Aggregated space combat modeling

The use of aggregated combat modeling in the cislunar environment has been demonstrated to inform acquisition decisions for the United States Space Force (USSF). First, the cislunar space is hypothesized as a future strategic conflict environment. As such, Lanchester, Lotka–Volterra, and Brackney models could be appropriate to describe such conflict. All models encompass a system of differential equations which parametrically capture the dynamics between friendly and hostile forces. While the Brackney model was constructed to explain two-dimensional land battle, this article adapts it for the respective three-dimensional space domain and applies it to strategic procurement. The analysis demonstrates the pre-eminence of Space Domain Awareness (SDA) in certain contexts while recognizing conditions in which spacecraft survivability holds greater importance.

Gaming and Modeling Combat

This chapter discusses wargaming, combat modeling, and simulation, as well as force sizing and other issues related to military operations and warfighting scenarios. It argues that the ultimate purpose of wargaming and modeling is to help a country like the United States decide what kind of military, and military budget, it needs — as well as when and how to decide to use force. The chapter examines simple models of combat, starting with Lanchester equations, derived by a British engineer early in the twentieth century. However, they do not account well for most types of modern warfare, so the chapter shifts to other models and emphasizes an approach modified from that of the late Trevor Dupuy, focused on air-ground combat. The chapter also studies naval combat, including amphibious assault, blockade operations, and nuclear exchange calculations. Ultimately, it concludes with a framework for analyzing progress, or the lack thereof, in counterinsurgency operations like those in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Hyper-Enabled Operator: Situational Awareness as Armor

The Hyper-Enabled Operator (HEO) project seeks to increase the survivability of special forces operators through increased situational awareness (SA) capabilities. The precursor to HEO was the Tactical Assault Light Operator Suit (TALOS) which sought to protect operators during room clearing operations by increasing their armor coverage. This study used combat modeling to compare the benefits of HEO to TALOS. This project developed four base models, each based on a relevant mission set. Each base model was compared against two variant models. The first variant provided the operators with enhanced SA. The second variant increased operator armor coverage without a performance degradation from increased weight. For some scenarios the incorporation of SA increased survivability more than a large increase in armor. Further, the study found that enhancing SA increases survivability by 8.3% on average for the four mission sets; this increase is similar to increasing armor coverage by a factor of four.

Integrating Autonomous Systems into Military Units

Autonomous systems are the future of military warfare and must be carefully employed to hold the advantage in technological advances. In an effort to measure the capabilities of autonomous systems within military units, this study analyzes the effects an autonomous system has while integrated into an Army Infantry unit. Using combat modeling software, a constructive reality modeled breaching and fires mission scenarios to determine the effects an autonomous system may have within a unit. Within the model limitations, statistical analysis supported that an autonomous system has a general impact on increasing a unit’s lethality and survivability. These statistically significant conclusions support that autonomous systems should be integrated within military units since these systems have a strong, positive impact on unit effectiveness. Additional data analysis and extending the analysis to other combat scenarios is crucial in applying these conclusions outside of the tested scenarios.

Lanchester Models for Irregular Warfare

Military operations research and combat modeling apply mathematical models to analyze a variety of military conflicts and obtain insights about these phenomena. One of the earliest and most important set of models used for combat modeling is the Lanchester equations. Legacy Lanchester equations model the mutual attritional dynamics of two opposing military forces and provide some insights regarding the fate of such engagements. In this paper, we review recent developments in Lanchester modeling, focusing on contemporary conflicts in the world. Specifically, we present models that capture irregular warfare, such as insurgencies, highlight the role of target information in such conflicts, and capture multilateral situations where several players are involved in the conflict (such as the current war in Syria).

The formation principles of the onboard system of information and intellectual support for the pilot

The operational experience of modern highly maneuverable aircraft with a super-maneuverability mode shows that the use of this mode in solving targets without the support of a pilot is ineffective. It should also be noted that under conditions of modern fleeting air combat, it is rather difficult for a pilot to determine the necessity and timeliness of using the super maneuverability mode. The paper is aimed at considering maneuverable air combat and presenting the principles of the formation of an airborne information and intellectual support system for the pilot. The results of studies carried out at the TsAGI air combat modeling complex on the development of the principles of the formation of an on-board pilot information and intellectual support system are discussed. The tasks that this system should solve are considered, and possible options for implementing the system in the on-board complex of modern fighters are presented.

Constructing and evaluating multi-resolution model pairs: an attrition modeling example

Our aim is to illustrate how to apply the methodology for characterizing the useful approximation zone of a lumping process, as described in an earlier note in this journal. Here we review the procedure steps and then go on to present an example in the combat modeling area. We conclude by discussing implications for approximate morphism support of multi-resolution modeling.