Corporate social responsibility and firm default risk in the Eurozone: a market-based approach

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the default risk level of firms operating in the Eurozone and how CSR can provide insurance-like protection during financial/economic downturns.Design/methodology/approachBased on prior empirical studies and by integrating the insights of different theories, this study proposes a framework linking CSR, firm default risk and corporate financial performance to explain firms' social behavior that can trigger default risk determinants (e.g. cost of capital, leverage, sales level) directly or indirectly. The authors use a panel regression approach.FindingsThe results support the mitigating effect of CSR on firm default risk. This effect is higher during a financial crisis, suggesting that CSR could provide insurance-like protection during economic downturns. These results hold even after using an alternative risk measure. Granger causality test results strongly suggest that reverse causality is not a concern. An instrumental variable approach is proposed to deal with potential endogeneity issues.Originality/valueWhile other studies examine the CSR–firm default risk relationship in US samples, this study focuses on the Eurozone. The novelty of this work is based on its sample and how financial crises are addressed within this relationship. Insurance-like protection concerns both negative announcements and periods (e.g. financial crises, recessions). The study's results are useful for investors and risk managers who intend to manage default risk in their portfolios or firms.

Asymmetric Information and Imperfect Competition in Lending Markets

We study the effects of asymmetric information and imperfect competition in the market for small business lines of credit. We estimate a structural model of credit demand, loan use, pricing, and firm default using matched firm-bank data from Italy. We find evidence of adverse selection in the form of a positive correlation between the unobserved determinants of demand for credit and default. Our counterfactual experiments show that while increases in adverse selection increase prices and defaults on average, reducing credit supply, banks’ market power can mitigate these negative effects. (JEL D22, D82, G21, G32, L13, L25)

Firm Default Prediction: A Bayesian Model-Averaging Approach

I develop a new predictive approach using Bayesian model averaging to account for incomplete knowledge of the true model behind corporate default and bankruptcy filing. I find that uncertainty over the correct model is empirically large, with far fewer variables being significant predictors of default compared with conventional approaches. Only the ratio of total liabilities to total assets and the volatility of market returns are robust default predictors in the overall sample and individual industry groups. Model-averaged forecasts that aggregate information across models or allow for industry-specific effects substantially outperform individual models.