Firm-Level Shocks and Labor Flows

This paper analyzes how labor ows respond to permanent idiosyncratic shifts in rm-level production functions and demand curves using very detailed Swedish micro data. Shocks to rms physical productivity have only modest eects on rm-level employment decisions. In contrast, the paper documents rapid and substantial employment adjustments through hires and separations in response to rm-level demand shocks. The choice of adjustment margin depends on the sign of the shock: rms adjust through increased hires if these shocks are positive and through increased separations if the shocks are negative.

THE ROLE OF LABOR MARKET FRICTIONS IN STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION

Large productivity gaps across sectors persist and the process of structural transformation is stagnant in many developing economies. This wedge between observed and optimal labor allocations reflects the presence of institutional and market frictions, which impose costs on the optimal reallocation of labor from low- to high-productivity sectors. Using a panel of cross-country sector-level data, I estimate a dynamic panel error correction model that captures the dynamics of sectoral labor flows. The model estimates provide a new set of stylized facts on the dynamics of the structural transformation process and a measure of the magnitude of frictions facing labor flows. In addition, I analyze the contribution of labor regulations and reforms to the pace at which labor flows across economic sectors. Results suggest that policy reforms need to steer between the goal of easing job creation and destruction, while supporting labor supply incentives to reallocate through strong social nets, labor protection, and risk sharing.

Trade and Manufacturing Jobs in Germany

The German economy exhibits rising service and declining manufacturing employment, but this decline is much sharper in import-competing than export-oriented branches. We first document the individual-level job transitions behind those trends. They are not driven by manufacturing workers who smoothly switch to services. The observed shifts are entirely due to young entrants and returnees from non-employment. We then investigate if rising trade with China and Eastern Europe causally affected those labor flows. Exploiting variation across industries and regions, we find that globalization did not speed up the manufacturing decline in Germany. It even retained those jobs in the economy.