Does Reduction of Contribution Rate Affect the Sustainability of China’s Basic Endowment Insurance Fund?—Based on the Background of National Pooling and Collection Responsibility Transformation

Sustainability is an urgent issue in the basic endowment insurance system in China. The advancement of the national pooling and the transfer of collection responsibility from the social security department to the taxation department are the policy measures taken to ensure the sustainable development of the endowment insurance system. In this circumstance, this paper discusses the solvency of the national pooling account fund of basic endowment insurance when the enterprise contribution rate drops to 16% by constructing an improved theoretical actuarial model. The conclusion shows that under the national pooling mode of peeling off historical debt and personal account, even if the contribution rate drops to 16%, the basic endowment insurance fund in China will still have strong solvency in the long run. In addition, due to the transfer of the collection responsibility of the basic endowment insurance, the proportion of the actual number of payers to the number of in-service insured will gradually increase to 100%, and the calculation results in this paper show that the bankruptcy scope of China’s basic pension insurance funds will be postponed to the year of 2113. This study enriches the relevant literature and solves a policy concern in the reform of China’s basic endowment insurance system: Does reduction of contribution rate affect the sustainability of the basic endowment insurance system?

Income Redistribution Effect of Raising the Overall Planning Level of Basic Endowment Insurance for Urban Employees in China

It is the focus of social security system reform at this stage in China to promote the transition of basic endowment insurance for urban employees from provincial overall planning level to national overall planning level, which is of great significance to the realization of fair and efficient of economic development. Based on the micro data of China Household Finance Survey 2017 (CHFS2017), this paper first establishes a personal wage prediction model to estimate the distribution of personal lifetime wage income, then designs two pension collection and payment plans of “direct national overall planning” and “indirect national overall planning”, and establishes an actuarial model of pension to calculate the present value of personal lifetime contribution, lifetime claim and lifetime real wage income after pension adjustment under different overall planning levels. Finally, the income gap index and net benefit rate index are used to measure the change of the whole income gap and the transfer of pension benefits. The results show that on the whole, the basic endowment insurance for urban employees does have a significant income redistribution effect, and its income adjustment effect is positively related to the overall planning level and intensity of the system. Under the current provincial overall planning level, the income redistribution effects of the system are as follows: the high-income group transfers to the low-income group, the young generation to the elderly generation, the female insured person to the male insured person, and the non-state-owned economic unit to the state-owned economic unit. With the improvement of the overall planning level and strengthening of intensity, there are differences in the changes of benefits among different groups.

An Empirical Study on Residents' Consumption Changes Based on the Development of Commercial Annuity

The relationship between the level of pension insurance development and the consumption of Chinese residents is a topic of constant debate. However, few scholars have analyzed residents' consumption behavior based on the level of commercial annuity development. Using China's 2010-2018 inter-provincial panel data, this article builds a dynamic panel regression model to explore the impact of the development of commercial annuities on household consumption and its structure. In addition, the paper also compares the impact of the protection levels of basic pension insurance and commercial annuity on household consumption. The results show that the per capita disposable income of residents is still the main factor that promotes residents’ consumption. The improvement of commercial annuity and basic endowment insurance will help to promote residents' consumption, and the effect of commercial annuity's promotion on residents' consumption is more significant. In promoting the optimization and upgrading of consumption structure, commercial annuity insurance plays a more significant role than residents' income level and basic pension insurance. Based on the regression results, this article suggests that efforts should be made to increase the income level of residents and promote consumption from the root cause. At the same time, it is necessary to improve the commercial pension insurance system as soon as possible and steadily promote the coordinated development of the "three pillars" pension insurance system.

The New Fertility Policy and the Actuarial Balance of China Urban Employee Basic Endowment Insurance Fund Based on Stochastic Mortality Model

This study aims to investigate the impact of China’s new fertility policy on the actuarial balance of its Urban Employee Basic Endowment Insurance (UEBEI) fund, with stochastic mortality model included to address the longevity risk. Combined with the latest UEBEI policy, this paper constructs an actuarial balance model and introduces the growth rate of wage, the age of employment and the age of retirement, the rate of payment, the rate of replacement, the annual rate of pension adjustment, and the population in terms of age into the model, which arise from the rate of payment, average wage, and personal and social factors. This study uses the sixth population census data by age group and gender to employ empirical analysis. The sensitivity analysis of China’s basic pension insurance fund balance is made. It is concluded that the increase in the growth rate of wage caused by social factors, the increase of fund investment returns, the delay of retirement, and the increase in the fund collection rate are all conducive to the sustainability of the UEBEI fund.