scholarly journals Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan M. Khormi ◽  
Lalit Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Global Warming Impact ◽  
Knowledge Domains ◽  
Southern Thailand ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Ecoclimatic Index ◽  
Using Data

We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for <em>Anopheles</em> mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

scholarly journals Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhili Wang ◽  
Lei Lin ◽  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Huizheng Che ◽  
Xiaoye Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends over Asia during 2006–2014, last decade of CMIP6 historical simulation, due to an opposite trend over eastern China compared with observations. The incorrect AOD trend over China is attributed to problematic AA emissions adopted by CMIP6. There are obvious differences in simulated regional aerosol radiative forcing and temperature responses over Asia when using two different emissions inventories (one adopted by CMIP6; the other from Peking university, a more trustworthy inventory) to driving a global aerosol-climate model separately. We further show that some widely adopted CMIP6 pathways (after 2015) also significantly underestimate the more recent decline in AA emissions over China. These flaws may bring about errors to the CMIP6-based regional climate attribution over Asia for the last two decades and projection for the next few decades, previously anticipated to inform a wide range of impact analysis.

scholarly journals Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals Future Thermal Assessment for the Phenological Development of Potato [Solanum tuberosum (L.)] in Cuba

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Alexis Augusto Hernández-Mansilla ◽  
Francisco Estrada-Porrúa ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Graciela Lucía Binimelis de Raga
Keyword(s):  
Solanum Tuberosum ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Solanum Tuberosum L ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Thermal Index ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Biological Development

Current changes in climate conditions due to global warming affect the phenological behavior of economically important cultivable plant species, with consequences for the food security of many countries, particularly in small vulnerable islands. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the thermal viability of Solanum tuberosum (L.) through the behavior of the Thermal Index of Biological Development (ITDB) of two cultivation areas in Cuba under different climate change scenarios. For the analysis, we elaborated bioclimatic scenarios by calculating the ITDB through a grounded and parameterized stochastic function based on the thermal values established for the phenological development of the species. We used the mean temperature values from the period 1980 to 2010 (historical reference period) of the Meteorological Stations: 78320 “Güira de Melena” and 78346 “Venezuela”, located at the western and central of Cuba respectively. We also used modeled data from RCP 2.6 scenarios; 4.5 and 8.5 from the PRECIS-CARIBE Regional Climate Model, which used global outputs from the ECHAM5 MCG for the period 2010 to 2100. As result, the scenarios showed that the annual average ITDB ranges from 0.7 to 0.8, which indicates that until 2010 there were temporary spaces with favorable thermal conditions for the species, but not for the period from 2010 to 2100 in RCP 4.5 and 8.5. In these scenarios, there was a progressive decrease in the indicator that warned of a marked loss of Viability of S. tuberosum, reduction of the time-space to cultivate this species (particularly the month of April is the most inappropriate for the ripening of the tuber). These results showed that Cuba requires the establishment of an adaptation program with adjustments in the sowing and production calendar, the use of short-cycle varieties of less than 120 days, the management of genotypes adaptable to high temperatures, and the application of “Agriculture Climate Smart”, to reduce risks in food safety.

scholarly journals Transferability Intercomparison: An Opportunity for New Insight on the Global Water Cycle and Energy Budget

2007 ◽  
Vol 88 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. S. Takle ◽  
J. Roads ◽  
B. Rockel ◽  
W. J. Gutowski ◽  
R. W. Arritt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Global Water Cycle ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Global Water

A new approach, called transferability intercomparisons, is described for advancing both understanding and modeling of the global water cycle and energy budget. Under this approach, individual regional climate models perform simulations with all modeling parameters and parameterizations held constant over a specific period on several prescribed domains representing different climatic regions. The transferability framework goes beyond previous regional climate model intercomparisons to provide a global method for testing and improving model parameterizations by constraining the simulations within analyzed boundaries for several domains. Transferability intercomparisons expose the limits of our current regional modeling capacity by examining model accuracy on a wide range of climate conditions and realizations. Intercomparison of these individual model experiments provides a means for evaluating strengths and weaknesses of models outside their “home domains” (domain of development and testing). Reference sites that are conducting coordinated measurements under the continental-scale experiments under the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Hydrometeorology Panel provide data for evaluation of model abilities to simulate specific features of the water and energy cycles. A systematic intercomparison across models and domains more clearly exposes collective biases in the modeling process. By isolating particular regions and processes, regional model transferability intercomparisons can more effectively explore the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of predictability. A general improvement of model ability to simulate diverse climates will provide more confidence that models used for future climate scenarios might be able to simulate conditions on a particular domain that are beyond the range of previously observed climates.

scholarly journals Fingerprints of changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to large reorganizations in ocean circulation

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 1811-1852 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bozbiyik ◽  
M. Steinacher ◽  
F. Joos ◽  
T. F. Stocker
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
The North ◽  
Northern Latitudes

Abstract. CO2 and carbon cycle changes in the land, ocean and atmosphere are investigated using the comprehensive carbon cycle-climate model NCAR CSM1.4-carbon. Ensemble simulations are forced with freshwater perturbations applied at the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean deep water formation sites under pre-industrial climate conditions. As a result, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation reduces in each experiment to varying degrees. The physical climate fields show changes that are well documented in the literature but there is a clear distinction between northern and southern perturbations. Changes in the physical variables affect, in return, the land and ocean biogeochemical cycles and cause a reduction, or an increase, in the atmospheric CO2 by up to 20 ppmv, depending on the location of the perturbation. In the case of a North Atlantic perturbation, the land biosphere reacts with a strong reduction in carbon stocks in some tropical locations and in high northern latitudes. In contrast, land carbon stocks tend to increase in response to a southern perturbation. The ocean is generally a sink of carbon although large re-organizations occur throughout various basins. The response of the land biosphere is strongest in the tropical regions due to a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The carbon fingerprints of this shift, either to the south or to the north depending on where the freshwater is applied, can be found most clearly in South America. For this reason, a compilation of various paleoclimate proxy records of Younger Dryas precipitation changes are compared with our model results.

scholarly journals The substructure of extremely hot summers in the Northern Hemisphere

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Röthlisberger ◽  
Michael Sprenger ◽  
Emmanouil Flaounas ◽  
Urs Beyerle ◽  
Heini Wernli
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Statistical Characterization ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Rossby Wave Breaking ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Grid Points

Abstract. In the last decades, extremely hot summers (hereafter extreme summers) have challenged societies worldwide through their adverse ecological, economic and public health effects. In this study, extreme summers are identified at all grid points in the Northern Hemisphere in the upper tail of the July–August (JJA) seasonal mean 2-meter temperature (T2m) distribution, separately in ERA-Interim reanalyses and in 700 simulated years with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble for present-day climate conditions. A novel approach is introduced to characterize the substructure of extreme summers, i.e., to elucidate whether an extreme summer is mainly the result of the warmest days being anomalously hot, or of the coldest days being anomalously mild, or of a general shift towards warmer temperatures on all days of the season. Such a statistical characterization can be obtained from considering so-called rank day anomalies for each extreme summer, that is, by sorting the 92 daily mean T2m values of an extreme summer and by calculating, for every rank, the deviation from the climatological mean rank value of T2m. Applying this method in the entire Northern Hemisphere reveals spatially strongly varying extreme summer substructures, which agree remarkably well in the reanalysis and climate model data sets. For example, in eastern India the hottest 30 days of an extreme summer contribute more than 70 % to the total extreme summer T2m anomaly, while the colder days are close to climatology. In the high Arctic, however, extreme summers occur when the coldest 30 days are substantially warmer than climatology. Furthermore, in roughly half of the Northern Hemisphere land area, the coldest third of summer days contribute more to extreme summers than the hottest third, which highlights that milder than normal coldest summer days are a key ingredient of many extreme summers. In certain regions, e.g., over western Europe and western Russia, the substructure of different extreme summers shows large variability and no common characteristic substructure emerges. Furthermore, we show that the typical extreme summer substructure in a certain region is directly related to the region’s overall T2m rank day variability pattern. This indicates that in regions where the warmest summer days vary particularly strongly from one year to the other, these warmest days are also particularly anomalous in extreme summers (and analogously for regions where variability is largest for the coldest days). Finally, for three selected regions, thermodynamic and dynamical causes of extreme summer substructures are briefly discussed, indicating that, for instance, the onset of monsoons, physical boundaries like the sea ice edge, or the frequency of occurrence of Rossby wave breaking, strongly determine the substructure of extreme summers in certain regions.

scholarly journals The exponential eigenmodes of the carbon-climate system, and their implications for ratios of responses to forcings

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. R. Raupach
Keyword(s):  
Linear Systems ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate System ◽  
First Order ◽  
The Past ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Co2 Sink

Abstract. Several basic ratios of responses to forcings in the carbon-climate system are observed to be relatively steady. Examples include the CO2 airborne fraction (the fraction of the total anthropogenic CO2 emission flux that accumulates in the atmosphere) and the ratio T/QE of warming (T) to cumulative total CO2 emissions (QE). This paper explores the reason for such near-constancy in the past, and its likely limitations in future. The contemporary carbon-climate system is often approximated as a set of first-order linear systems, for example in response-function descriptions. All such linear systems have exponential eigenfunctions in time (an eigenfunction being one that, if applied to the system as a forcing, produces a response of the same shape). This implies that, if the carbon-climate system is idealised as a linear system (Lin) forced by exponentially growing CO2 emissions (Exp), then all ratios of responses to forcings are constant. Important cases are the CO2 airborne fraction (AF), the cumulative airborne fraction (CAF), other CO2 partition fractions and cumulative partition fractions into land and ocean stores, the CO2 sink uptake rate (kS, the combined land and ocean CO2 sink flux per unit excess atmospheric CO2), and the ratio T/QE. Further, the AF and the CAF are equal. Since the Lin and Exp idealisations apply approximately to the carbon-climate system over the past two centuries, the theory explains the observed near-constancy of the AF, CAF and T/QE in this period. A nonlinear carbon-climate model is used to explore how future breakdown of both the Lin and Exp idealisations will cause the AF, CAF and kS to depart significantly from constancy, in ways that depend on CO2 emissions scenarios. However, T/QE remains approximately constant in typical scenarios, because of compensating interactions between CO2 emissions trajectories, carbon-climate nonlinearities (in land–air and ocean–air carbon exchanges and CO2 radiative forcing), and emissions trajectories for non-CO2 gases. This theory establishes a basis for the widely assumed proportionality between T and QE, and identifies the limits of this relationship.

scholarly journals Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 6121-6139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez ◽  
Douglas E. Kinnison ◽  
Alexandru Rap ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Oliver Wild ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Year 2000

Abstract. Over the 21st century changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone are likely to have important consequences for the Earth's radiative balance. In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing from future ozone changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), and including fully coupled radiation and chemistry schemes. Using year 2100 conditions from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we quantify the individual contributions to ozone radiative forcing of (1) climate change, (2) reduced concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), and (3) methane increases. We calculate future ozone radiative forcings and their standard error (SE; associated with inter-annual variability of ozone) relative to year 2000 of (1) 33 ± 104 m Wm−2, (2) 163 ± 109 m Wm−2, and (3) 238 ± 113 m Wm−2 due to climate change, ODSs, and methane, respectively. Our best estimate of net ozone forcing in this set of simulations is 430 ± 130 m Wm−2 relative to year 2000 and 760 ± 230 m Wm−2 relative to year 1750, with the 95 % confidence interval given by ±30 %. We find that the overall long-term tropospheric ozone forcing from methane chemistry–climate feedbacks related to OH and methane lifetime is relatively small (46 m Wm−2). Ozone radiative forcing associated with climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery are robust with regard to background climate conditions, even though the ozone response is sensitive to both changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Changes in stratospheric-produced ozone account for ∼ 50 % of the overall radiative forcing for the 2000–2100 period in this set of simulations, highlighting the key role of the stratosphere in determining future ozone radiative forcing.

scholarly journals Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 1429-1445 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Trail ◽  
A. P. Tsimpidi ◽  
P. Liu ◽  
K. Tsigaridis ◽  
Y. Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Southeastern Us ◽  
The Us ◽  
Ozone Levels

Abstract. Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM) to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

Changes in Water Vapor Transport and the Production of Precipitation in the Eastern Fertile Crescent as a Result of Global Warming

2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1390-1401 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. P. Evans
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
State University ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Fertile Crescent ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

Abstract This study investigates changes in the types of storm events occurring in the Fertile Crescent as a result of global warming. Regional climate model [fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5)–Noah] simulations are run for the first and last five years of the twenty-first century following the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 experiment. Then the precipitation events are classified according to the water vapor fluxes that created them. At present most of the region’s precipitation is from westerly water vapor fluxes. Results indicate that the region will increasingly get its precipitation from large events that are dominated by southerly water vapor fluxes. The increase in these events will occur in the transition seasons, especially autumn.

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