Brief communication: Do 1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 °C matter for the future evolution of Alpine glaciers?

With the Paris Agreement, the urgency of limiting ongoing anthropogenic climate change has been recognised. More recent discussions have focused on the difference of limiting the increase in global average temperatures below 1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 ∘C compared to preindustrial levels. Here, we assess the impacts that such different scenarios would have on both the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps and the water resources they provide. Our results show that even half-degree differences in global temperature targets have important implications for the changes predicted until 2100, and that – for the most optimistic scenarios – glaciers might start to partially recover, owing to possibly decreasing temperatures after the end of the 21st century.

Height of fever and invasive bacterial infection

ObjectiveWe aimed to evaluate the association of height of fever with invasive bacterial infection (IBI) among febrile infants <=60 days of age.MethodsIn a secondary analysis of a multicentre case–control study of non-ill-appearing febrile infants <=60 days of age, we compared the maximum temperature (at home or in the emergency department) for infants with and without IBI. We then computed interval likelihood ratios (iLRs) for the diagnosis of IBI at each half-degree Celsius interval.ResultsThe median temperature was higher for infants with IBI (38.8°C; IQR 38.4–39.2) compared with those without IBI (38.4°C; IQR 38.2–38.9) (p<0.001). Temperatures 39°C–39.4°C and 39.5°C–39.9°C were associated with a higher likelihood of IBI (iLR 2.49 and 3.40, respectively), although 30.4% of febrile infants with IBI had maximum temperatures <38.5°C.ConclusionsAlthough IBI is more likely with higher temperatures, height of fever alone should not be used for risk stratification of febrile infants.

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THERMAL PERFORMANCES OF THREE MUD DWELLING UNITS WITH COURTYARDS IN COMPOSITE CLIMATE

Jharkhand is a state in the eastern part of India. The tropic of Cancer (23 and a half degree north line) passes through Ranchi district in Jharkhand. Mud huts with burnt clay tiled roofs in Ranchi district in Jharkhand are an integral component of the state’s vernacular architecture. They come in various shapes, with a number of them having a courtyard type of plan. In general, it has been stated that courtyard type dwelling units show better thermal performance during summer and winter. In this paper, three types of mud huts with courtyards are taken as a study and through temperature measurements in the south side rooms and “Ecotect-Autodesk” (Version 2011) software simulations, their thermal performance during the hotter and colder parts of the year are observed. Thereafter, based on the study, the thermally better performing dwelling types in summer and winter are identified among the three sub-types studied. It is found that all courtyard type dwellings do not necessarily show better thermal performance in summer and winter in composite climate. Certain recommendations with respect to increasing thermal comfort in general in courtyard type huts are made.

Alien animals in South Africa – composition, introduction history, origins and distribution patterns

Background: There is no comprehensive inventory and analysis of the composition, distribution, origin and rate of introduction of the alien fauna of South Africa. Objectives: To provide such an analysis to facilitate effective ecological management, and compile a comprehensive inventory of introduced animal species across major habitats. Methods: All available databases and references were used to compile the inventory, forming the basis of subsequent analyses. A graduated map was produced to identify concentrations of alien species.Results: Of the 571 alien animal species analysed, insects comprised the largest component (53%, 300 species), followed by molluscs (9%, 51 species), annelids (8%, 48 species), arachnids (7%, 41 species), vertebrates (7%, 41 species) and crustaceans (6%, 36 species). Vertebrate introductions (88%) were largely intentional, whereas 84% of invertebrate introductions were unintentional. Conclusions: Almost all marine and most terrestrial alien species were accidentally introduced, whereas freshwater introductions were almost entirely intentional. Some 13% had not spread significantly, 16% had spread significantly and 71% had become fully invasive. Vertebrate introductions virtually ceased after the 1950s, but rate of introduction of invertebrates remained linear. The overall rate of species accumulation was fairly low until 1880, but accelerated sharply thereafter. Most terrestrial alien species originated from Europe (28.6%) and Asia (25.0%) and the lowest proportion (6.1%) from Africa. Freshwater introductions largely originated from the Americas, with few from Africa. The most invaded areas were around Cape Town, (up to 162 introduced species/half-degree grid cell), followed by Gauteng and Durban

Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios.Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 °C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 °C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 °C scenario.