Uniform persistence and almost periodic solutions of a nonautonomous patch occupancy model

In this paper, a nonlinear nonautonomous model in a rocky intertidal community is studied. The model is composed of two species in a rocky intertidal community and describes a patch occupancy with global dispersal of propagules and occupy each other by individual organisms. Firstly, we study the uniform persistence of the model via differential inequality techniques. Furthermore, a sharp threshold of global asymptotic stability and the existence of a unique almost periodic solution are derived. To prove the main results, we construct an appropriate Lyapunov function whose conditions are easily verified. The assumptions of the model are reasonable, and the results complement previously known ones. An example with specific values of parameters is included for demonstration of theoretical outcomes.

Stochastic Spatiotemporal Patterns of Metapopulation Occupancy in Dynamic Wetlandscapes

<p>Dynamic internal feedbacks and stochastic external shocks drive the spatial organization and heterogeneity of patchy habitats, and thus the temporal variability of patch suitability and accessibility. Such spatiotemporal shifts impact species dispersal among patches and metapopulation persistence. Here, we extended the widely recognized concepts of patch-occupancy and metapopulation capacity from static to dynamic patchy habitats, with isolated wetlands embedded in uplands as the case study. We present a new metapopulation modeling approach by linking a hydrological model for wetland variability with a dynamic stochastic patch-occupancy model. In two case study wetlandscapes, we evaluate (1) spatiotemporal dynamics of wetland hydrologic regimes, and patch suitability and connectivity driven by stochastic hydroclimatic forcing, and (2) spatiotemporal patterns of patch occupancy and metapopulation dispersal dynamics. Our modeling results reveal the importance of specific connected patches that serve as persistent hubs and form the backbone of dispersal corridors to support species dispersal in fragmented dynamic landscapes. Our analyses reveal that the interplay between stochastic hydroclimatic forcing and patchy habitat structure could drive species to extinction when specific thresholds are crossed.</p>

When environmentally persistent pathogens transform good habitat into ecological traps

Habitat quality plays an important role in the dynamics and stability of wildlife metapopulations. However, the benefits of high-quality habitat may be modulated by the presence of an environmentally persistent pathogen. In some cases, the presence of environmental pathogen reservoirs on high-quality habitat may lead to the creation of ecological traps, wherein host individuals preferentially colonize high-quality habitat, but are then exposed to increased infection risk and disease-induced mortality. We explored this possibility through the development of a stochastic patch occupancy model, where we varied the pathogen’s virulence, transmission rate and environmental persistence as well as the distribution of habitat quality in the host metapopulation. This model suggests that for pathogens with intermediate levels of spread, high-quality habitat can serve as an ecological trap, and can be detrimental to host persistence relative to low-quality habitat. This inversion of the relative roles of high- and low-quality habitat highlights the importance of considering the interaction between spatial structure and pathogen transmission when managing wildlife populations exposed to an environmentally persistent pathogen.

Species fluctuations sustained by a cyclic succession at the edge of chaos

Although mathematical models and laboratory experiments have shown that species interactions can generate chaos, field evidence of chaos in natural ecosystems is rare. We report on a pristine rocky intertidal community located in one of the world’s oldest marine reserves that has displayed a complex cyclic succession for more than 20 y. Bare rock was colonized by barnacles and crustose algae, they were overgrown by mussels, and the subsequent detachment of the mussels returned bare rock again. These processes generated irregular species fluctuations, such that the species coexisted over many generations without ever approaching a stable equilibrium state. Analysis of the species fluctuations revealed a dominant periodicity of about 2 y, a global Lyapunov exponent statistically indistinguishable from zero, and local Lyapunov exponents that alternated systematically between negative and positive values. This pattern indicates that the community moved back and forth between stabilizing and chaotic dynamics during the cyclic succession. The results are supported by a patch-occupancy model predicting similar patterns when the species interactions were exposed to seasonal variation. Our findings show that natural ecosystems can sustain continued changes in species abundances and that seasonal forcing may push these nonequilibrium dynamics to the edge of chaos.