Is There an Arms Race Between Pakistan and India? An Application of GMM

This study employs the Richardson model to investigate the presence of an arms race between Pakistan and India during the period 1972–2010. Using the generalized method of moments approach, we find that the grievance term for the Pakistan model is positive while that for India is negative. Both countries’ defense spending in the previous period is negatively related to the change in their own defense spending due to the economic or administrative incidence of an arms race. Moreover, the defense or reaction coefficients in the specified model determine the presence of an arms race between the two countries. The signs of these coefficients are positive in accord with the classical Richardson model, suggesting that an arms race does indeed exist between Pakistan and India.

Official psychiatric morbidity and the incidence of schizophrenia 1881–1994

Background. We assess claims that the documented rise in psychiatric morbidity during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries was associated with an increasing incidence of schizophrenia.Method. Cross-sectional epidemiological comparison of the incidence of schizophrenia in one urban, industrialized community at three points over more than 100 years using new data from 1881–1902 and two pre-existing datasets, 1978–1980 and 1992–1994. For 1881–1902, 34 cases of schizophrenia were obtained through retrospective diagnosis, using Research Diagnostic Criteria, of a random 14·5% sample of first admissions to Nottingham Asylum (n=330). Inter-rater reliability and leakage analyses were performed. The administrative incidence for all three studies was directly standardized against 1991 census data. Local statistics on total psychiatric morbidity in Nottingham were taken from the asylum superintendent's register and recent data from the Office of National Statistics.Results. Official local and national rates of total psychiatric morbidity increased exponentially. There was no significant change in the incidence of schizophrenia over the 114-year period 1881–1994.Conclusions. The rise in both local and national official statistics of psychiatric morbidity 1881–1994 was not associated with a significant increase in the incidence of schizophrenia. Stability in the epidemiology of schizophrenia at a geographical level is found despite important demographic changes.

Changes in the Administrative Incidence of Schizophrenia

First-admission rates to psychiatric hospitals, and data from certain psychiatric case registers suggest that there may have been a substantial decline in the administrative incidence of schizophrenia in recent years. However, data from the Nottingham case register show that rates for first-onset schizophrenia remained stable between 1975 and 1987. It is suggested that variations in trends between different parts of the UK may be partly explained by differences in the proportion of migrants and their children in the population at risk.

The Incidence of Schizophrenia in Nottingham

Attempts were made to identify, and include in a two-year follow-up study, every patient living in the catchment area of the Mapperley group of psychiatric hospitals in Nottingham (population 390 000) who made their first-ever contact with the psychiatric services for a potentially schizophrenic illness during a two-year period (1 August 1978 to 31 July 1980). Screening was based upon symptoms rather than diagnosis, covering both in-patient and out-patient services; a consensus diagnosis using ICD-9 was made by the project team. The Nottingham Psychiatric Case Register was used in a retrospective Leakage Study which added nine cases to the 99 identified by the screening procedures. Incidence rates are given for both broad and narrow concepts of schizophrenia, and for DSM-III diagnosis. The Nottingham incidence rates are similar to those reported from other UK centres, and are near the middle of the range found in the other collaborating centres in the WHO study on Determinants of Outcome of Severe Mental Disorders. At entry to the study, 27 patients were out-patients, and 11 were never admitted to hospital at any time in the two-year follow-up period. Reasons for believing that the Nottingham administrative incidence may be close to the incidence in the community are discussed.