An empirical example of analysis using a two-stage modeling approach: within-subject association of outdoor context and physical activity predicts future daily physical activity levels

People differ from each other to the extent to which momentary factors, such as context, mood, and cognitions, influence momentary health behaviors. However, statistical models to date are limited in their ability to test whether the association between two momentary variables (i.e., subject-level slopes) predicts a subject-level outcome. This study demonstrates a novel two-stage statistical modeling strategy that is capable of testing whether subject-level slopes between two momentary variables predict subject-level outcomes. An empirical case study application is presented to examine whether there are differences in momentary moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) levels between the outdoor and indoor context in adults and whether these momentary differences predict mean daily MVPA levels 6 months later. One hundred and eight adults from a multiwave longitudinal study provided 4 days of ecological momentary assessment (during baseline) and accelerometry data (both at baseline and 6 month follow-up). Multilevel data were analyzed using an open-source program (MixWILD) to test whether momentary strength between outdoor context and MVPA during baseline was associated with average daily MVPA levels measured 6 months later. During baseline, momentary MVPA levels were higher in outdoor contexts as compared to indoor contexts (b = 0.07, p < .001). Participants who had more momentary MVPA when outdoors (vs. indoors) during baseline (i.e., a greater subject-level slope) had higher daily MVPA at the 6 month follow-up (b = 0.09, p < .05). This empirical example shows that the subject-level momentary association between specific context (i.e., outdoors) and health behavior (i.e., physical activity) may contribute to overall engagement in that behavior in the future. The demonstrated two-stage modeling approach has extensive applications in behavioral medicine to analyze intensive longitudinal data collected from wearable sensors and mobile devices.

An algorithm to fit conditional tail expectation regression models for vehicle excess speed in driving data

Marketers are faced with the daunting challenge of identifying insights anddelivering the right combination of online and offline tactics to engageconsumers at various stages along the consumer journey. In this paper, weinvestigate the effects of retargeting in a multichannel environment. Using athree-stage modeling approach, we find retargeting is an effective advertisingactivity to influence purchase incidence, but only when combined with otherspecific marketing activities. While catalogs and emails have positivesynergies with retargeting, website visits and retargeting have a negativesynergy on a consumer’s decision to make a purchase. One possibleexplanation to the negative synergistic effect is that consumers may findretargeting obtrusive when browsing online, whereas it may serve as awelcome reminder when, combined with emails or catalogs. Rather thannudging consumers along the consumer journey some combinations ofadvertising activities may actually deter customers from engaging with a firm.

A Dual-Stage Modeling and Optimization Framework for Wayside Energy Storage in Electric Rail Transit Systems

In this paper, a dual-stage modeling and optimization framework has been developed to obtain an optimal combination and size of wayside energy storage systems (WESSs) for application in DC rail transportation. Energy storage technologies may consist of a standalone battery, a standalone supercapacitor, a standalone flywheel, or a combination of these. Results from the dual-stage modeling and optimization process have been utilized for deducing an application-specific composition of type and size of the WESSs. These applications consist of different percentages of energy saving due to regenerative braking, voltage regulation, peak demand reduction, estimated payback period, and system resiliency. In the first stage, sizes of the ESSs have been estimated using developed detailed mathematical models, and optimized using the Genetic Algorithm (GA). In the second stage, the respective sizes of ESSs are simulated by developing an all-inclusive model of the transit system, ESS and ESS management system (EMS) in MATLAB/Simulink. The mathematical modeling provides initial recommendations for the sizes from a large search space. However, the dynamic simulation contributes to the optimization by highlighting the transit system constraints and practical limitations of ESSs, which impose bounds on the maximum energy that can be captured from decelerating trains.