Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Digitaria insularis: Risk Analysis of Areas with Potential for Selection of Glyphosate-Resistant Biotypes in Eucalyptus Crops in Brazil

The objective of this study was to model the spatio-temporal distribution of Digitaria insularis (D. insularis) and analyze the risk of selection of glyphosate-resistant biotypes in eucalyptus cultivation in Brazil. Global data on the distribution of the specie were collected and associated with their ideal growth characteristics. The models were generated using Climex software, providing a predictive modeling technique. Biological data, species distribution, and climatic parameters were used to predict and map potential areas for the species of interest through the combination of growth and stress indices, giving rise to the Ecoclimatic Index (EI). The spatial distribution of D. insularis is predominantly in South and Central America and southern North America. The model had a good fit with the collected data and predicted higher EI values for tropical and subtropical regions, as was the case in Brazil. Species growth can occur throughout the year, with lower rates in winter, mainly in the country’s southern regions. Brazil has high climatic suitability for the occurrence of Digitaria insularis. Due to the climate suitability evidenced by the models and the expressive use of the same active ingredient, there is a risk of selecting glyphosate-resistant Digitaria insularis biotypes in eucalyptus cultivation areas.

Potential displacement of the native Tenuisvalvae notata by the invasive Cryptolaemus montrouzieri in South America suggested by differences in climate suitability

Tenuisvalvae notata (Mulsant) (Coccinellidae) is a predatory ladybird beetle native to South America. It specializes in mealybugs prey (Pseudococcidae), but relatively little is known about its ecology. In contrast, the ladybird beetle Cryptolaemus montrouzieri Mulsant (Coccinellidae) is indigenous to Australia and has been introduced to many countries worldwide including Brazil for biological control of mealybugs. The potential impacts of these introductions to native coccinellids have rarely been considered. The software CLIMEX estimated the climate suitability for both species as reflected in the Ecoclimatic Index (EI). Much of South America, Africa, and Australia can be considered climatically suitable for both species, but in most cases, the climate is considerably more favorable for C. montrouzieri than T. notata, especially in South America. The CLIMEX model also suggests seasonal differences in growth conditions (e.g. rainfall and temperature) that could affect the phenology of both species. These models suggest that few locations in South America would be expected to provide T. notata climatic refugia from C. montrouzieri. Although other ecological factors will also be important, such as prey availability, this analysis suggests a strong potential for displacement of a native coccinellid throughout most of its range as a consequence of the invasion by an alien competitor.

Variation in the potential distribution of Agrotis ipsilon (Hufnagel) globally and in Pakistan under current and future climatic conditions

Agrotis ipsilon (Hufnagel) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is a polyphagous moth species that mainly damages various crops and ornamental plants. This widely distributed pest is particularly a nuisance in Pakistan where it damages many crops, e.g., wheat and vegetables. To assess the risk of damage by this moth, we used the CLIMEX model to predict the distribution of A. ipsilon under current and future climatic conditions. Using the literature data, we collected information on the biology and ecology of A. ipsilon relevant for modelling the distribution of this species in Pakistan and worldwide under current and future climatic conditions. Our results revealed that under future climatic scenarios, the highly favourable habitat area of A. ipsilon (ecoclimatic index EI > 30) would decrease globally from 19% at present to 14% in the future, and the moderately favourable habitat area (0 < EI ≤ 15) would increase from 21 to 29%. We found that the northern areas of Pakistan will become highly suitable for the establishment of A. ipsilon. Under the current climatic conditions, the optimal habitats of A. ipsilon (EI > 30) comprised 10% and moderately favourable habitats (EI < 17) accounted for 25% of the total land area in Pakistan. Under future climatic scenarios, the optimal habitat area of the moth in Pakistan could decrease to 5% and the moderately favourable habitat area could cover 63% of the entire land area. The results can be applied in the protection of various crops and ornamental plants against A. ipsilon in Pakistan as well as worldwide.

Prediction of Spatiotemporal Invasive Risk by the Red Imported Fire Ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in South Korea

In this study, we analyzed the potential distribution of red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in response to climate change in South Korea using CLIMEX, a species distribution model. We further attempted to evaluate the risk of the distribution/invasion and subsequent dispersion by considering climatic suitability, and functional characteristics of cities and covered cultivated areas. The climatic suitability has extended from the southern and coastal regions to inland regions due to climate change. The number of areas with EI (Ecoclimatic Index) values of more than 20 was 9 (12%) in the current climate; the value was assumed to increase to 23% (2040), 24% (2060), 42% (2080), and 62% (2100) from the South Korea coast to inland. We predicted that May to October would be the most active period in seven domestic high-habitation areas. We also analyzed the invasive risk of the red imported fire ant into covered domestic cultivation areas. Considering climatic suitability, we determined that Jeju, Pohang, Busan, Ulsan, Mokpo, and Gosan would be the most affected areas. This study can provide baseline data for the management of invasive species nationally and for regional control through predictions of the probability of settlement and direction of spread.

Bioclimatic assessment of abiotic factors affecting relative abundance and distribution of wheat stem sawfly (Hymenoptera: Cephidae) in western Canada

Wheat stem sawfly, Cephus cinctus Norton (Hymenoptera: Cephidae), indigenous to North America, quickly adapted from host native grasses to wheat crops (Triticum Linnaeus (Poaceae)) with expansion of agriculture on the Great Plains of North America. Bioclimatic simulation tools, such as Climex, predict the potential geographic distribution and establishment of insects in ecosystems, based on climate. The ecoclimatic index, a measure of ecological suitability, integrates potential population growth with stresses to produce estimates of relative abundance. This simulation software was used to develop a bioclimate model for C. cinctus in western Canada. Results fostered a better understanding of how C. cinctus responded to selected climate variables. Two general circulation models were then applied to assess the response of C. cinctus populations to future climate. Relative to current climate, predicted changes in C. cinctus distribution and relative abundance were greatest for 2030, with a small further increase for 2070. Across the Prairies and Boreal Plains Ecozones, changes in ecoclimatic index were greater than in geographic distribution. Both general circulation models indicated most of this area would be categorised as very favourable. This suggests that the potential for pest populations could expand into areas that do not currently experience economic losses associated with C. cinctus.

Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia

We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for <em>Anopheles</em> mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

Modelando a Ceratitis Capitata (Diptera: Thepritidae) para Ecuador.

Se determinó la distribución potencial de C. capitata bajo condiciones del clima actual y un escenario de cambio climático (A1B-2030) para el Ecuador, empleando el modelo CLIMEX versión 3. El modelo usó parámetros fisiológicos de C. capitata y datos meteorológicos globales para construir un Índice Ecoclimático (IE), el cual describió zonas muy favorables (IE>30), zonas menos favorables (IE<30) y zonas nulas (IE=0) para la distribución de C. capitata durante todo el año. Se estimó que el porcentaje de áreas muy favorables (IE>30) de C. capitata es 47.73% en condiciones actuales de clima y 33.3% en el escenario A1B-2030. Adicionalmente, se estimó que el porcentaje de áreas menos favorables (IE<30) es 47.61% en condiciones actuales de clima y 62.17% en el escenario A1B-2030. Las áreas de probabilidad nula para establecimiento de C. capitata es 4.65% para condiciones actuales de clima y 4.80% para el escenario A1B-2030.AbstractThis study determined the potential distribution of C. capitata under current climate conditions and a climate change scenario (A1B-2030) for the Ecuador using the CLIMEX model version 3. The model used physiological parameters of C. capitata and global meteorological data, to build an Ecoclimatic Index (EI), which described the very favorable areas (EI > 30), less favorable areas (EI < 30) and less favorable areas (EI = 0) for the distribution of C. capitata throughout the year. It was estimated that the percentage of very favorable areas (EI > 30) of C. capitata is 47.73% in current climate conditions and 33.3% in the scenario (A1B-2030). In addition, it was estimated that the percentage of less favorable areas (EI < 30) is 47.61% in current climate conditions and 62.17% in the scenario (A1B-2030). The areas with zero probability for establishment of C. capitata is 4.65% for current climate conditions and 4.80% for the scenario (A1B-2030).

The Influence of Abiotic Factors on an Invasive Pest of Pulse Crops,Sitona lineatus(L.) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), in North America

Pea leaf weevil,Sitona lineatus(L.), native to Europe and North Africa, has been introduced into many other countries around the world, including the USA and Canada. Adults are oligophagous pests on leguminaceous plants.Sitona lineatuswas first recorded in Canada in 1997, near Lethbridge, Alberta. Since then, it has spread north in Alberta and west into Saskatchewan in 2007. Bioclimatic simulation models were used to predict the distribution and extent of establishment ofS. lineatusin Canada based on its current geographic range, phenology, relative abundance, and empirical data. The study identified areas in Canada that are at risk for future establishment ofS. lineatusand developed a better understanding of climate effects. Climate change projections (General Circulation Models) were then imposed on the bioclimatic model ofS. lineatus. Bioclimatic model output varied for each of the three General Circulation Models. In terms of suitability for pest establishment (Ecoclimatic Index), the NCAR273 CCSM climate data resulted in the most significant shift northward.