Optimal Portfolio Selection Methodology for a Demand Response Aggregator

This paper presents a methodology for determining the optimal portfolio allocation for a demand response aggregator. The formulation is based on Day-Ahead electricity prices, in which the aggregator coordinates a set of residential consumers that are recruited through contracts. Four types of contracts are analyzed, considering both direct and indirect demand response programs. The objective is to compare different scenarios for contract portfolios in order to establish the benefits of each market agent. An optimization problem is formulated to capture the interactions between the aggregator and end consumers. The model is formulated as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints: At the upper level, the aggregator maximizes its benefits, whereas the lower level represents the consumers’ contracts. By applying the developed methodology, the characterization of the consumers’ behavior is established in order to forecast their responses to the generation of punctual incentives, both for usual scenarios and peak events, as well as to evaluate the impact that direct and indirect control contracts have on the performance of the aggregator as the energy price varies.

Quantile-based optimal portfolio selection

In this paper the concept of quantile-based optimal portfolio selection is introduced and a specific portfolio connected to it, the conditional value-of-return (CVoR) portfolio, is proposed. The CVoR is defined as the mean excess return or the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of the return distribution. The portfolio selection consists solely of quantile-based risk and return measures. Financial institutions that work in the context of Basel 4 use CVaR as a risk measure. In this regulatory framework sufficient and necessary conditions for optimality of the CVoR portfolio are provided under a general distributional assumption. Moreover, it is shown that the CVoR portfolio is mean-variance efficient when the returns are assumed to follow an elliptically contoured distribution. Under this assumption the closed-form expression for the weights and characteristics of the CVoR portfolio are obtained. Finally, the introduced methods are illustrated in an empirical study based on monthly data of returns on stocks included in the S&P index. It is shown that the new portfolio selection strategy outperforms several alternatives in terms of the final investor wealth.

Multivariate Tail Moments for Log-Elliptical Dependence Structures as Measures of Risks

The class of log-elliptical distributions is well used and studied in risk measurement and actuarial science. The reason is that risks are often skewed and positive when they describe pure risks, i.e., risks in which there is no possibility of profit. In practice, risk managers confront a system of mutually dependent risks, not only one risk. Thus, it is important to measure risks while capturing their dependence structure. In this short paper, we compute the multivariate risk measures, multivariate tail conditional expectation, and multivariate tail covariance measure for the family of log-elliptical distributions, which captures the dependence structure of the risks while focusing on the tail of their distributions, i.e., on extreme loss events. We then study our result and examine special cases, as well as the optimal portfolio selection using such measures. Finally, we show how the given multivariate tail moments can also be computed for log-skew elliptical models based on similar approaches given for the log-elliptical case.

Crypto-assets portfolio selection and optimization: a COGARCH-Rvine approach

Blockchain is a new technology slowly integrating our economy with crytocurrencies such as Bitcoin and many more applications. Bitcoin and other version of it (known as Altcoins) are traded everyday at various cryptocurrency exchanges and have drawn the interest of many investors. These new type of assets are characterised by wild swings in prices and this can lead to great profit as well as large losses. To respond to these dynamics, crypto investors need adequate tools to guide them through their choice of optimal portfolio selection. This paper presents a portfolio selection based on COGARCH and regular vine copula which are able to capture features such as abrupt jumps in prices, heavy-tailed distribution and dependence structure respectively, with the optimal portfolio achieved through the stochastic heuristic algorithm differential evolution known for its global search solution ability. This method shows great performance as compared with other available models and can achieve up to 50% of total returns in some periods of optimization.