Domestic Structures, Misalignment, and Defining the Climate Displacement Problem

This paper contrasts how climate reports describe displacement with how analyses of moving after disaster have described whether people move. The paper argues that domestic structures govern displacement, and are likely to continue to. Domestically, people have different legal statuses and access to resources, which shape the ability to move. Authoritative governance documents on climate change, including the United States National Climate Assessment, argue that climate change will lead to increasing numbers of displaced people. On the other hand, demographers and economists who study where people move to after disaster have argued that climate reports overstate the risk of mass displacement, based in what has happened after past disasters. Domestic governance processes influence resettlement, and they can change. Studies of whether people move after disaster do not take into account how changes in insurance rates or other rules shaping where people live could reshape resettlement. On the other hand, analyses of governing potential climate displacement draw on international agreements and documents. has often centered on islands advocates argue will disappear, not the changing habitability of places that also depends on the resources people have. The image of disappearing islands misdirects from the risks of climate displacement in wealthier countries, where some people have extensive resources and others do not. This paper argues that the risk of displacement requires turning to follow the domestic governance processes that shape people’s decisions now. This approach fits with calls to work from people’s claims up to governance processes, rather than from processes downward.

Socioeconomic and comorbid factors affecting mortality and length of stay in COVID-19

Background The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic exposed and exacerbated health disparities between socioeconomic groups. Our purpose was to determine which disparities are most prevalent and their impact on length of stay (LoS) and in hospital mortality in patients diagnosed with Covid-19. Methods De-Identified data for patients who tested positive for COVID-19 was abstracted from the HCA enterprise database. Data was binned into summary tables. A negative binomial regression with LoS as the dependent variable and a logistic regression of in-hospital mortality data, using age, insurance status, sex, comorbidities as the dependent variables, were performed. Results From March 1, 2020 to August 23, 2020, of 111,849 covid testing patient records, excluding those with missing data (n=7), without confirmed COVID-19 (n=27,225), and those from a carceral environment (n=1,861), left 84,624 eligible patients. Compared to the US population, the covid cohort had more black patients (23.17% vs 13.4%). Compared to the white cohort, the black cohort had higher private insurance rates (28.52% vs. 23.68%), shorter LoS (IRR=0.97 CI=0.95-0.99, P<0.01) and lower adjusted mortality (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.75-0.97). Increasing age was associated with increased mortality and LoS. Patients with Medicare or Medicaid had longer LoS (IRR=1.07, 95% CI=1.04-1.09) and higher adjusted mortality rates (OR=1.11, 95% CI=1-1.23) than those with private insurance Conclusion Conclusions We found that when blacks have higher rates of private insurance, they have shorter hospitalizations and lower mortality than whites, when diagnosed with Covid-19. Some other psychiatric and medical conditions also significantly impacted outcomes in patients with Covid-19.

Current models in the field of agricultural crops insurance

Agricultural production is an important and at the same time the most risky type of economic activity. Its reproductive process is associated with natural and climatic, biological and financial factors, the action of which in many cases is difficult to forgive and control. Crop production is particularly affected by cumulative natural risks. One of the ways to minimize agricultural risks is to use crop insurance as an important means of ensuring the riskiness of agricultural production from probable natural and weather factors. The pricing mechanism for crop insurance services is substantiated, based on the improvement of the insurer’s tariff policy when conducting crop insurance, which is implemented through a system of actuarial calculations and taking into account the peculiarities of insurance in the process of crop production. The possibility for insurance companies to carry out high-quality selection of agricultural risks, stimulating agricultural producers to insure, is analyzed. Actuarial balance has been studied as a necessary condition for improving the tariff policy of crop insurance, which should be based on such principles as: equivalence of insurance relations; admissibility; stability of insurance rates over a long period of time and expansion of insurance liability. The calculation of insurance rates has been improved by taking into account the availability of prices for insurance services, depending on the number of possible risks transferred to insurance and the amount of financial resources accumulated by the insurer, which should be sufficient to reimburse crops under crop insurance contracts. Actuarial balance is identified as a necessary condition for improving the tariff policy of crop insurance. The principles of insurance tariff policy to improve the calculation of insurance rates and the application of actuarial models in the field of crop insurance. Key words: tariff policy, insurance tariff, actuary, actuarial mathematics, actuarial model of agricultural insurance.

The burden in the social insurance system on business entities in Ukraine and the EU

The article considers the burden in the social insurance system on business entities of Ukraine and EU countries. A comparison of northern European and continental models of social insurance is made. The system of social insurance in terms of payment of contributions by economic entities of Ukraine and EU countries is analyzed and a comparative description is made. An analysis of the reform of insurance rates for business entities for compulsory state social insurance in Ukraine, as well as the dynamics of the single social contribution from businesses. The influence of the load in the social insurance system on economic entities on the level of shadowing of the state economy is substantiated. The article defines the dynamics of the integrated indicator of the level of the shadow economy in Ukraine and the growth / decrease of real GDP. The factors that contribute to the growth of the shadow economy in the EU countries are identified and the shadow sector in these countries is analyzed. An approach to reduce the burden in the social insurance system on business entities of Ukraine is proposed.

Estimating Major Risk Factor Relativities in Rate Filings Using Generalized Linear Models.

Predictive modeling is a key technique in auto insurance rate-making and the decision-making involved in the review of rate filings. Unlike an approach based on hypothesis testing, the results from predictive modeling not only serve as statistical evidence for decision-making, they also discover relationships between a response variable and predictors. In this work, we study the use of predictive modeling in auto insurance rate filings. This is a typical area of actuarial practice involving decision-making using industry loss data. The aim of this study was to offer some general guidelines for using predictive modeling in regulating insurance rates. Our study demonstrates that predictive modeling techniques based on generalized linear models (GLMs) are suitable in auto insurance rate filings review. The GLM relativities of major risk factors can serve as the benchmark of the same risk factors considered in auto insurance pricing.

Estimating Major Risk Factor Relativities in Rate Filings Using Generalized Linear Models.

Predictive modeling is a key technique in auto insurance rate-making and the decision-making involved in the review of rate filings. Unlike an approach based on hypothesis testing, the results from predictive modeling not only serve as statistical evidence for decision-making, they also discover relationships between a response variable and predictors. In this work, we study the use of predictive modeling in auto insurance rate filings. This is a typical area of actuarial practice involving decision-making using industry loss data. The aim of this study was to offer some general guidelines for using predictive modeling in regulating insurance rates. Our study demonstrates that predictive modeling techniques based on generalized linear models (GLMs) are suitable in auto insurance rate filings review. The GLM relativities of major risk factors can serve as the benchmark of the same risk factors considered in auto insurance pricing.

Improving Aviation Insurance System in Russia

The article is devoted to the study of aviation insurance system in Russia. The novelty is the presentation of aviation insurance as a system of elements. Within the framework of the study, the ranking of insurance companies by indicators of financial stability was carried out on the basis of the methodology proposed by Sberbank. The most stable company is National Insurance Group. An important result is the comparative analysis of aviation industry and aviation insurance industry in the period before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. As a part of the study, the dynamics of passenger traffic was analyzed, and the features of the formation of insurance rates before and after the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic were revealed. The authors offer recommendations for insurance companies in order to help them overcome the crisis as soon as possible.

SPECIFICITY OF INSURANCE SERVICES OF CONSTRUCTION AND MOUNTING INDUSTRY

The article investigates the features of installation and construction risks insurance. It is found that relations in the field of insurance in Ukraine are regulated by the Law of Ukraine "On Insurance", but this regulatory act does not contain special provisions for construction insurance. It is emphasized that insurance in the field of construction includes a set of risks related to several branches of insurance. Objects of installation and construction risks insurance by relevant branches of insurance are identified. The types of insurance programmes in construction developed by world practice are systematized. Analysis of information from the websites of insurance companies operating in the insurance market of Ukraine and providing insurance services for construction risk insurance has led to the conclusion that currently in Ukraine, technical risk insurance is mostly carried out as property interest insurance during construction or installation work, or as the third-party liability insurance. In addition, the websites of most insurance companies provide only a list of objects and risks that are subject to installation and construction risks insurance. In some cases, this list is not specified and is represented by generalized wording (for example, IC ASKA). The analysis also has shown that indicative information on the level of insurance rates can be obtained only on the websites of 5 insurance companies out of 10 considered. Accordingly, conclusions are made about the state of development of risks insurance in the construction industry on the basis of the results obtained. In Ukraine in terms of installation and construction risks insurance, insurance companies provide insurance coverage of individual risks, not all risks (CAR), which may occur on the construction site, in contrast to world practice. Most companies provide construction risks insurance according to the rules of fire insurance. In addition, insurers' risks increase due to the low level of responsibility of developers to investors. Neither the legislation nor the terms of the contracts prevailing on the market require a higher level of responsibility. The construction industry in our country is developing dynamically, so there is a need for the improvement of construction and installation risk insurance. Nowadays, installation and construction risks insurance in our country is available only to large professional insurers who have reinsurance contracts with foreign reinsurers.

Die Hamburger Seeversicherung vom 17. bis zur Mitte des 19. Jahrhunderts

Hamburg’s marine insurance from the 17th to the middle of the 19th centuryIn the eighteenth century, Hamburg emerged as the third-most important marine insurance market in North-West Europe, after Amsterdam and London, with an impact in the entire Baltic Sea area, but partially in ports along the Atlantic coast and in the Mediterranean as well. On the basis of selected examples this contribution outlines the long-term development of marine insurance rates and explains how and why it gradually became less and less expensive to insure ships and goods in maritime transport. At the same time, the paper examines the factors of pricing of the marine insurance rates, i. e. analyses the significance of different various risk factors. Finally, the importance of (marine) insurance as a central transaction cost of trade and (maritime) transport in pre-industrial times is made clear. It is explained, that the long-term minimalisation of the risks involved in the maritime traffic did start only after the Napoleonic Wars and the subjugation of the last pirates in the Atlantic and the Mediterranean, which, however, occurred long before the introduction of steam shipping and other innovations in maritime transport and international communication.