Identification of Psychological Crisis Signals of College Students Based on the Dufferin Equation

This paper presents an in-depth analysis and research on the identification of psychological crisis signals of college students using the optimized Dufferin equation. The early warning index system of college students’ psychological crisis was established and tested on 300 junior college students, and the early warning system of college students’ psychological crisis was established by using structural equation model, focusing on the mediating effect of coping mode between stress source and stress response and the mediating effect of stress source between social support and stress response. At the same time, the characteristics of psychological crises among college students of different genders and grades were compared and analyzed. To address the shortcomings of the classical Dufferin equation with limited noise immunity, the use of a higher-order double-coupled Dufferin system was further improved. A detection model based on the higher-order double-coupled system was established, and its feasibility was verified by the psychological crisis signal. The geometric features of the phase trajectory are adopted as the basis for judging the system state, which greatly reduces the computational effort. Based on defining the conceptual connotation of college students’ psychological crisis behavior system, the vulnerability of college students’ psychological crisis behavior system is interpreted from the perspective of system self-organization theory, and the vulnerability of college students’ psychological crisis behavior is mainly expressed in latent and manifest states, and its vulnerability transformation is a self-organization process. A questionnaire survey was conducted for ordinary college students to examine the performance of college students’ vulnerability state of the subject who endured college students’ psychological crisis behavior, and it was concluded that most college students appear to be normal and healthy on the surface, but college students’ vulnerability is in an uncertain state of intermediate transition.

Regime Uncertainty and Interstate Conflict

Regime type is an important variable in international relations. Numerous scholars have theorized its effects on actors’ crisis behavior and outcomes. Despite regime type's importance, the literature has not focused on the role its uncertainty might play in interstate politics. This is in stark contrast to the scholarly attention given to uncertainty about other similarly important variables like actor capabilities, intentions, or fighting costs. In this paper, we aim to address this gap in the literature by providing a theory of regime uncertainty's effects on conflict and developing a novel measure of uncertainty about regime type in interstate relations to test our hypotheses. We find that regime uncertainty breeds caution rather than conflict: higher uncertainty about the opponent's regime type makes conflict initiation and escalation less likely in disputes, and dyads with more uncertainty are less likely to experience conflict onset.

Public Opinion and Crisis Behavior in a Nuclearized South Asia

Research on public opinion and crisis behavior has focused largely on pressures felt by leaders who have initiated a crisis, not on leaders in target states responding to adversary provocation. Our survey experiment involving 1,823 respondents in Punjab, Pakistan, finds public support for escalating rather than de-escalating in response to such provocation. It shows how public pressures can encourage conflict even in instances where a leader has engaged in no prior effort to generate audience costs following crisis onset. Survey respondents were more likely to support escalatory decisions if they were made by a military, rather than civilian, leader, although we do not find that military leaders receive more support in de-escalatory decisions. Finally, while we demonstrate that leaders can mitigate the costs of de-escalating by highlighting the dangers of conflict, they still incur opportunity costs in foregone public support when they opt to de-escalate rather than escalate a crisis.

Aab Ky Marr! Pulwama to Balakot: India's New Normal

Pulwama/Balakot crisis is important for several reasons. The prime amongst it is that Pakistan changed the rule of the game. It not only thwarted India's design, it effectively demonstrated that it could respond to any Indian aggression through conventional means. The paper argues that although India and Pakistan had a narrow escape during the conflict, there is a need for a cautious approach when it comes to Indo-Pakistan strategic stability. The papers focus on the crisis behavior of both countries and argue that while India intentionally initiated the crisis whereas Pakistan took every step to deescalate. At the end of the crisis, Modi claimed that India was prepared to hit Pakistan with multiple missiles if it had not returned the IAF pilot. While it might be music to his ultra-Hindu fundamentalist supporters, in fact, it was nothing but a desperate attempt to restore his credibility. In the subcontinental culture, aab ky Marr explains such a mindset.

The International Crisis Behavior Project

Over the course of more than four decades the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project, a major and ongoing data-gathering enterprise in the social sciences, has compiled data that continues to be accessed heavily in scholarship on conflict processes. ICB holdings consist of full-length qualitative case studies, along with an expanding range of quantitative data sets. Founded in 1975, the ICB Project is among the most visible and influential within the discipline of International Relations (IR). A wide range of studies based either primarily or in part on the ICB’s concepts and data have accumulated and cover subjects that include the causes, processes, and consequences of crises. The breadth of ICB’s contribution has expanded over time to go beyond a purely state-centric approach to include crisis-related activities of transnational actors across a range of categories. ICB also offers depth through, for example, potential resolution of contemporary debates about mediation in crises on the basis of nuanced findings about long- versus short-term impact with regard to conflict resolution.

Forced Migration Magnitude and violence in international crises: 1945–2015

This study focuses on forced migration and interstate violence during international crises, as a major security concern with salient implications for international relations stability. The empirical data consists of 229 crises designated as Forced Migration Crises (FMC), identified within the 374 crises of the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) project. The study outlines a framework for analyzing FMC compared with Non-Forced Migration Crises (NFMC), presents an index of Forced Migration Magnitude (FMM), and probes three hypotheses. It points to transformations in forced migration since WWII, compares crises with and without forced migration, and explores patterns of FMM and violence. Results lead to rejection of hypothesis 1 on similarities between FMC and NFMC, supporting hypothesis 2 on considerable diversity between them. Findings on extended scope, strategic locale, enduring forced migration problems and increased violence support hypothesis 3, challenging the placement of forced migration merely as a social or humanitarian domestic concern. Instead, results show a salient increase in FMM, coupled with more severe interstate violence and war, dangerously destabilizing regions worldwide. These patterns require the integration of forced migration within crisis frameworks, as a new research agenda, to understand the nature of forced migration in the 21st century and its impact.