Quantification of the Effects of Droughts on Daily Mortality in Spain at Different Timescales at Regional and National Levels: A Meta-Analysis

A performance assessment of two different indices (the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) for monitoring short-term and short–medium-term drought impacts on daily specific-cause mortality in Spain was conducted. To achieve a comprehensive, nationwide view, a meta-analysis was performed using a combination of provincial relative risks (RRs). Moreover, the subdivisions of Spain based on administrative, climatic, and demographic criteria to obtain the measures of combined risks were also taken into account. The results of the SPEI and SPI calculated at the same timescale were similar. Both showed that longer drought events produced greater RR values, for respiratory mortality. However, at the local administrative level, Galicia, Castilla-y-Leon, and Extremadura showed the greatest risk of daily mortality associated with drought episodes, with Andalucía, País Vasco, and other communities being notably impacted. Based on climatic regionalization, Northwest, Central, and Southern Spain were the regions most affected by different drought conditions for all analyzed causes of daily mortality, while the Mediterranean coastal region was less affected. Demographically, the regions with the highest proportion of people aged 65 years of age and over reflected the greatest risk of daily natural, circulatory, and respiratory mortality associated with drought episodes.

Climatic regionalization of wine grapes in the Hengduan Mountain region of China

The Hengduan Mountain region of China is one of the world's highest altitude and lowest latitude wine grape cultivation areas. This study screened the existing regional indexes; the active accumulated temperature (AAT) for grapes in the growing season was chosen as the heat index, and the dryness index (DI) in the growing season was chosen as the water index for climatic regionalization. An analysis of 90-meter resolution digital elevation model (DEM) data and the corresponding slope degree and direction for the Hengduan Mountain region in the range of 97°E-103°E, 27°N-33°N, as well as daily meteorological data over 30 years (1981-2010) from 53 stations in the study region, were used to establish the AAT and DI models for the northern area of the Hengduan Mountains. According to the multiple stepwise regression method, the interaction terms among different geographical and topographic factors were considered. In addition, the residual errors were interpolated and corrected based on the modeling, and this approach further improved the simulation accuracy of meteorological factors. A regional climatic map of wine grapes was produced according to these results. The model was used to calculate the suitable altitude range for wine grape cultivation in different regions of the Hengduan Mountains. The study shows that the distribution of suitable wine grape cultivation areas in the northern part of the mountain range generally mimics distribution of dry warm and dry hot valleys. The accuracy of the results was confirmed based on the existing locations of vineyards in the Hengduan Mountain region.

Discrepancy in climatic zoning of the current soil productivity evaluation system

Pedologic-ecological estimation in the Czech Republic (Central Europe) means determination of land agronomic productivity and its economical pricing and is expressed as a five position numeral code and mapped as iso-lines. The first position of the code is the climatic region representing approximately the same conditions for agricultural plant growth and development. This climatic regionalization was based on the climatic data from 1901–1950. Currently, there is the need to update their existing zoning due to the technological progress of measurement and development of climate models including estimation of future climate. The aim of the paper is (i) to apply actual climatic data to climatic regionalization and (ii) to estimate what climatic conditions are relevant for actually valid climatic regions. The original methodology currently enables us to unequivocally classify only 17% of the entire territory of the Czech Republic (and 18% of Czech agricultural land). A substantial part of the territory does not fit neatly into individual climatic regions. Subsequently the actually valid ranges of climatic characteristics of individual climatic regions were determined. The GIS layers of individual climatic variables computed with data from 1961–2010 were one by one covered by GIS layers of individual climatic regions based on data from 1901–1950. Interval ranges of climatic region variables determined in this way are valid for the period 1961–2010. The upper limit of air temperature sum above 10 °C and annual air temperature in most of the climatic regions was significantly shifted up in 1961–2010. An increase in precipitation is noticeable in wet climatic regions. Moisture certainty in vegetation season and probability of dry vegetation are the most problematic in terms of Estimated Pedologic-Ecological Units (EPEU) climatic zoning. This should be taken into account when fixing the official soil price.

Is climatic regionalization in frame of estimated pedologic-ecological system actual in 21st century?

Climatic variables defining climatic regions of estimated pedologic-ecological system (EPEU) were calculated based on fifty-year climatic data from 1961 to 2010. Obtained results were subsequently compared to intervals determining individual climatic regions defined by previous climatic data (1901-1950). In many agricultural intense areas sum of air temperature and mean air temperature exceeded upper limit. In terms of precipitation it is especially noticeable in the wet (higher) altitudes. Significant volatility was found for probability of dry periods from April to September. The values of the moisture certainty from April to September for the period 1961-2010 reached to several tens. In the final analysis, the only safe prediction is that the present and future are likely to be very different from the past. It is necessary to take it into account for actualization of EPEU methodology. Among the strongest arguments justifying the need of this actualization is in particular climate development since 1901, technological progress and improved measurement technology as well as automation and development of climate models coupled with simulations of complex characteristics and estimates of future climate. It is evident that the development of climate and other factors have an enormous impact on soil fertility. This should be also taken into consideration when fixing the official price. It is necessary to consider the possible replacement of the existing characteristics by more suitable (for example soil moisture balance). The findings might be summarized in few words: old climatic regions do not reflect actual climatic conditions.