Impacts of price, weather and policy changes on maize and rice farming in Togo

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate how climatic, market and policy factors interact to determine food production in Togo. Specifically, we estimate acreage and yield response to market prices, weather and policy changes for maize and rice.Design/methodology/approachWe use panel data estimators in a Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Equation (SURE) model with region-level data from the Food and Agriculture Organization statistics department and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US Department of commerce.FindingsWe found lower fertilizer price and higher grain price effects on maize acreage and yield. In addition, we found a positive effect of expected rice price on both its acreage and yield. As expected, rainfall during planting months has a significant impact on both maize (April) and paddy (May) acreage allocations. Similarly, total rainfall during the growing season has a positive impact on both maize and paddy yields. Moreover, recent agricultural policy initiative designed to boost domestic food production has significantly increased acreage and yield for maize, and yield for paddy, especially the strategy for agricultural growth.Research limitations/implicationsThe dataset includes region-level observations from 1991 to 2012 which limits the observation span. However, we had enough variability in key variables to determine the estimated coefficients.Practical implicationsAlthough the dataset is limited in time (1991–2012) and uses national-level output prices, this investigation reveals that cropland allocation to maize and rice is sensitive to fertilizer and grain prices, weather expectations and policy interventions. These findings provide evidence for sustainable food production and productivity enhancement in Togo.Social implicationsUnderstanding drivers of cropland allocation and cereal yield contribute to better food security and poverty reduction in developing countries, especially Togo.Originality/valuePrior to this study, little was known on the effect of price, climate and policy on cropland allocation in Togo. This investigation contributes significantly to filling this knowledge gap and provides insights for effective interventions.

Farmers' response to COVID-19 disruptions in the food systems in Ghana: the case of cropland allocation decision.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global health issue with disruption effects in the agricultural food systems especially in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where most of the population is engaged in the agricultural sector. While prices of food commodities continue to increase, farmers are likely to be food insecure or market-oriented by allocating land resources between commercial and staple crops. This study provides new evidence on the determining factors of cropland allocation decisions within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study employs the probit and seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models on 309 farm households. The results reveal that socio-economic, production, institutional, and political factors significantly influence the choice of cropland allocation decisions and the size of cropland allocated to legumes and cereals. Beyond these factors, we find that COVID-19 education increases land area allocated to staples while farmers' perception that COVID-19 will impact negatively on agricultural production leads to an increase in the area under commercial crop (soybean) production. The result suggests that promoting farmer education on the disruptive effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and understanding farmer perceptions of the disruptive effects of the COVID-19 will guide future adaptation and mitigation strategies as well as determining the "best" possible cropland allocation decision.

Assessing whether the best land is cultivated first: A quantile analysis

Classical land rent theories imply that the best land is cultivated first. This principle forms the basis of many land-use studies, but empirical evidence remains limited, especially on a global scale. In this paper, we estimate the effects of agricultural suitability and market accessibility on the spatial allocation of cultivated areas at a 30 arc-min resolution in 15 world regions. Our results show that both determinants often have a significant positive effect on the cropland fraction, but with large variations in strength across regions. Based on a quantile analysis, we find that agricultural suitability is the dominant driver of cropland allocation in North America, Middle East and North Africa and Eastern Europe, whereas market accessibility shows a stronger effect in other regions, such as Western Africa. In some regions, such as South and Central America, both determinants have a limited effect on cropland fraction. Comparison of high versus low quantile regression coefficients shows that, in most regions, densely cropped areas are more sensitive to agricultural suitability and market accessibility than sparsely cropped areas.

Linear Programming-Based Cropland Allocation to Enhance Performance of Smallholder Crop Production: A Pilot Study in Abaro Kebele, Ethiopia

Smallholder farmer crop production is a mainstay of the Ethiopian economy. A series of agricultural extension programs have been implemented since the 1950s in an effort to improve smallholder productivity. In this study, we argue that the limited attention that is given to cropland allocation by smallholders is one key driver of low performance of crop production as well as a key factor in environmental degradation. Drawing on data from a household survey of 75 randomly selected households in Abaro Kebele, Ethiopia, combined with focus-group discussions, key informant interviews, and secondary data sources, we use linear programming to highlight the impact of cropland allocation decisions on the performance of rural smallholder crop production systems. We find that under current land use practices households are not able to meet their consumption needs. The average profitability of farms under the current cropland allocation is also significantly below the estimated level of profit that could be realized by reallocating cropland while using linear programming. Additionally, survey results suggest that low crop production performance (in terms of meeting both household food crop production needs and profit goals) is the primary reason why households do not participate in conservation efforts and sustainable resource management practices. This study suggests that linear programming-based cropland allocation modeling might be applied to enhance the profit performance of smallholder crop production, help meet household food crop production requirements, and thereby promote the sustainable utilization of environmental resources.

Role of Linear Programming Based Cropland Allocation to Enhance Performance of Smallholder Crop Production: A Pilot Study on Abaro Kebele, Shashemene Zuria District, West Arsi Zone, Oromiya Regional State, Ethiopia

Crop production is a major livelihood activity of smallholders in Ethiopia. However, it is often characterized by low performance. In an effort to improve crop production, a series of agricultural extension programs have been running in Ethiopia since the 1950s. Nevertheless, the performance of agriculture is still low. In this study, it is argued that the limited attention given to cropland allocation methodologies is one of the major causes of low performance of crop production and increased environmental degradation. This study used linear programming to examine the role and impacts of cropland allocation methods on performance of crop production. The data for this study was drawn from household survey of 75 randomly selected households combined with focus-grouped discussion, key informant interview, and secondary data. In the current conventional cropland allocation, households were not able to meet their household consumption. The average profitability of farms under current practice was found significantly below than estimated optimal level of profit that could be realized using linear programming. In addition, it uncovered that low performance of crop production (in terms of meeting household consumption demand and profitability) is the primary cause that limited the effort of households to participate in environmental and natural resource management. This study suggests the use of linear programming-based cropland allocation to enhance the profit performance of smallholder crop production, meeting household consumption requirement, and thereby promote sustainable utilization of natural and environmental resources.