years period. This also shows that OKU regency is able to meet the needs of food rice. The factors that affect food security are (1) the availability of food with a variable land area, production and productivity, (2) stability with variable food consumption, food availability and food access, and (3) access to food that is variable income, the price of rice, the price of corn.Strategies undertaken to improve food security are doing expansion field and farming intensification, applying a single policy basic price of grain, local government policy to apply the regulation about land use, developing of farming with institutional concept, diversifying crops, reducing consumption rice, stabilizing food prices, and improving food reserves. It can be concluded thatstrategy of strengthening food security can be improved by implementing capabilities, minimizing shortage, maximizing opportunities, and overcoming the threats. This study suggest that government should follow the concept of food securitydevelopment and implement the strategy.</em></p><p><em> </em></p><p align="center">ABSTRAK</p><p align="center"> </p><p>Analisis strategi penguatan ketahanan pangan beras di Kabupaten Ogan Komering Ulu adalah suatu strategi yang berfungsi untuk meningkatkan ketahanan pangan dengan dimensi ketersediaan, stabilitas dan akses pangan. Penelitian ini adalah penelitian bersifat <em>historical</em> (sejarah), menggunakan data runtun waktu (<em>time series</em>) yaitu selama kurun waktu 26 tahun. Teknik mengumpulan data menggunakan panduan kuisioner. Untuk analisis data menggunakan analisis regresi berganda dan matrik SWOT. Data disajikan dalam bentuk tabel dan gambar serta narasi untuk menginterpretasikan data tersebut. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa kondisi ketahanan pangan di Kabupaten OKU masih dapat memenuhi kebutuhan beras masyarakatnya. Kecukupan ketersediaan pangan, stabilitas dan akses pangan yang ada di wilayah Kabupaten OKU mengalami surplus beras selama kurun waktu 26 tahun. Hal ini juga menunjukan bahwa Kabupaten OKU mampu mencukupi kebutuhan pangan beras masyarakatnya. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ketahanan pangan yaitu (1) ketersediaan pangan dengan variable luas lahan, produksi dan produktifitas, (2) stabilitas pangan dengan variable konsumsi, ketersediaan pangan dan akses pangan, serta (3) akses pangan variable yaitu pendapatan, harga beras, harga jagung. Strategi yang dilakukan untuk meningkatkan ketahanan pangan di Kabupaten OKU yaitu melakukan areal ekstensifikasi dan intensifikasi usahatani, menerapkan kebijakan tunggal harga dasar gabah, kebijakan pemerintah daerah untuk mengeluarkan peraturan tentang alihfungsi lahan, pengembangan usahatani dengan konsep kelembagaan, melakukan diversifikasi tanaman pangan, menurunkan tingkat konsumsi beras, menjaga stabilitas harga pangan, serta penguatkan cadangan pangan. Dapat disimpulkan bahwa strategi penguatan ketahanan pangan dapat ditingkatkan dengan menerapkan kemampuan, meminimalkan kekurangan, memaksimalkan peluang yang ada serta mengatasi ancaman yang menantang. Saran penelitian ini hendaknya pemerintah menindaklanjuti konsep pengembangan ketahanan pangan serta mengimplementasikan strategi tersebut.</p>

scholarly journals Aquaculture Production and Consumption of Fish in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-26
Author(s):  
Dhanya Sai Das ◽  
R Govindasamy
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Food Protein ◽  
Fish Production ◽  
Total Fish ◽  
The Government

Aquaculture and fisheries emerged as an important source of food, protein, nutrition, livelihood and employment for the majority of the rural population. The fisheries sector has registered a sustainable and astounding growth rate over the last decade. The sector offers an attractive and promising future for employment, livelihood and food security. The study is based on the available secondary data from different aspects of fishery statistics published in Handbook on Fisheries Statistics 2020 by the Government of India and other related articles. Data for the time series analysis was taken from 2001-02 to 2017-18. It is found that the world per capita apparent consumption of fish has been increased by 10.4 kg from the 1960s (i.e., 9.9 kg) to 2016 (i.e., 20.30 kg). By analysing the time-series data, it is evident that the total fish production, including both marines and inland, has shown an astounding growth with a Compound Growth Rate of 4.58. The regression equation was Y = 5.182X – 12267, R2 value was 0.9414 where Y is the total fish production (dependent variable) and X is the total fish seed production (independent variable). There exists a positive relationship between fish seed and fish production in the country. It can be concluded that aquaculture plays a significant role in the country’s GDP rate and food security.

ANALISIS PERMINTAAN DAN PENAWARAN BERAS DI PROPINSI JAMBI

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
. Edison ◽  
Pera Nurfathiyah
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Research Result ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
On Demand ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Production Growth ◽  
Per Capita

The rice production growth that was gotten by Jambi Province with production growth rate of 0,54% can not fully contribute society need that was continuously increasing. Therefore, it can cause unbalance between supply and demand. The objective of research is to know the picture of rice supply and demand and influenced variables on rice supply and demand in Jambi. The simultan model was used to predict factors that influenced rice supply and demand. The research was conducted in Jambi Province on September to December 2009. The primary data needed in this research was time series data from 1996 – 2008. The research result showed that simultaneously rice price factor, the number population and income per capita was significant on demand. And also factor of average rice price, Bangkok rice price, import rice price, hybrid seed, acreage, season, and time trend were influencing significantly on supply. From elasticity value was fortunately all variables that was influencing rice demand and supply in Jambi Province was inelastic. Kata Kunci : rice demand and supply, rice price, elasticit

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document