Forecasting Civil Aviation Incident Rate in China Using a Combined Prediction Model

With the rapid development of air transportation, the complexity, importance, and severity of civil aviation safety have gradually become prominent. It is essential to use various data to analyze and predict the level of aviation safety. This paper used a combined prediction model based on Induced Ordered Weighted Averaging (IOWA) operator to forecast the civil aviation incident rate. We compiled and calculated civil aviation incident data and total flight hours from 2008 to 2019 in China and took the civil aviation incident rate (incident numbers per ten thousand flight hours) as the prediction object. First, this paper used the nonlinear regression model, Grey Verhulst model, and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model to forecast the civil aviation incident rate individually. Then, it used the smallest sum of squared errors as the principle to use a combined prediction model based on the IOWA operator. It can be seen from the experimental results that the prediction accuracy of the combined model is better than single models. Finally, this paper forecasted the civil aviation incident rate in 2020 and 2021. The results showed that the predicted rates are 0.524 and 0.551. Most notably the incident rate will increase significantly compared with 2019.

Induced OWA Operator for Group Decision Making Dealing with Extended Comparative Linguistic Expressions with Symbolic Translation

Nowadays, decision making problems have increased their complexity and a single decision maker cannot handle these problems, with a more diverse and comprehensive view of them being necessary, which results in group decision making (GDM) schemes. The complexity of GDM problems is often due to their inherent uncertainty that is not solved just by using a group. Consequently, different methodologies has been proposed to handle it, in which, the use of the fuzzy linguistic approach stands out. Among the multiple fuzzy linguistic modeling approaches, Extended Comparative Linguistic Expressions with Symbolic Translation (ELICIT) information has been recently introduced, which enhances classical linguistic modeling that is based on single terms by providing linguistic expressions in a continuous linguistic domain. Its application to decision making is quite promising, but it is necessary to develop enough operators to accomplish aggregation processes in the decision solving scheme. So far, just a small number of aggregation operators have been defined for ELICIT information. Hence, this paper aims at providing new aggregation operators for ELICIT information by developing novel OWA based operators, such as the Induced OWA (IOWA) operator in order to avoid the OWA operator needs of reordering its arguments, because ELICIT information does not have an inherent order due to its fuzzy representation. Our proposal not only consists of extending the definition of an IOWA operator for ELICIT information with crisp weights, but it is also proposed a type-1 IOWA operator for ELICIT information in which both weights and arguments are fuzzy as well as the use of ELICIT information constructing the order inducing variable to reorder the arguments. Additionally, the use of ELICIT information in GDM demands the ability to manage majority based decisions that are better represented in the IOWA operator by linguistic quantifiers. Hence, a majority-driven GDM process for ELICIT information is proposed, which it is the first proposal for fulfilling the majority solving process for GDM while using ELICIT information. Eventually, an illustrative example and a brief comparative analysis are presented in order to show the performance of the proposal and its feasibility.

Combined Conflict Evidence Based on Two-Tuple IOWA Operators

Due to poor natural factors and human interference, the information that was obtained by sensors tends to have high uncertainty and high conflict with others. A combination of highly conflicting evidence with Dempster’s rule often produces results that run counter to intuition. To solve the above problem, a conflict evidence combination methodology is proposed in this article, which contains the distance of evidence, classical conflict coefficient, and two-tuple IOWA operator. Both the classical conflict coefficient and Jousselme distance indicate the degree of evidence conflict, and it is clear that the two parameters are symmetrical. First, the two-tuple IOWA operator is proposed. Second, the orness is determined by aggregated data; then, the weighting vector is calculated by a maximal entropy method. Finally, the weighted average is the evidence in the system by a two-tuple IOWA operator; then, the Dempster combination rule is utilized to fuse information. Compared with other existing methods, the presented methodology has high performance when dealing with conflict evidence and has strong anti-interference ability.

Detection and Prediction of Internal Damage in the Ancient Timber Structure Based on Optimal Combined Model

It is currently known that using stress wave and drilling resistance to detect the internal damage in the ancient timber structure is not a highly precise process. To improve the detection precision of this process, a simulation test was used to detect the internal damage of poplar and elm in ancient buildings. In this empirical study, we compared the detection precision of these two detection methods. Based on the idea of variable weight, we introduced three combined forecasting models based on the IOWA operator, IOWGA operator, and IOWHA operator to predict the internal damage in the ancient timber structure. The results show that the combined forecasting model based on the IOWA operator is more effective in predicting compared to a single detection method and other combined forecasting models. To be more specific, the results show that the detection precision of the combined model is increased by 25.8% and 4.7%, respectively, compared to the precision of the stress wave and drilling resistance tests. The error indicators of the combined forecasting model based on the IOWA operator are better than those of the other combined forecasting models. In addition, the analysis results based upon cross-validation theory show the combined forecasting model based on the IOWA operator has the best applicability, which provides a new practical method for evaluating internal damage of timber components in ancient buildings.

Assessment of City Sustainability Using MCDM with Interdependent Criteria Weight

The Capital Economic Circle is an important planning project in China. Sustainability is a key factor for the long-term development of the Capital Economic Circle. In this paper, we investigated the sustainability of 13 cities in the Capital Economic Circle using three dimensions: economy, society, and environment. The induced ordered weighted averaging (IOWA) operator was used for the aggregation of criteria data. The order-inducing variable in the IOWA operator was measure by the correlation degree of a criterion and all the other criteria. Criteria with larger order-inducing values were given more weight as they provided more support for the development of other criteria. The assessment results indicate that the sustainable development of most of the cities, except for Beijing and Tianjin, is poor, with performance values below 0.5. By comparing the development using three dimensions, it was found that poor performances of economic sustainability were the main reason for this. Additionally, all of the cities showed a sound momentum of sustainable growth even though the sustainable levels of most of the cities were not high. In terms of sustainable development across the three dimensions, the cities had the highest levels of environmental sustainability. The social sustainability of the cities, except for Beijing and Tianjin, was better than their economic sustainability. However, more than half of the cities (accounting for 53.8%) showed a decline in social sustainability, especially for Zhangjiakou, which had the highest degree of decline of 4.00%. Some suggestions have been provided on the basis of the main assessment results. For example, Beijing should invest more in education as well as further easing transportation pressure. There is room for further improvement of the social and environmental sustainability of Tianjin. The other cities should focus on developing economic sustainability as well as preventing the decline of social sustainability.