Predicting the Daily 10.7-cm Solar Radio Flux Using the Long Short-Term Memory Method

As an important index of solar activity, the 10.7-cm solar radio flux (F10.7) can indicate changes in the solar EUV radiation, which plays an important role in the relationship between the Sun and the Earth. Therefore, it is valuable to study and forecast F10.7. In this study, the long short-term memory (LSTM) method in machine learning is used to predict the daily value of F10.7. The F10.7 series from 1947 to 2019 are used. Among them, the data during 1947–1995 are adopted as the training dataset, and the data during 1996–2019 (solar cycles 23 and 24) are adopted as the test dataset. The fourfold cross validation method is used to group the training set for multiple validations. We find that the root mean square error (RMSE) of the prediction results is only 6.20~6.35 sfu, and the correlation coefficient (R) is as high as 0.9883~0.9889. The overall prediction accuracy of the LSTM method is equivalent to those of the widely used autoregressive (AR) and backpropagation neural network (BP) models. Especially for 2-day and 3-day forecasts, the LSTM model is slightly better. All this demonstrates the potentiality of the LSTM method in the real-time forecasting of F10.7 in future.

Development of a local empirical model of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and its application for studying solar-ionospheric effects

Regular and irregular variations in total electron content (TEC) are one of the most significant observables in ionospheric studies. During the solar cycle 24, the variability of ionosphere is studied using global positioning system derived TEC at a mid-latitude station, Tehran (35.70N, 51.33E). Based on solar radio flux and seasonal and local time-dependent features of TEC values, a semi-empirical model is developed to represent its monthly/hourly mean values. Observed values of TEC and the results of our semi-empirical model then are compared with estimated values of a standard plasmasphere–ionosphere model. The outcome of this model is an expected mean TEC value considering the monthly/hourly regular effects of solar origin. Thus, it is possible to use it for monitoring irregular effects induced by solar events. As a result, the connection of TEC variations with solar activities are studied for the case of coronal mass ejections accompanying extreme solar flares. TEC response to solar flares of class X is well reproduced by this model. Our resulting values show that the most powerful flares (i.e. class X) induce a variation of more than 20 percent in daily TEC extent.

AIM-E auroral ionosphere model adjustment for the regular E layer

The E-Region Auroral Ionosphere Model (AIM-E) was developed to determine the chemical composition and electron density in the auroral zone at E-layer heights (90–150 km). Solar and magnetic activity input parameters for AIM-E are the three-hour Ap index and the daily solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm (index F10.7). In this paper, we compare AIM-E calculations of the electron density for the daytime with EUV radiation spectrum specified in two different ways: 1) the EUV spectrum theoretically calculated using the F10.7 index as an input parameter; 2) using TIMED satellite direct measurements of the EUV spectrum. We have corrected the EUVAC EUV radiation model to specify a photoionization source in AIM-E. Calculations of regular E-region critical frequencies show good agreement with the vertical sounding data from Russian high-latitude stations. Results we obtained make it possible to do a quick on-line assessment of the regular E layer, using the daily index F10.7 as an input parameter.

AIM-E auroral ionosphere model adjustment for the regular E layer

The E-Region Auroral Ionosphere Model (AIM-E) was developed to determine the chemical composition and electron density in the auroral zone at E-layer heights (90–150 km). Solar and magnetic activity input parameters for AIM-E are the three-hour Ap index and the daily solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm (index F10.7). In this paper, we compare AIM-E calculations of the electron density for the daytime with EUV radiation spectrum specified in two different ways: 1) the EUV spectrum theoretically calculated using the F10.7 index as an input parameter; 2) using TIMED satellite direct measurements of the EUV spectrum. We have corrected the EUVAC EUV radiation model to specify a photoionization source in AIM-E. Calculations of regular E-region critical frequencies show good agreement with the vertical sounding data from Russian high-latitude stations. Results we obtained make it possible to do a quick on-line assessment of the regular E layer, using the daily index F10.7 as an input parameter.

Status of GGOS JWG3 on Improved understanding of space weather events and their monitoring

<p>The JWG3 aims at investigating different approaches to monitor space weather events using the data from different space geodetic techniques and, in particular, combinations thereof. Simulations will also be considered since these could be beneficial to identify the contribution of different techniques and prepare for the analysis of real data. Different strategies for the combination of data are also to be investigated, in particular the weighting of estimates from different techniques in order to increase the performance and reliability of the combined estimates.</p><p>Furthermore, existing algorithms for the detection and prediction of space weather events shall be explored and improved to the extent possible. Additionally, the geodetic measurement of the ionospheric electron density will be complemented by direct observations from the Sun gathered from existing spacecraft, such as SOHO, ACE, SDO, Parker Solar Probe, among others. The combination and joint evaluation of multiple datasets from different space geodetic observation techniques (e.g., geodetic VLBI) is still a great challenge. In addition, other indications for solar activity - such as the F10.7 index on solar radio flux, SOLERA as EUV proxy or rate of Global Electron Content (dGEC), provide additional opportunities for comparisons and validation.</p><p>As per JWG3 objectives, these include the identification of the key parameters useful to improve real time/prediction of ionospheric/plasmaspheric VTEC, Ne estimates, as well as ionospheric perturbations, in case of extreme solar weather conditions. In general, we are on the way to gain a better understanding of space weather events and their effect on Earth’s atmosphere and near-Earth environment.</p>

PROBLEMS OF ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FIRST PHASE 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, DETERMINING STATES OF BIOSPHERE SYSTEMS

The paper considers the results of the analysis and prediction of the dynamics of so-lar activity from the series of the solar radio flux density at a frequency of 2.8 GHz and the relative Wolf numbers, proposed by the leading analytical groups, as well as by the authors of this publication. The typological characteristics of the upcoming situations of socio-economic development of Russia are indicated.