Earthquake-induced debris flows at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico

The 2017 Mw 7.1 Puebla–Morelos intraslab earthquake (depth: 57 km) severely hit Popocatépetl Volcano, located ∼ 70 km north of the epicenter. The seismic shaking triggered shallow landslides on the volcanic edifice, mobilizing slope material saturated by the 3 d antecedent rainfall. We produced a landslide map based on a semi-automatic classification of a 50 cm resolution optical image acquired 2 months after the earthquake. We identified hundreds of soil slips and three large debris flows for a total affected area of 3.8 km2. Landslide distribution appears controlled by the joint effect of slope material properties and topographic amplification. In most cases, the sliding surfaces correspond with discontinuities between pumice-fall and massive ash-fall deposits from late Holocene eruptions. The largest landslides occurred on the slopes of aligned ENE–WSW-trending ravines, on opposite sides of the volcano, roughly parallel to the regional maximum horizontal stress and to volcano-tectonic structural features. This suggests transient reactivation of local faults and extensional fractures as one of the mechanisms that weakened the volcanic edifice and promoted the largest slope failures. The material involved in the larger landslides transformed into three large debris flows due to liquefaction. These debris flows mobilized a total volume of about 106 m3 of material also including large wood, were highly viscous, and propagated up to 7.7 km from the initiation areas. We reconstructed this mass wasting cascade by means of field evidence, samples from both landslide scarps and deposits, and analysis of remotely sensed and rainfall data. Although subduction-related earthquakes are known to produce a smaller number of landslides than shallow crustal earthquakes, the processes described here show how an unusual intraslab earthquake can produce an exceptional impact on an active volcano. This scenario, not related to the magmatic activity of the volcano, should be considered in multi-hazard risk assessment at Popocatépetl and other active volcanoes located along volcanic arcs.

The Productivity of Cascadia Aftershock Sequences

ABSTRACT This study addresses questions about the productivity of Cascadia mainshock–aftershock sequences using earthquake catalogs produced by the Geological Survey of Canada and the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. Questions concern the likelihood that future moderate to large intermediate depth intraslab earthquakes in Cascadia would have as few detectable aftershocks as those documented since 1949. More broadly, for Cascadia, we consider if aftershock productivities vary spatially, if they are outliers among global subduction zones, and if they are consistent with a physical model in which aftershocks are clock-advanced versions of tectonically driven background seismicity. A practical motivation for this study is to assess the likely accuracy of aftershock forecasts based on productivities derived from global data that are now being issued routinely by the U.S. Geological Survey. For this reason, we estimated productivity following the identical procedures used in those forecasts and described in Page et al. (2016). Results indicate that in Cascadia we can say that the next intermediate depth intraslab earthquake will likely have just a few detectable aftershocks and that aftershock productivity appears to be an outlier among global subduction zones, with rates that on average are lower by more than half, except for mainshocks in the upper plate. Our results are consistent with a clock-advance model; productivities may be related to the proximity of mainshocks to a population of seismogenic fault patches and correlate with background seismicity rates. The latter and a clear correlation between productivities with mainshock depth indicate that both factors may have predictive value for aftershock forecasting.

The Productivity of Cascadia Aftershock Sequences

ABSTRACT This study addresses questions about the productivity of Cascadia mainshock–aftershock sequences using earthquake catalogs produced by the Geological Survey of Canada and the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. Questions concern the likelihood that future moderate to large intermediate depth intraslab earthquakes in Cascadia would have as few detectable aftershocks as those documented since 1949. More broadly, for Cascadia, we consider if aftershock productivities vary spatially, if they are outliers among global subduction zones, and if they are consistent with a physical model in which aftershocks are clock-advanced versions of tectonically driven background seismicity. A practical motivation for this study is to assess the likely accuracy of aftershock forecasts based on productivities derived from global data that are now being issued routinely by the U.S. Geological Survey. For this reason, we estimated productivity following the identical procedures used in those forecasts and described in Page et al. (2016). Results indicate that in Cascadia we can say that the next intermediate depth intraslab earthquake will likely have just a few detectable aftershocks and that aftershock productivity appears to be an outlier among global subduction zones, with rates that on average are lower by more than half, except for mainshocks in the upper plate. Our results are consistent with a clock-advance model; productivities may be related to the proximity of mainshocks to a population of seismogenic fault patches and correlate with background seismicity rates. The latter and a clear correlation between productivities with mainshock depth indicate that both factors may have predictive value for aftershock forecasting.

Intensity and damage statistics of the September 19, 2017 Mexico earthquake: Influence of soft story and corner asymmetry on the damage reported during the earthquake

A destructive intraslab earthquake occurred in Mexico City on September 19, 2017 (Mw 7.1), causing significant damage and hundreds of human losses not only in the epicentral area, but also in the States of Morelos, Puebla, Mexico and in Mexico City. Only in Mexico City itself, around 230 people died, and more than 40 buildings collapsed. The intensities recorded in some lakebed areas of the city, especially in zones with soil periods around 1.5 s, were relatively high, even surpassing spectral values of 1.0 g; the vertical component, due to the proximity of the earthquake, was unusually high for Mexico City. The 2017 earthquake raised questions critical to understanding the city’s seismic vulnerability and resilience, and they are partly answered in this article. Using 77 accelerometric stations, the amplification pattern of the seismic intensities is characterized as well as the correlations of buildings structural characteristics with the site effects. A comprehensive statistical analysis of the damages is shown to analyze and understand the structural behavior of damaged buildings. It is including not only the structural types and the year of construction, but also the main structural problems identified (structural pathologies), such as irregularities, both in elevation and plan, soft story, and corner effect. The building damage database was constructed with 2125 reports of buildings carried out by universities and engineering associations after the earthquake, of which 543 had severe damage. It is also included the information of all buildings with no damage in the city thanks to the cadastral information provided by the Mexico City government, and post-earthquake inspections and visual inspections using Google Street View. A full study of selected neighborhoods, which compares similar buildings with and without damage, is included, yielding relevant statistical information on which pathologies cause more damage and even collapses.

Simultaneous rupture on conjugate faults during the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska, intraslab earthquake (MW 7.1) inverted from strong-motion waveforms

An MW 7.1 ~ 50-km-deep intraslab earthquake within the Pacific/Yakutat slab underlying the North American Plate struck Anchorage, southern Alaska, on November 30, 2018. The ground-motion records very close to the source region of the Anchorage earthquake provide an important opportunity to better understand the source characteristics of intraslab earthquakes in this subduction zone. We estimated the kinematic rupture process during this earthquake using a series of strong-motion waveform (0.05–0.4 Hz) inversions. Our inversions clearly indicate that the Anchorage earthquake was a rare intraslab event with simultaneous rupture on two conjugate faults, which are recognized sometimes for shallow crustal earthquakes but rarely for deep intraslab earthquakes. Interestingly, one of the conjugate faults had low aftershock productivity. This fault extends to great depth and may reflect a deep oceanic Moho or a local low-velocity and high-VP/VS zone within the oceanic mantle. Even though the Anchorage earthquake was a rare event due to the conjugate faults, we found that its kinematic source parameters such as the slip amplitude and large slip area nearly equal the global averages derived from source scaling relationships for intraslab earthquakes. Because the source parameters comparable to the global averages were also found for another large intraslab earthquake in the subducting Pacific/Yakutat slab, these source parameters are likely an important source characteristic common to this subduction zone.

Simultaneous rupture on conjugate faults during the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska, intraslab earthquake (MW 7.1) inverted from strong-motion waveforms

An MW 7.1 ~50-km-deep intraslab earthquake within the Pacific/Yakutat slab underlying the North American Plate struck Anchorage, southern Alaska, on November 30, 2018. The ground-motion records very close to the source region of the Anchorage earthquake provide an important opportunity to better understand the source characteristics of intraslab earthquakes in this subduction zone. We estimated the kinematic rupture process during this earthquake using a series of strong-motion waveform (0.05–0.4 Hz) inversions. Our inversions clearly indicate that the Anchorage earthquake was a rare intraslab event with simultaneous rupture on two conjugate faults, which are recognized sometimes for shallow crustal earthquakes but rarely for deep intraslab earthquakes. Interestingly, one of the conjugate faults had low aftershock productivity. This fault extends to great depth and may reflect a deep oceanic Moho or a local low-velocity and high-VP/VS zone within the oceanic mantle. Even though the Anchorage earthquake was a rare event due to the conjugate faults, we found that its kinematic source parameters such as the slip amplitude and large-slip area nearly equal the global averages derived from source scaling relationships for intraslab earthquakes. Because the source parameters comparable to the global averages were also found for another large intraslab earthquake in the subducting Pacific/Yakutat slab, these source parameters are likely an important source characteristic common to this subduction zone.

Simultaneous rupture on conjugate faults during the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska, intraslab earthquake (MW 7.1) inverted from strong-motion waveforms

An MW 7.1 ~50-km-deep intraslab earthquake within the Pacific/Yakutat slab underlying the North American Plate struck Anchorage, southern Alaska, on November 30, 2018. The ground-motion records very close to the source region of the Anchorage earthquake provide an important opportunity to better understand the source characteristics of intraslab earthquakes in this subduction zone. We estimated the kinematic rupture process during this earthquake using a series of strong-motion waveform (0.05–0.4 Hz) inversions. Our inversions clearly indicate that the Anchorage earthquake was a rare intraslab event with simultaneous rupture on two conjugate faults, which are recognized sometimes for shallow crustal earthquakes but rarely for deep intraslab earthquakes. Interestingly, one of the conjugate faults had low aftershock productivity. This fault extends to great depth and may reflect a deep oceanic Moho or a local low-velocity and high-VP/VS zone within the oceanic mantle. Even though the Anchorage earthquake was a rare event due to the conjugate faults, we found that its kinematic source parameters such as the slip amplitude and large-slip area nearly equal the global averages derived from source scaling relationships for intraslab earthquakes. Because the source parameters comparable to the global averages were also found for another large intraslab earthquake in the subducting Pacific/Yakutat slab, these source parameters are likely an important source characteristic common to this subduction zone.

Subsoil Characteristics of Mexico City, acceleration and hysteretic energy spectra for the Mexico Earthquake of September 19, 2017

The September 19, 2017 intraslab earthquake (Mw7.1), whose epicenter was located near the limits between the states of Puebla and Morelos at approximately 120km from Mexico City, caused severe damage in these regions. In Mexico City more than 40 buildings collapsed, and hundreds had moderate to severe damage; dozens of them are to be demolished. This article analyzes the spectral ratios of accelerometric stations in the lake-bed of Mexico City with respect to the average Fourier spectra at hill zone sites in order to study and compare over time the changes in the behavior of local effects and their relationship with the damage presented during this earthquake; these ratios exhibit also the settlement problem in some places in the city due to over exploiting the aquifer for water supply purposes. Finally, pseudoacceleration and hysteretic energy maps for Mexico City with a discussion with a possible correlation with reported damages are presented.