Estimating the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) and Population Mobility on Daily COVID-19 Cases: Evidence from Ontario

This study employs COVID-19 case counts and Google mobility data for twelve of Ontario’s largest Public Health Units from Spring 2020 until the end of January 2021 to evaluate the effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs: policy restrictions on business operations and social gatherings) and population mobility on daily cases. Instrumental Variables (IV) estimation is used to account for potential simultaneity bias, as both daily COVID-19 cases and NPIs are dependent on lagged case numbers. IV estimates based on differences in lag lengths to infer causal estimates, imply that the implementation of stricter NPIs and indoor mask mandates are associated with COVID-19 case reductions. Further, estimates based on Google mobility data suggest that increases in workplace attendance are correlated with higher case counts. Finally, from October 2020 to January 2021, daily Ontario forecasts from Box-Jenkins time-series models are more accurate than official forecasts and forecasts from a Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) epidemiology model.

The Reciprocal Relationship Between Earnings Management, Disclosure Quality and Board Independence: UK Evidence

We empirically examine the reciprocal relationships between disclosure quality, board independence and earnings management. Disclosure quality is measured using the IR Magazine Award, the number of forward looking information in the annual report as well as the analyst forecast accuracy. We estimate earnings management using modified Jones Model, while board independence is measured using the percentage of independent directors in the board. We remedied the simultaneity bias in our study using a simultaneous system of equation, which was estimated using two-stage least square regression (2SLS). Match-paired samples comprised of the winners and non-winners of the IR Magazine Award during the years from 2005-2008 were employed in our study. Our finding reported that there is a negative reciprocal relationship between disclosure quality and earnings management. We notice that these findings are robust across all disclosure quality measurement that we utilised in our 2 Stage Least Square (2SLS) regression. Only one way (negative) causality between board independence and earnings management is demonstrated (in the board independence equation). In regards to disclosure quality and board independence, we found mixed findings. In this instance, our result demonstrated that there is no reciprocal relationship between disclosure quality and board independence (measured using IRAWARD). Nonetheless, we reported a positive reciprocal relationship between board independence and disclosure quality when forward looking information is utilized as to represent disclosure quality and a negative relationship between these variables when analyst forecast accuracy is employed. Our finding suggests that future research should take into account the potential simultaneity bias when examining the relationship between disclosure quality, earnings management and board independence.

GREAT ENGINES TURN ON SMALL PIVOTS: A PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS OF SMALL-SCALE MANUFACTURING IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN

This paper uses estimates of total factor productivity of small enterprises to identify the reasons underlying idiosyncratic variation. Empirical analysis is used to segregate internal and external determinants of productivity using a novel dataset. For reliable estimation, the baseline estimates are corrected for simultaneity bias using instrumental variables and selectivity bias through Heckman correction. Results identify significance of factors operating within firms; educational qualification and professional training of entrepreneurs for higher levels of productivity and the external drivers of productivity differences; sources of energy, selective access to credit and agglomeration economies. The research has important implications for entrepreneurs and policy intervention.

WHY HAVE R&D-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN JAPAN EXPERIENCED A RECENT DECLINE IN PERFORMANCE? EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA OF LISTED FIRMS IN JAPANESE R&D-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES

Previous studies show that the rate of return on research and development (R&D) capital is high. However, R&D-intensive industries in Japan have recently experienced a decline in performance. This study estimates the rate of return on R&D capital and physical capital as well as total factor productivity (TFP) to solve this puzzle. The rate of return is properly estimated applying the methods, which deal with simultaneity bias issues. After Japan entered the “lost decade”, the rate of return on R&D capital dropped significantly, while the rate on physical capital did not. This trend cannot be found by the methods without considering the issues, typically used in previous studies. The slowdown of TFP growth occurs coincidentally with a declining rate of return on R&D capital, which suggests the importance of innovations that enable effective use of R&D capital. Considering the trends, the declining rate of return on R&D capital along with the slowdown of TFP growth are the main causes of the low performance of recent R&D-intensive industries. The results of this paper also offer suggestions on economic policies and growth strategies.

The value of air quality and crime in Chile: a hedonic wage approach

ABSTRACTWe estimate the implicit prices of the crime rate and airborne pollution in Chile, using spatially compensating price differentials in the housing and labor markets. We evaluate empirically the impact of different estimation strategies for the wage and rent equations, on the economic value of these two amenities. The results show that increments in the crime rate or in air pollution have a negative impact on welfare and that the estimated welfare measures and their variances are sensitive to selection bias, endogenous amenities and clustering effects. In contrast, the welfare measures do not seem to be very sensitive to the simultaneity bias.