Informality and macroeconomic volatility: do credit constraints matter?

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the implications of borrowing constraints characterizing the informal sector for macroeconomic volatility. Design/methodology/approach – To this end, the author develops a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model wherein registered activity not only is the basis to determine tax liabilities, but also serves as collateral for securing debts. Such a framework allows for computational experiments to analyze the effect of informality on aggregate fluctuations. Findings – The experiments show that the credit-constrained informal sector does exert a significant influence on the cyclical volatility of consumption and investment. Originality/value – There are not many studies addressing the implications of informal economic activities for macroeconomic fluctuations. This paper contributes to the literature by developing a theoretical model showing that credit constraints characterizing these activities might play a non-negligible role in explaining the cyclical volatility of some important aggregates.

Industrial Output in the USSR and Russia, 1861—2012. Part II. Crises and Cycles

Calculation of the aggregated "consensus" industrial production index has made it possible to date cyclical turning points and to measure the depth and length of the main industrial recessions in Russian Empire/USSR/Russia for the last century and a half. The most important causes of all these recessions are described. The cyclical volatility of Soviet/Russian industry is compared to that of American one.

The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?

The author discusses the failure of the canonical search and matching model to explain the cyclical volatility in the job finding rate. The author - the Nobel Prize winner in economics in 2010 - shows that job creation in the model is influenced by wages in new matches. He summarizes microeconometric evidence and finds that wages in new matches are volatile and consistent with the models key predictions. Therefore, explanations of the unemployment volatility puzzle have to preserve the cyclical volatility of wages. The author discusses a modification of the model, based on fixed matching costs, that can increase cyclical unemployment volatility and is consistent with wage flexibility in new matches.

The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility

We investigate the consequences of demographic change for business cycle analysis. We find that changes in the age composition of the labor force account for a significant fraction of the variation in cyclical volatility observed in the G7. Since World War II, these countries have experienced dramatic demographic changes, although details regarding timing and nature differ across countries. We exploit this variation to show that the workforce age composition has a large and significant effect on cyclical volatility. We relate our results to the recent decline in US macroeconomic volatility, finding that demographic change accounts for approximately one-fifth to one-third of this moderation. (JEL E32, J11)