Impact of increasing Antarctic ice-shelf melting on Southern Ocean hydrography

Southern Ocean hydrography has undergone substantial changes in recent decades, concurrent with an increase in the rate of Antarctic ice-shelf melting (AISM). We investigate the impact of increasing AISM on hydrography through a twin numerical experiment, with and without AISM, using a global coupled sea-ice/ocean climate model. The difference between these simulations gives a qualitative understanding of the impact of increasing AISM on hydrography. It is found that increasing AISM tends to freshen the surface water, warm the intermediate and deep waters, and freshen and warm the bottom water in the Southern Ocean. Such effects are consistent with the recent observed trends, suggesting that increasing AISM is likely a significant contributor to the changes in the Southern Ocean. Our analyses indicate potential positive feedback between hydrography and AISM that would amplify the effect on both Southern Ocean hydrography and Antarctic ice-shelf loss caused by external factors such as changing Southern Hemisphere winds.

Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction

Decadal-scale climate variations over the Pacific Ocean and its surroundings are strongly related to the so-called Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) which is coherent with wintertime climate over North America and Asian monsoon, and have important impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. In a near-term climate prediction covering the period up to 2030, we require knowledge of the future state of internal variations in the climate system such as the PDO as well as the global warming signal. We perform sets of ensemble hindcast and forecast experiments using a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model to examine the predictability of internal variations on decadal timescales, in addition to the response to external forcing due to changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, volcanic activity, and solar cycle variations. Our results highlight that an initialization of the upper-ocean state using historical observations is effective for successful hindcasts of the PDO and has a great impact on future predictions. Ensemble hindcasts for the 20th century demonstrate a predictive skill in the upper-ocean temperature over almost a decade, particularly around the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension (KOE) and subtropical oceanic frontal regions where the PDO signals are observed strongest. A negative tendency of the predicted PDO phase in the coming decade will enhance the rising trend in surface air-temperature (SAT) over east Asia and over the KOE region, and suppress it along the west coasts of North and South America and over the equatorial Pacific. This suppression will contribute to a slowing down of the global-mean SAT rise.

Towards measuring the meridional overturning circulation from space

We present a step towards measuring the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), i.e. the full-depth water mass transport, in the North Atlantic using satellite data. Using the Parallel Ocean Climate Model, we simulate satellite observations of ocean bottom pressure and sea surface height (SSH) over the 20-year period from 1979–1998, and use a linear model to estimate the MOC. As much as 93.5% of the variability in the smoothed transport is thereby explained. This increases to 98% when SSH and bottom pressure are first smoothed. We present initial studies of predicting the time evolution of the MOC, with promising results. It should be stressed that this is an initial step only, and that to produce an actual working system for measuring the MOC from space would require considerable future work.