Modeling of Thermal-Hydrological-Chemical (THC) Processes During Waste Rock Weathering Under Permafrost Conditions

The oxidation of sulfide minerals such as pyrite present in waste rock results in elevated sulfate, enhanced metal loadings and in many cases low pH conditions. Recently, many mines have opened in remote areas, including regions subject to permafrost conditions. In these regions, freeze-thaw cycles and the possible development of permafrost in mine waste add to the complexity of weathering processes, drainage volumes and mass loadings. To assess weathering in these waste rock piles, the reactive transport code MIN3P-HPC has been enhanced by implementing constitutive relationships related to freeze-thaw cycles that control flow patterns, solute transport, generation and transport of heat, as well as geochemical reactions and their rates. Simulations of a hypothetical pyrite-rich waste rock pile placed onto natural permafrost were conducted under reference climate conditions. Additionally, the effect of a warming climate was also studied through a sensitivity analysis. The simulation results indicate a potentially strong coupled effect of sulfide mineral weathering rates and a warming climate on the evolution and persistence of permafrost within waste rock piles and the release of acidic drainage. For relatively low sulfide mineral oxidation rates, the simulations indicate that permafrost can develop within waste rock piles, even under warming climate conditions. However, the results for low reactivity also show that mass loadings can increase by >50% in response to a slight warming of climate (3°C), relative to reference climate conditions. For the chosen reference reaction rates, permafrost develops under reference climate conditions in the simulated waste rock pile; however, permafrost cannot be maintained for a marginally warmer climate, leading to internal heating of the pile and substantially increased production of acidic drainage (>550%). For high reaction rates, the simulations suggest that internal heating takes place irrespective of climate conditions. Evaluation of thermal covers indicates that significant reductions of mass loadings can be achieved for piles with low and reference reactivity (91–99% in comparison to uncovered piles), but also suggest that thermal covers can be ineffective for piles with high sulfide content and reactivity. Together, these simulations provide insights into the complex interactions controlling waste rock weathering in cold-region climates.

Downscaling potential evapotranspiration to the urban canyon

The future increase in urban population will lead to progressing urbanization with urban sprawl and densification. Urbanized areas show distinct changes in their hydrological behaviour, water quality and climate. In the last decades, the ability of urban hydrological models to represent the dynamic hydrological behaviour of the different surface types has been improved continuously. Dissenting from the urban surface which is mostly represented in high spatial resolution, the climatic input to these models, such as precipitation and potential evapo(transpi)ration, is usually observed at one or several reference climate stations that are representing a mesoscale urban foot print area or rural conditions. From urban climate studies it is known, that the meteorological variables that are governing potential evapotranspiration (Ep) can be highly variable even on a small spatial scale. Consequently, we expect Ep at the street level to be affected by this variability as well. We observed the urban microclimate with a mobile climate station and a rotational principle at 16 different locations in two differently oriented street canyons with vegetated and non-vegetated sections, respectively, during three seasons (spring, summer, autumn) in Freiburg, in southwestern Germany. With these observations, we simulated Ep at the street level using FAO-56 Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration and compared it to reference Ep derived at a rooftop station. We found that Ep on street level is negatively influenced by changes in shortwave radiation and that it is barely sensitive to changes in the other input climate variables. Significant linear relationships between the relative differences in hourly and daily short-wave radiation input and Ep at the street level have been established. The application of these relationships allows to simulate Ep at the street level for any location in a city based on simulated (or observed) short wave time series and observations at a reference climate station. Our findings can be transferred easily to existing urban hydrologic models to improve modelling results with a more precise estimate of potential evapotranspiration on street level.

Simulated future changes of extreme nutrient loads in a mesoscale agricultural watershed in Bavaria / Simulierte zukünftige Änderungen der Extremwerte für Nährstofffrachten in einem mesoskaligen landwirtschaftlichen Einzugsgebiet in Bayern

SummaryThe hydrological model SWAT was applied to the upper Altmühl watershed to examine the simulated 10th and 90th percentiles of streamflow, nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N), and total phosphorus loads (TP), using an ensemble of reference climate (1975–2000) and future climate (2046–2070) simulations. A comparison between the two periods showed that in the future, the 90th percentiles of the NO3--N loads increase in all seasons which indicates a trend to increasing diffuse pollution in the mid-term future. Conversely, the 90th percentile TP loads diminished in winter and otherwise remained similar to the reference period. The 10th and 90th percentile changes in the future streamflow followed changes in precipitation, and did not have any apparent influence on extreme nutrient transport events.

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico “resurrection experiments” showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation.

A Remote-Sensing Method of Selecting Reference Stations for Evaluating Urbanization Effect on Surface Air Temperature Trends

In the global lands, the bias of urbanization effects still exits in the surface air temperature series of many city weather stations to a certain extent. Reliable reference climate stations need to be selected for the detection and correction of the local manmade warming bias. The underlying image data of remote sensing retrieval is adopted in this study to obtain the spatial distribution of surface brightness temperature, and the surface air temperature reference stations are determined based on the locations of the weather stations in the remote sensing surface thermal fields. Among the 672 national reference climate stations and national basic weather stations of mainland China, for instance, 113 surface air temperature reference stations are selected for applying this method. Compared with the average surface air temperature series of the reference stations obtained by a more sophisticated method developed in China, this method is proven to be robust and applicable, and can be adopted for the evaluation and adjustment study on the urbanization bias of the currently used air temperature records of surface climate stations in the global lands.