Reply to Gebhard Kirchgässner

In this reply to Kirchgässner, four issues are addressed: (1) the extent of double counting in attempts to reconcile estimates of the shadow economy based on the survey method and estimates based on the MIMIC (cum currency demand) approach, (2) advantages and disadvantages of the survey method, (3) of macro methods like the MIMIC approach and (4) the potential role of plausibility checks of estimates from the MIMIC approach with the survey method.

On Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy

As long as it is employed cautiously enough, the model approach is a useful tool to estimate simultaneously the size and the development of the shadow economy in several countries. However, a second method is necessary to calibrate the model. The currency demand approach can lead to highly implausible results; the size of the shadow economy might be largely overestimated. An alternative is the survey method. For real tests of whether a variable has an impact, procedures are necessary that do not use the same variables as those used to construct the indicator. Thus, to make progress in analysing the shadow economy, the model approach has a role to play, but it has to be complemented by other methods employing different data. The currency demand approach cannot be used as long as it employs the same variables for its constructions.

Measurement of the Underground Economy in Nepal: A Currency Demand Approach

There have been rising concerns on growing magnitude of Underground Economy in most of the economies irrespective of their state of development. The problem is more apparent in developing economies where legal and institutional arrangements are relatively weaker. This study attempts to estimate empirically the size of Underground Economy in Nepal. We use an indirect method of customized version of Currency Demand Method to measure the same and find that its coverage has been increasing throughout in the last two decades with the most alarming increment in the last two fiscal years 2011and 2012. We attribute these increments particularly to the 1996-2006 armed conflict; the increasing cases of economic and financial crimes; and a large informal sector.Economic Journal of Development Issues Vol. 17 & 18 No. 1-2 (2014) Combined Issue, Page: 105-127

The Shadow Economy of Czech Republic and Tax Evasion: The Currency Demand Approach

This study investigates the shadow economy of Czech Republic and the associated losses in tax revenue. The presence of a shadow economy may not necessarily be bad for the economies in which they prevail but they could cause huge losses to government revenue and could also constitute serious violation of labour regulations. The study uses the Currency Demand Approach. It measures the size of the shadow economy in two stages: a) the econometric estimation of an aggregate money demand equation b) the calculation of the value of the shadow economy through the quantity theory of money. The key variables in the study include: the total currency held outside the banking system, the number of automatic teller machines, the deposit interest rate, GDP deflator, the average tax, velocity of money, nominal GDP and nominal money supply. The results from the study show that the shadow economy of Czech Republic on the average is about 20.9 % as at the end of 2013 and the country loses an average tax revenue of about 7.2 % of GDP yearly. The data was obtained from the World Bank country indicators and the International Financial Statistics.

Measuring the informal economy in South Africa

Measuring the size of the South African informal economy has received inadequate attention, making it difficult for policy-makers to assess the impact of policy measures to stimulate informal economic activity. This article aims to estimate the size of the informal economy by using the Currency Demand Approach. The empirical results reveal that the informal economy as a percentage of GDP decreased from 1967 to 1993, before levelling off. The growth in the informal econmy has also underperformed in comparison to formal economic growth. There appears to be a causal relationship running from the informal to the formal economy. Macro-economic policies aimed at the formal economy will not necessarily 'trickle down' to the informal, while these polcies aimed at the informal economy may have a profound effect on the formal economy.

An Empirical Estimation of the Underground Economy in Ghana

The main aim of this paper is to estimate the size of the underground economy in Ghana during the period 1983–2003. There is no agreement on the appropriate estimation approach to adopt to measure the size of the underground activities. To this end, we employ the well-applied currency demand approach in our measurement. Parameter estimates from the estimated currency demand equation are used in quantifying the ratio of “underground” to “measured” output/income for the Ghanaian economy. The estimated long-run average size of the underground economy to GDP for Ghana over the period is 40%. The underground economy is found to vary from a high of 54% in 1985 to a low of 25% in 1999. Estimates may represent lower bound estimates.

The Shadow Economy in Colombia: Size and Effects on Economic Growth

Using the currency demand approach, size and development of Colombia’s shadow economy are estimated over the period from 1980 to 2012. The results show a great extent of shadow economic activity varying over time between 27 and 56% of GDP. The most important factors driving the shadow economy are indirect taxation and unemployment. Analyzing the interaction between shadow and official economy, the shadow economy has a negative effect on the official one. Average growth of real per capita GDP is 1.86% between 1980 and 2012, without shadow economy it would have been higher around 0.12 percentage points on average.