Anatomy of strike-slip fault tsunami genesis

Tsunami generation from earthquake-induced seafloor deformations has long been recognized as a major hazard to coastal areas. Strike-slip faulting has generally been considered insufficient for triggering large tsunamis, except through the generation of submarine landslides. Herein, we demonstrate that ground motions due to strike-slip earthquakes can contribute to the generation of large tsunamis (>1 m), under rather generic conditions. To this end, we developed a computational framework that integrates models for earthquake rupture dynamics with models of tsunami generation and propagation. The three-dimensional time-dependent vertical and horizontal ground motions from spontaneous dynamic rupture models are used to drive boundary motions in the tsunami model. Our results suggest that supershear ruptures propagating along strike-slip faults, traversing narrow and shallow bays, are prime candidates for tsunami generation. We show that dynamic focusing and the large horizontal displacements, characteristic of strike-slip earthquakes on long faults, are critical drivers for the tsunami hazard. These findings point to intrinsic mechanisms for sizable tsunami generation by strike-slip faulting, which do not require complex seismic sources, landslides, or complicated bathymetry. Furthermore, our model identifies three distinct phases in the tsunamic motion, an instantaneous dynamic phase, a lagging coseismic phase, and a postseismic phase, each of which may affect coastal areas differently. We conclude that near-source tsunami hazards and risk from strike-slip faulting need to be re-evaluated.

Seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust constrained by coupling segmentation and earthquake scaling

<p>Recent studies have shown that the Himalayan region is under the threat of earthquakes of magnitude 9 or larger. These estimates are based on comparisons of the geodetically inferred moment deficit rate with the seismicity of the region. However, these studies do not account for the physics of fault slip, specifically the influence of frictional barriers on earthquake rupture dynamics, which controls the extent and therefore the magnitude of large earthquakes. Here, we propose a methodology for incorporating outcomes of physics-based earthquake cycle models into hazard estimates. The methodology takes also into account the moment deficit rate, the magnitude-frequency of the current and historical catalogs, and the moment-area earthquake scaling law.</p><p>For the Himalaya setting, we estimate an improved probabilistic estimate moment deficit rate using coupling estimates inferred using a Bayesian framework. The locking distribution of the fault suggests an along-strike segmentation of the MHT with three segments that may act as aseismic barriers. The effect of the barriers on rupture propagation is assessed using results from dynamic models of the earthquake cycle. We show that, accounting for measurement and methodological uncertainties, the MHT is prone to rupturing in M8.7 earthquakes every T>200 yr, with M>9.5 events being greatly improbable. The methodology also allows to estimate the probability of the position of earthquakes on the fault based on the effect of the seismic barriers and their magnitude. This study provides a straightforward and computationally efficient method for estimating regional seismic hazard accounting for the full physics of fault slip.</p>

Rupture characteristics of the 2019 North Peru intraslab earthquake (Mw8.0)

<p>According to GlobalCMT, the 2019/05/26 North Peru earthquake is the largest event since 1976 in the wide depth range between 70km and 550km. Its hypocentral location (at about 130km depth) inside the Nazca slab geometry, together with its normal focal mechanism, favor an origin related to slab bending. Owing to its magnitude and depth, this earthquake generated large coseismic displacements over a broad area, that were geodetically measured by InSAR and GNSS. By combining these observations with regional and teleseismic data, we invert for the rupture process of the event, and first focus on the actual focal plane. Inversion reveals that the steeper plane (dipping 55-60° to the East) is preferred. A clear northward propagation is also imaged, with rupture traveling ~200km in 60s, and with little extent in the dip direction. This narrow rupture aspect implies that the stress drop is significant, even if a simple duration-based measurement would not indicate so. These inversion results obtained at relatively low frequency (below 0.2Hz) are then thoroughly compared with back-propagation images obtained at higher frequency (at 0.5-4Hz), which also highlight the dominantly northward rupture propagation with an average rupture speed of about 3 km/s. Implication in terms of earthquake rupture dynamics and occurrence of such large intermediate depth earthquakes in slabs will finally be discussed.<br>    </p>

Curved slickenlines preserve direction of rupture propagation

Slip-parallel grooves (striations) on fault surfaces are considered a robust indicator of fault slip direction, yet their potential for recording aspects of earthquake rupture dynamics has received little attention. During the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake (South Island, New Zealand), >10 m of dextral strike-slip on the steeply dipping Kekerengu fault exhumed >200 m2 of fresh fault exposure (free faces) where it crossed bedrock canyons. Inscribed upon these surfaces, we observed individual striae up to 6 m long, all of which had formed during the earthquake. These were typically curved. Using simulations of spontaneous dynamic rupture on a vertical strike-slip fault, we reproduce the curved morphology of striae on the Kekerengu fault. Assuming strike-slip pre-stress, our models demonstrate that vertical tractions induced by slip in the so-called cohesive zone result in transient changes in slip direction. We show that slip-path convexity is sensitive to the direction of rupture propagation. To match the convexity of striae formed in 2016 requires the rupture to have propagated in a northeast direction, a prediction that matches the known rupture direction of the Kaikōura earthquake. Our study highlights the potential for fault striae to record aspects of rupture dynamics, including the rupture direction of paleo strike-slip earthquakes.