Choice of reference climate conditions matters in impact studies: Case of bias‐corrected CORDEX data set

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 2022-2040
Author(s):  
Laura Dobor ◽  
Tomáš Hlásny
2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Štaffenová ◽  
Ján Rybárik ◽  
Miroslav Jakubčík

AbstractThe aim of experimental research in the area of exterior walls and windows suitable for wooden buildings was to build special pavilion laboratories. These laboratories are ideally isolated from the surrounding environment, airtight and controlled by the constant internal climate. The principle of experimental research is measuring and recording of required physical parameters (e.g. temperature or relative humidity). This is done in layers of experimental fragment sections in the direction from exterior to interior, as well as in critical places by stable interior and real exterior climatic conditions. The outputs are evaluations of experimental structures behaviour during the specified time period, possibly during the whole year by stable interior and real exterior boundary conditions. The main aim of this experimental research is processing of long-term measurements of experimental structures and the subsequent analysis. The next part of the research consists of collecting measurements obtained with assistance of the experimental detached weather station, analysis, evaluation for later setting up of reference data set for the research locality, from the point of view of its comparison to the data sets from Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMU) and to localities with similar climate conditions. Later on, the data sets could lead to recommendations for design of wooden buildings.


2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 12765-12795 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Teutschbein ◽  
J. Seibert

Abstract. In hydrological climate-change impact studies, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are commonly used to transfer large-scale Global Climate Model (GCM) data to smaller scales and to provide more detailed regional information. However, there are often considerable biases in RCM simulations, which have led to the development of a number of bias correction approaches to provide more realistic climate simulations for impact studies. Bias correction procedures rely on the assumption that RCM biases do not change over time, because correction algorithms and their parameterizations are derived for current climate conditions and assumed to apply also for future climate conditions. This underlying assumption of bias stationarity is the main concern when using bias correction procedures. It is in principle not possible to test whether this assumption is actually fulfilled for future climate conditions. In this study, however, we demonstrate that it is possible to evaluate how well bias correction methods perform for conditions different from those used for calibration. For five Swedish catchments, several time series of RCM simulated precipitation and temperature were obtained from the ENSEMBLES data base and different commonly-used bias correction methods were applied. We then performed a differential split-sample test by dividing the data series into cold and warm respective dry and wet years. This enabled us to evaluate the performance of different bias correction procedures under systematically varying climate conditions. The differential split-sample test resulted in a large spread and a clear bias for some of the correction methods during validation years. More advanced correction methods such as distribution mapping performed relatively well even in the validation period, whereas simpler approaches resulted in the largest deviations and least reliable corrections for changed conditions. Therefore, we question the use of simple bias correction methods such as the widely used delta-change approach and linear scaling for RCM-based climate-change impact studies and recommend using higher-skill bias correction methods.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Böhnisch ◽  
Elizaveta Felsche ◽  
Ralf Ludwig

<p>Heat waves are among the most hazardous climate extremes in Europe, commonly affecting large regions for a considerable amount of time. Especially in the recent past, heat waves account for substantial economic, social and ecologic impacts and loss. Projections suggest that their number, duration and intensity increase under changing climate conditions, stressing the importance of quantifying their characteristics. Yet, apart from the analysis of single historical events, little research is dedicated to the general propagation of heat waves in space and time.  <br>Heat waves are rare in their occurrence and limited observational data provide little means for robust analyses and the understanding of dynamical spatio-temporal patterns. Therefore, we seek to increase the number of analyzable events by using a large climate model ensemble. The use of several model members of comparable climate statistics allows to robustly assessing various spatial patterns of heat waves as well as their typical temporal evolutions.  <br>Here, we explore a data-driven approach to infer cause-and-effect relationships from, in this case, regional climate model ensemble data in order to analyze the spatio-temporal propagation of spatially distributed phenomena. Our aim is to investigate specifically the transitions and inter-dependencies among heat waves in Europe. The approach includes the identification of most frequent heat wave patterns by clustering and the derivation of directed links between core regions of these heat wave classes using causal discovery in a data set of high spatial resolution. <br>We present the setup of our framework, including clustering results of heat waves and first results of our analysis.</p>


2010 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 113-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Tolosana-Delgado ◽  
M. I. Ortego ◽  
J. J. Egozcue ◽  
A. Sánchez-Arcilla

Abstract. A reparametrization of the Generalized Pareto Distribution is here proposed. It is suitable to parsimoniously check trend assumptions within a Point-Over-Threshold model of hazardous events. This is based on considerations about the scale of both the excesses of the event magnitudes and the distribution parameters. The usefulness of this approach is illustrated with a data set from two buoys, where hypotheses about the homogeneity of climate conditions and lack of trends are assessed.


2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Lindegren ◽  
David M. Checkley

Small pelagic fish typically show highly variable population dynamics due, in large part, to climate variability. Despite this sensitivity to climate, few stocks of pelagic species are managed with consideration of the environment. The Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) represents a notable exception, for which sea surface temperature (SST) from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) pier has been used, until recently, to adjust exploitation pressure under warm (favorable) and cold (unfavorable) climate conditions. Recently, the previously established temperature–recruitment relationship was reassessed using different methods, resulting in abandonment of the temperature-sensitive harvest control rule in 2012. In this study, we revisit the previous temperature–recruitment relationship using the original methodology and an updated data set from 1981 to 2010. In contrast to the recent reassessment, we find temperature explains significant variability in recruitment and recruitment success. We also show that mean annual SST averaged over the present California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations area is a better predictor of recruitment variability than SST at the SIO pier. We propose that sustainable management of the Pacific sardine should consider climate variability and that the basis for this be periodically updated and revised to inform management with the best available science.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie-Luise Kapsch ◽  
Uwe Mikolajewicz ◽  
Florian Andreas Ziemen ◽  
Christian B. Rodehacke ◽  
Clemens Schannwell

Abstract. Most studies analyzing changes in the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet are limited to the last century, due to the availability of observations and the computational limitations of regional climate modeling. Using transient simulations with a comprehensive Earth System Model (ESM) we extend previous research and study changes in the SMB and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) for deglacial climate conditions. An energy balance model (EBM) is used to downscale atmospheric processes. It determines the SMB on higher spatial resolution and allows to resolve SMB variations due to topographic gradients not resolved by the ESM. An evaluation for historical climate conditions (1980–2010) shows that derived SMBs compare well with SMBs from regional modeling. Throughout the deglaciation changes in insolation dominate the Greenland SMB: 1) The increase in insolation and associated warming early in the deglaciation result in an ELA and SMB increase. The SMB increase is caused by compensating effects of melt and accumulation, as a warmer atmosphere precipitates more. After 13 ka before present (BP) melt begins to dominate and the SMB decreases. 2) The decline in insolation after 9 ka BP leads to an increasing SMB and decreasing ELA. Superimposed on these long-term changes are episodes of significant SMB/ELA decreases, related to slowdowns of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that lead to cooling over most of the Northern Hemisphere. To study associated changes in the ice sheet geometry, the SMB data set is made available to the ice sheet modeling community.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faranak Tootoonchi ◽  
Jan Olaf Haerter ◽  
Olle Raty ◽  
Thomas Grabs ◽  
Claudia Teutschbein

<p>Climate models are primary tools to reconstruct past and predict future climates. It is common procedure to use general circulation models (GCMs) for large scale studies and regional climate models (RCMs), for impact studies at a finer spatial resolution. However, climate models face biases compared to observation. To overcome these biases, different statistical methods have been suggested in the scientific literature that employ a transformation algorithm to re-scale (or bias-correct) RCM outputs. Some of these methods (e.g. univariate methods that adjust only one RCM-simulated variable at a time) are comparatively easy to implement while others (e.g., multi-variate correction that guarantees consistency in spatiotemporal fields and different climate variables) that have been introduced lately to the field, are more complex and require advanced statistical knowledge and more computing power. Therefore, the need to further investigate the performance of the latest more complex bias-adjustment methods under different climatic conditions still exists and their added value still needs to be evaluated from different aspects.</p><p>Thus, we assessed the skill of two commonly used multivariate methods, namely copula based bias adjustment methods and non-parametric n-dimensional multivariate bias correction (MBCn). We further compared them with widely used univariate methods, i.e. the parametric distribution mapping (DS) and the non-parametric quantile delta mapping (QDM), to adjust RCM-simulated temperature and precipitation. We evaluated these methods over 55 Swedish catchments varying in size and climatic features using an ensemble of 10 different RCMs under varying climate conditions to check multiple features that represent both probabilistic and temporal behavior. To evaluate how these methods, perform in nonstationary climate conditions, we performed the assessment over two periods of 22 years each, where the period 1961-1982 is used for calibration and 1983-2004 for validation. The adequacy of each bias adjustment method in reducing the biases varies depending on several factors such as the studied watershed, the applied RCM model, utilized climate variable and the statistical feature that is subjected to adjustment. We further discuss potential issues and trade-offs of each of the applied methods and present an evaluation of each bias-corrected climate variable in terms of its (1) statistical properties, (2) temporal behavior utilizing cross correlation and autocorrelation measures, and (3) dependence structure to the other variable with help of copula-based dependence measures. Finally, we also examined how the four bias-adjustment methods influence the Clausius Clapeyron relation, which serves as an important climatic illustration of the relationship between extreme precipitation and temperature.</p>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordon Bromley ◽  
Alexandra Balter ◽  
Greg Balco ◽  
Margaret Jackson

<p>The distribution of relict moraines in the Transantarctic Mountains affords geologic constraint of past ice-marginal positions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). We describe the directly dated glacial-geologic record from Roberts Massif, an ice-free area in the central Transantarctic Mountains, to provide a comprehensive record of ice sheet change at this site since the Miocene and to capture ice sheet response to warmer-than-present climate conditions. The record is constrained by cosmogenic <sup>3</sup>He, <sup>10</sup>Be, <sup>21</sup>Ne, and <sup>26</sup>Al surface-exposure ages from > 160 dolerite and sandstone erratics on well-preserved moraines and drift units. Our data set indicates that a cold-based EAIS was present, and similar to its current configuration, for long periods over the last ~14.5 Myr, including the mid-Miocene, Late Pliocene, and early-to-mid Pleistocene, with moraine ages increasing with distance from and elevation above the modern ice margin. We also report extremely low erosion rates over the duration of our record, reflecting long-term polar desert conditions at Roberts Massif. The age-elevation distribution of moraines at Roberts Massif is consistent with a persistent EAIS extent during glacial maxima, accompanied by slow, isostatic uplift of the massif due to subglacial erosion. Although our data are not a direct measure of ice volume, the Roberts Massif glacial record indicates that the EAIS was present and of similar extent to today during periods when global temperature was believed to be warmer and/or atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations were likely higher than today. <br><br></p>


2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 257-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Yin ◽  
S. C. Dekker ◽  
B. J. J. M. van den Hurk ◽  
H. A. Dijkstra

Abstract. Multiple states of woody cover under similar climate conditions are found in both conceptual models and observations. Due to the limitation of the observed woody cover data set, it is unclear whether the observed bimodality is caused by the presence of multiple stable states or is due to dynamic growth processes of vegetation. In this study, we combine a woody cover data set with an aboveground biomass data set to investigate the simultaneous occurrences of savanna and forest states under the same precipitation forcing. To interpret the results we use a recently developed vegetation dynamics model (the Balanced Optimality Structure Vegetation Model), in which the effect of fires is included. Our results show that bimodality also exists in aboveground biomass and retrieved vegetation structure. In addition, the observed savanna distribution can be understood as derived from a stable state and a slightly drifting (transient) state, the latter having the potential to shift to the forest state. Finally, the results indicate that vegetation structure (horizontal vs. vertical leaf extent) is a crucial component for the existence of bimodality.


2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Yin ◽  
S. C. Dekker ◽  
B. J. J. M. van den Hurk ◽  
H. A. Dijkstra

Abstract. Multiple states of woody cover under similar climate conditions are found in both conceptual models and observations. Due to the limitation of the observed woody cover data set, it is unclear whether the observed bimodality is caused by the presence of multiple stable states or is due to dynamic growth processes of vegetation. In this study, we combine a woody cover data set with an above ground biomass data set to investigate the simultaneous occurrences of savanna and forest states under different precipitation forcing. To interpret the results we use a recently developed vegetation dynamics model (the Balanced Optimality Structure Vegetation Model), in which the effect of fires is included. Our results show that bimodality also exists in above ground biomass and retrieved vegetation structure. In addition, the observed savanna distribution can be understood as derived from a stable state and a slightly drifting (transient) state, the latter having the potential to shift to the forest state. Finally, the results indicate that vegetation structure (horizontal vs. vertical leaf extent) is a crucial component for the existence of bimodality.


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