Forecasting Postflight Hip Fracture Probability Using Probabilistic Modeling

A probabilistic model predicts hip fracture probability for postflight male astronauts during lateral fall scenarios from various heights. A biomechanical representation of the hip provides impact load. Correlations relate spaceflight bone mineral density (BMD) loss and postflight BMD recovery to bone strength (BS). Translations convert fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load (AL) to BS, to fracture probability. Parameter distributions capture uncertainty and Monte Carlo simulations provide probability outcomes. The fracture probability for a 1 m fall 0 days postflight is 15% greater than preflight and remains 6% greater than pre-flight at 365 days postflight. Probability quantification provides insight into how spaceflight induced BMD loss affects fracture probability. A bone loss rate reflecting improved exercise countermeasures and dietary intake further reduces the postflight fracture probability to 6% greater than preflight at 0 days postflight and 2% greater at 365 days postflight. Quantification informs assessments of countermeasure effectiveness. When preflight BMD is one standard deviation below mean astronaut preflight BMD, fracture probability at 0 days postflight is 34% greater than the preflight fracture probability calculated with mean BMD and 28% greater at 365 days postflight. Quantification aids review of astronaut BMD fitness for duty standards. Increases in postflight fracture probability are associated with an estimated 18% reduction in postflight BS. Therefore, a 0.82 deconditioning coefficient modifies force application limits for crew vehicles.

Bone loss patterns in cortical, subcortical, and trabecular compartments during simulated microgravity

Disuse studies provide a useful model for bone adaptation. A direct comparison of these studies is, however, complicated by the different settings used for bone analysis. Through pooling and reanalysis of bone data from previous disuse studies, we determined bone loss and recovery in cortical, subcortical, and trabecular compartments and evaluated whether the study design modulated skeletal adaptation. Peripheral quantitative tomographic (pQCT) images from control groups of four disuse studies with a duration of 24, 35, 56, and 90 days were reanalyzed using a robust threshold-free segmentation algorithm. The pQCT data were available from 27 young healthy men at baseline, and at specified intervals over disuse and reambulation phases. The mean maximum absolute bone loss (mean ± 95% CI) was 6.1 ± 4.5 mg/mm in cortical, 2.4 ± 1.6 mg/mm in subcortical, and 9.8 ± 9.1 mg/mm in trabecular compartments, after 90 days of bed rest. The percentage changes in all bone compartments were, however, similar. During the first few weeks after onset of reambulation, the bone loss rate was systematically greater in the cortical than in the trabecular compartment ( P < 0.002), and this was observed in all studies except for the longest study. We conclude that disuse-induced bone losses follow similar patterns irrespective of study design, and the largest mean absolute bone loss occurs in the cortical compartment, but apparently only during the first 60 days. With longer study duration, trabecular loss may become more prominent.

Bone Loss Rate May Interact with Other Risk Factors for Fractures among Elderly Women: A 15-Year Population-Based Study

Aim was to investigate fracture risk (FR) according to bone loss (BL) rate. A random sample of 1652 women aged 53.5 years was measured with dual X-ray absorptiometry in femoral neck in 1989 and 1994 and divided into tertiles of annual BL rate: high >0.84%, moderate 0.13%–0.84%, and low <0.13%. Low trauma energy fractures during following 10 years were recorded. There were no differences in FR between BL tertiles in Cox regression model. Factors predicting lower FR in Cox model were in high tertile: high T-score (HR 0.71; 95% CI 0.54–0.93,P=.012), no sister's fracture (HR 0.35; 0.19–0.64,P=.001), no mother's fracture (HR 0.52; 0.31–0.88,P=.015), in moderate tertile: high T-score (HR 0.69;0.53–0.91,P=.008) and good grip strength (HR 0.98; 0.97–0.99,P=.022). In low tertile there were no predictors for FR. BL predicted FR in women with mother's fracture in univariate and multivariate model (OR 2.6; 1.15–5.7,P=.021) but with sister's fracture this was observed only in multivariate model (OR 2.66; 1.09–6.7,P=.039). Accordingly, the risk factors for postmenopausal fractures, especially mother's fracture, may interact with BL.