REACT-1 round 15 interim report: High and rising prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England from end of September 2021 followed by a fall in late October 2021

Background: The third wave of COVID-19 in England coincided with the rapid spread of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 from the end of May 2021. Case incidence data from the national testing programme (Pillar 2) in England may be affected by changes in testing behaviour and other biases. Community surveys may provide important contextual information to inform policy and the public health response. Methods: We estimated patterns of community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England using RT-PCR swab-positivity, demographic and other risk factor data from round 15 (interim) of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study (round 15a, carried out from 19 to 29 October 2021). We compared these findings with those from round 14 (9 to 27 September 2021). Results: During mid- to late-October 2021 (round 15a) weighted prevalence was 1.72% (1.61%, 1.84%) compared to 0.83% (0.76%, 0.89%) in September 2021 (round 14). The overall reproduction number (R) from round 14 to round 15a was 1.12 (1.11, 1.14) with increases in prevalence over this period (September to October) across age groups and regions except Yorkshire and The Humber. However, within round 15a (mid- to late-October) there was evidence of a fall in prevalence with R of 0.76 (0.65, 0.88). The highest weighted prevalence was observed among children aged 5 to 12 years at 5.85% (5.10%, 6.70%) and 13 to 17 years at 5.75% (5.02%, 6.57%). At regional level, there was an almost four-fold increase in weighted prevalence in South West from round 14 at 0.59% (0.43%,0.80%) to round 15a at 2.18% (1.84%, 2.58%), with highest smoothed prevalence at subregional level also found in South West in round 15a. Age, sex, key worker status, and presence of children in the home jointly contributed to the risk of swab-positivity. Among the 126 sequenced positive swabs obtained up until 23 October, all were Delta variant; 13 (10.3%) were identified as the AY.4.2 sub-lineage. Discussion: We observed the highest overall prevalence of swab-positivity seen in the REACT-1 study in England to date in round 15a (October 2021), with a two-fold rise in swab-positivity from round 14 (September 2021). Despite evidence of a fall in prevalence from mid- to late-October 2021, prevalence remains high, particularly in school-aged children, with evidence also of higher prevalence in households with one or more children. Thus, vaccination of children aged 12 and over remains a high priority (with possible extension to children aged 5-12) to help reduce within-household transmission and disruptions to education, as well as among adults, to lessen the risk of serious disease among those infected.

Molecular markers of risk of subsequent invasive breast cancer in women with ductal carcinoma in situ: protocol for a population-based cohort study

IntroductionDuctal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast is a non-obligate precursor of invasive breast cancer (IBC). Many DCIS patients are either undertreated or overtreated. The overarching goal of the study described here is to facilitate detection of patients with DCIS at risk of IBC development. Here, we propose to use risk factor data and formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) DCIS tissue from a large, ethnically diverse, population-based cohort of 8175 women with a first diagnosis of DCIS and followed for subsequent IBC to: identify/validate miRNA expression changes in DCIS tissue associated with risk of subsequent IBC; evaluate ipsilateral IBC risk in association with two previously identified marker sets (triple immunopositivity for p16, COX-2, Ki67; Oncotype DX Breast DCIS score); examine the association of risk factor data with IBC risk.Methods and analysisWe are conducting a series of case–control studies nested within the cohort. Cases are women with DCIS who developed subsequent IBC; controls (2/case) are matched to cases on calendar year of and age at DCIS diagnosis. We project 485 cases/970 controls in the aim focused on risk factors. We estimate obtaining FFPE tissue for 320 cases/640 controls for the aim focused on miRNAs; of these, 173 cases/346 controls will be included in the aim focused on p16, COX-2 and Ki67 immunopositivity, and of the latter, 156 case–control pairs will be included in the aim focused on the Oncotype DX Breast DCIS score®. Multivariate conditional logistic regression will be used for statistical analyses.Ethics and disseminationEthics approval was obtained from the Institutional Review Boards of Albert Einstein College of Medicine (IRB 2014-3611), Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Kaiser Permanente Hawaii, Henry Ford Health System, Mayo Clinic, Marshfield Clinic Research Institute and Hackensack Meridian Health, and from Lifespan Research Protection Office. The study results will be presented at meetings and published in peer-reviewed journals.

Ensuring of the safety of internal affairs bodies during professional psychological selection for service using printing devices

the article discloses the main results of the study, describing the dependence of the presence of risk factors on the personal characteristics of candidates for service in the internal affairs bodies in the process of conducting a special psychophysiological study using a polygraph. The main conclusions in this study were obtained using comparative, qualitative, correlation and frequency analyses, which is confirmed by the existence of numerous relationships of personal characteristics, according to which the presence or absence of risk factors can be predicted. This empirical study has made it possible to draw up a table of the distribution of specific gravity and a formula according to which an employee working with printing devices can calculate the probability of identifying a risk factor in each candidate for service in the internal affairs bodies on the basis of a psychological examination. The obtained data on the results of the methods used, describing various aspects of the external manifestations of a person, were presented by groups, in matrix form and analyzed by a number of indicators such as: the risk factor was not identified, the risk factor was identified, and in groups where the result was not determined, but there is a suspicion of the presence of a risk factor. Data were compared with intergroup measures of personality traits. Analysis of personality characteristics showed that in a sample of candidates for service, the most important of the suitability markers correlate with personal features. An employee working with printing devices at the stage of familiarization with the candidate's questionnaire, analyzing his personal and business qualities, can predict, with a high degree of probability, the identification of risk factors, even before the start of the study using a polygraph, or the manifestation of various kinds of opposition, in order to hide the identification of risk factors. The use of this formula by psychologists and polygraphologists in professional psychological selection greatly contributes to ensuring the safety of internal affairs bodies at the stage of personnel screening, which is aimed at detecting and preventing emergency incidents among the personnel of internal affairs bodies and occupies a decisive role in forming a positive image of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

602Prevalence of cancer history and association with risk factors in a healthy older population

Background The ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study randomised healthy older individuals to 100mg aspirin or placebo, with clinical outcomes and disability-free survival endpoints. Detailed baseline data provides a rare opportunity to explore cancer burden and association with known cancer risk factors in this population. Methods At enrolment (2010-2014), self-reported personal cancer history, cancer type and cancer risk factor data were sought from 19,114 participants (Australia, n = 16,703; U.S., n = 2,411). Participants were healthy and expected to survive 5 years. Results Of those reporting a prior cancer diagnosis (18% women, 22% men), women were diagnosed younger (16% vs 6% of diagnoses <50 years). Cancer prevalence increased with age. Prostate and breast cancer history were higher in U.S. participants; melanoma and colorectal cancer were higher in Australian participants. Cancer history prevalence was not associated with any common risk factors, but was associated with poor health ratings in men. Blood and breast cancer history was more common with past aspirin use. Conclusions Personal cancer history in healthy older ASPREE participants was as expected for the most common cancer types in the respective populations. The lack of alignment with known risk factors is attributable to survivor bias, driven by entry criteria, and to possible molecular differences in cancer between elderly and younger people. Key messages As the prevalence of cancer increases with age, the lack of alignment with known risk factors implies other factors play a significant role.

Patterns of Allergic Sensitization and Factors Associated With Emergence of Sensitization in the Rural Tropics Early in the Life Course: Findings of an Ecuadorian Birth Cohort

Introduction: There are limited data on emergence of allergic sensitization (or atopy) during childhood in tropical regions.Methods: We followed a birth cohort of 2,404 newborns to 8 years in tropical Ecuador and collected: risk factor data by maternal questionnaires periodically from birth; atopy was measured by skin prick test reactivity (SPT) to aeroallergens in parents, and aeroallergens and food allergens in children at 2, 3, 5, and 8 years; and stool samples for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) from children periodically to 8 years and from parents and household members at the time of recruitment of cohort children. Data on risk factors were measured either at birth or repeatedly (time-varying) from birth to 8 years. Longitudinal repeated-measures analyses were done using generalized estimating equations to estimate the age-dependent risk of positive SPT (SPT+) to any allergen or mite during early childhood.Results: SPT+ to any allergen was present in 29.0% of fathers and 24.8% of mothers, and in cohort children increased with age, initially to mite but later to cockroach, reaching 14.8% to any allergen (10.7% mite and 5.3% cockroach) at 8 years. Maternal SPT+, particularly presence of polysensitization (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.49–2.77) significantly increased the risk of SPT+ during childhood, while household overcrowding at birth decreased the risk (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72–0.98). For mite sensitization, maternal polysensitization increased (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.40–3.27) but rural residence (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.50–0.94) and birth order (3rd−4th vs. 1st−2nd: OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.52–0.98) decreased the risk. Time-varying exposures to agricultural activities (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.60–0.98) and STH parasites (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.64–0.91) during childhood decreased while anthelmintics increased the childhood risk (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.05–2.05) of mite sensitization.Conclusion: Our data show the emergence of allergic sensitization, primarily to mite and cockroach allergens, during childhood in tropical Ecuador. A role for both antenatal and post-natal factors acting as potential determinants of SPT+ emergence was observed.

Age and Sex-Specific Associations in Health Risk Factors for Chronic Disease: Evidence from the Atlantic Partnership for Tomorrow’s Health (PATH) Cohort

The objective of this study was to discern health risk factors for chronic disease by age and sex in a Canadian cohort. Participants of the Atlantic Partnership for Tomorrow’s Health (PATH) cohort with health risk factor data (physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, body mass index [BMI]) were included (n = 16,165). Multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate the relationship among health risk factors, age, and sex. Regression analysis revealed that the odds of engaging in high levels of physical activity and having a BMI ≥ 25 was lower for females than males across all age groups, whereas the odds of abdominal obesity was substantially higher for females of all ages than for males. The odds of habitually consuming alcohol was lower for females of all ages than for males, and the odds of being a former/current smoker was lower for older (57–74 years of age) females than for males. The odds of consuming five or more servings of fruit and vegetables per day was higher for females of all ages than for males. There are evident differences in health risk factors for males and for females, as well as across age groups, and public health efforts need to account for the role played by sex and age in addressing chronic disease burden in Canadian adults.

Epidemiology of Epilepsy in Nigeria

BackgroundWe determined the prevalence, incidence, and risk factors for epilepsy in Nigeria.MethodsWe conducted a door-to-door survey to identify cases of epilepsy in 3 regions. We estimated age-standardized prevalence adjusted for nonresponse and sensitivity and the 1-year retrospective incidence for active epilepsy. To assess potential risk factors, we conducted a case-control study by collecting sociodemographic and risk factor data. We estimated odds ratios using logistic regression analysis and corresponding population attributable fractions (PAFs).ResultsWe screened 42,427 persons (age ≥6 years), of whom 254 had confirmed active epilepsy. The pooled prevalence of active epilepsy per 1,000 was 9.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.6–11.1), 17.7 (14.2–20.6) in Gwandu, 4.8 (3.4–6.6) in Afikpo, and 3.3 (2.0–5.1) in Ijebu-Jesa. The pooled incidence per 100,000 was 101.3 (95% CI 57.9–167.6), 201.2 (105.0–358.9) in Gwandu, 27.6 (3.3–128.0) in Afikpo, and 23.9 (3.2–157.0) in Ijebu-Jesa. Children's significant risk factors included febrile seizures, meningitis, poor perinatal care, open defecation, measles, and family history in first-degree relatives. In adults, head injury, poor perinatal care, febrile seizures, family history in second-degree relatives, and consanguinity were significant. Gwandu had more significant risk factors. The PAF for the important factors in children was 74.0% (71.0%–76.0%) and in adults was 79.0% (75.0%–81.0%).ConclusionThis work suggests varied epidemiologic numbers, which may be explained by differences in risk factors and population structure in the different regions. These variations should differentially determine and drive prevention and health care responses.

Improvement of cardiovascular risk prediction by longitudinal risk factor and competing risk data

Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): Spanish Society of Cardiology OnBehalf REGICOR Study Background Cardiovascular risk assessment is the cornerstone of cardiovascular primary prevention. However, most of the recommended or regionally validated risk assessment tools are not updated. Purpose To analyze the effect of including longitudinal information of risk factors as well as competing risks for cardiovascular risk prediction. Methods Data from 10,152 general population individuals from North-Eastern Spain was included. Individuals were recruited in 1995-2000-2005 in three different cohorts of the REGICOR Study. Risk factor data was obtained at baseline and in 2 follow-up visits. Risk factor data included age, sex, education, lipid profile, blood pressure, glucose, smoking, body mass index, and treatment for hypercholesterolemia, hypertension and diabetes. Event data was obtained by cross linkage with healthcare and mortality databases. Cardiovascular events included myocardial infarction, angina and stroke. Cancer mortality and other mortality were included as competing risks. Four cox proportional hazards models developed to model time to coronary/cerebrovascular events with longitudinal or competing risk data. Interactions between age and risk factors were included. Discrimination was assessed with the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and Sommer’s D statistic, and compared with discrimination of Framingham-REGICOR function. Results The variable with the largest effect on coronary/cerebrovascular event incidence was diabetes treatment in the longitudinal models [Hazard ratio -HR- (95% confidence interval -CI-): 3.02 (2.00, 4.58)/2.58 (1.33, 5.00)] as well as in the competing risk models [HR (95% CI): 3.08 (2.09, 4.55)/2.77 (1.48, 5.18)]. In addition to currently used variables, medication for hypertension and diabetes, and interaction between age and diabetes medication were included in all models. Compared to the Framingham-REGICOR function, discrimination improved with the inclusion of longitudinal or competing risk data as shown in the Table. Conclusion Including longitudinal information of cardiovascular risk factors or competing risks improved discrimination of a regionally validated cardiovascular risk function. The availability of these data in healthcare databases would allow its use in primary care cardiovascular risk assessment. Discrimination analysis Models AUC (95% CI) developed models AUC (95% CI) Framingham-REGICORfunction p-value Competing risks - coronary events 0.80 (0.77-0.82) 0.74 (0.71-0.77) < 0.001 Competing risks - cerebrovascular events 0.78 (0.74-0.82) 0.68 (0.63-0.72) < 0.001 Longitudinal data - coronary events 0.79 (0.78-0.81) 0.76 (0.74-0.78) < 0.001 Longitudinal data - cerebrovascular events 0.80 (0.78-0.83) 0.71 (0.69-0.74) < 0.001

Setting a course for preventing hepatitis E in low and lower-middle-income countries: A systematic review of burden and risk factors

Background Hepatitis E virus is responsible for outbreaks of acute jaundice in Africa and Asia, many of which occur among displaced people or in crisis settings. While an efficacious vaccine for HEV has been developed, we lack key epidemiologic data needed to understand how best to use the vaccine for hepatitis E control in endemic countries. Methods We conducted a systematic review of articles published on hepatitis E in low and lower-middle-income countries (LMIC) in Africa and Asia. We searched PubMed, Scopus, and Embase databases to identify articles with data on anti-HEV IgG seroprevalence, outbreaks of HEV, or risk factors for HEV infection, disease, or death, and all relevant data were extracted. Using these data we describe the evidence around temporal and geographical distribution of HEV transmission and burden. We estimated pooled age-specific seroprevalence and assessed the consistency in risk factor estimates. Results We extracted data from 148 studies. Studies assessing anti-HEV IgG antibodies used 18 different commercial assays. Most cases of hepatitis E during outbreaks were not confirmed. Risk factor data suggested an increased likelihood of current or recent HEV infection and disease associated with fecal-oral transmission of HEV, as well as exposures to blood and animals. Conclusion Heterogeneity in diagnostic assays used and exposure and outcome assessment methods hinder public health efforts to quantify burden of disease and evaluate interventions over time and space. Prevention tools such as vaccines are available, but require a unified global strategy for hepatitis E control to justify widespread use.

Risk factors and true prevalence of bovine tuberculosis in Bangladesh

Bovine tuberculosis (bTb) is endemic in Bangladesh but the true prevalence has not yet been reported. Our objectives for this study were to determine the true prevalence and identify risk factors for bTb at the animal- and herd-level in Bangladesh. A total of 510 cows were randomly selected during January 2018 to December 2018. Caudal fold (CFT) and comparative cervical tuberculin tests (CCT) were serially interpreted. Animal- and herd-level risk factor data were collected using a pre-tested questionnaire. The hierarchical true prevalence of bTb was estimated within a Bayesian framework. The herd- and animal-level risk factors were identified using mixed effects logistic regression. The apparent prevalence of bTb was 20.6% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 17.3; 24.3] based on CFT. The animal-level true prevalence of bTb was 21.9 (13.0; 32.4). The herd-level true prevalence in different regions varied from 41.9% to 88.8%. The region-level true prevalence was 49.9 (13.8; 91.2). There is a 100% certainty that herds from Bhaluka and Mymensingh Sadar upazilas are not free from bTb. The odds of bTb were 3.9 times (1.2; 12.6) higher in herds having more than four cows than those with ≤ 4 cows. On the other hand, the risk of bTb was 3.3 times higher (1.0; 10.5) in non-grazing cows than grazing cows. Crossbred cows were 2.9 times (1.5; 5.9) more likely to be infected with bTb than indigenous cows. The risk of bTb in animals with cough was 2.3 times (1.2; 4.3) higher than those without cough. Crossbred, non-grazing cows with cough should be targeted for bTb surveillance. Herds of the Mymensingh, Sadar and Bhaluka regions should be emphasized for bTb control programs. Estimation of Bayesian hierarchical true prevalence facilitates identification of areas with higher prevalence and can be used to indicate regions that where true prevalence exceeds a pre-specified critical threshold.