THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND INFLATION RATE IN TURKEY

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
ALPER GEDİK
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Confidence Index ◽  
The Relationship

Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns

2015 ◽  
pp. 315-328
Author(s):  
Serkan Yılmaz Kandır ◽  
Veli Akel ◽  
Murat Çetin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Confidence Index ◽  
The Relationship

In this chapter, the authors investigate the relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns in an out of sample market, namely Borsa Istanbul. The authors use the Consumer Confidence Index as an investor sentiment proxy, while utilizing BIST Second National Index as a measure of small capitalized stock returns. The sample period spans from January 2004 to May 2014. By using monthly data, the authors employ cointegration test and error–correction based Granger causality models. The authors' findings suggest that there is a long-term relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns in Borsa Istanbul. Moreover, a unidirectional causal relationship from investor sentiment to stock returns is also found.

scholarly journals WOMEN FEEL MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MEN: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM TURKISH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 146-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashi Küçükaslan ◽  
Sadullah Çelik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Confidence Index ◽  
Market Variables ◽  
The Relationship

The leading role that is attributable to economic indicators like consumer confidence has been well documented in the literature for many developed nations. Moreover, the relationship between high frequency financial market data has been a common research topic for world economies. However, there is hardly any study that attempts to search for the possible functional relationship between consumer confidence and financial market variables. This paper is a simple attempt to link these two brands of literature by focusing on the relationship between financial market variables and consumer confidence index before the global crisis has started. We have two distinctive points. First, we derive separate consumer confidence indices for men and women by employing micro‐level consumer confidence data from an emerging market (Turkish CNBC‐e consumer confidence index) for the period of January 2003 ‐ January 2008. Second, employing this data set, we do not only check for the existence of a relationship between consumer confidence and financial market variables (such as interest rates, exchange rates and stock exchange index) but also focus on the possibility of gender response. We find evidence of gender response difference as throughout the period women are more pessimistic than men‐due probably to lower levels of wealth‐and respond less to changes in exchange rates than men‐due probably to lower purchasing power. Santrauka Ekonominiu rodikliu kaip pirkejo pasitikejimo vaidmens svarba yra išsamiai pagrista daugelio išsivys‐čiusiu šaliu literatūroje. Be to, ryšys tarp aukšto finansu. rinkos svyravimo duomenu yra dažna tyrimu tema daugelyje pasaulio šaliu. Tačiau vargu ar galima būtu rasti tyrimu, kuriuose būtu bandoma surasti funkcini ryši tarp pirkejo pasitikejimo ir finansu. rinku rodikliu. Šis straipsnis ‐ tai meginimas susieti šias dvi rūšis, orientuojantis i ryši tarp finansu. rinku rodikliu ir pirkejo pasitikejimo indekso prieš prasi‐dedant pasaulinei krizei. Šiame straipsnyje pabrežti du išskirtiniai bruožai. Pirma, nustatomi atskiri mo‐teru ir vyru pasitikejimo indeksai naudojantis 2003 m. sausio men. ‐ 2008 m. sausio men. laikotarpio augančiu rinku mikrolygmens pirkejo pasitikejimo duomenimis (Turku CNBC‐e pirkejo pasitikejimo indeksas). Antra, naudojantis šia informacija tikrinamas ne tik esamas ryšys tarp pirkejo pasitikejimo ir finansu. rinku rodikliu (pavyzdžiui, palūkanu normos, valiutu kurso, akciju biržos indekso). Buvo rasta akivaizdžiu skirtumu tarp atsakymu, gautu iš skirtingu lyčiu atstovu. Visa laikotarpi moterys buvo pesi‐mistiškesnes nei vyrai, tikriausiai del žemo geroves lygio. Jos mažiau reagavo i valiutu kurso pokyčius nei vyrai del mažesnes perkamosios galios.

scholarly journals THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION RATE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN INDONESIA, 1985-2008

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Selli Nelonda
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Negative Correlation ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Total Labor Force ◽  
Wage Inflation ◽  
Total Labor ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between inflation rate and unemployment. Tradeoff between inflation and unemployment rate showed a negative correlation between unemployment and wage inflation. Using the OLS method (1985-2008), the estimates indicate that the rate of inflation does not significantly influence the level of unemployment. It can be seen from a positive inflation coefficient value and not significant. Total labor force significantly affect unemployment rates. The unemployment rate last year significant effect on the unemployment rate today. Granger causality test shows that there is no causal relationship between unemployment and inflation.

scholarly journals Assessing inflation in CR using artificial intelligence

2021 ◽  
Vol 129 ◽  
pp. 03034
Author(s):  
Marek Vochozka ◽  
Tomas Krulicky ◽  
Lenka Novotna
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Value Added ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Short Run ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Rate Development

Research background: Unemployment and inflation are among the basic macroeconomic indicators of the national economy. Both these phenomena are inextricably linked to market economy and have undisputable social and economic impacts on the population of the countries where these processes take place. The relationship between the inflation and unemployment can be expressed by means of Philips curve. Purpose: The objective of the research is to compile Philips’s curve for the years 2000-2021 and compare the resulting curve with the initial short-run Philips curve. Methods: The validity of the mutual relationship between unemployment and inflation is examined using the method of neural networks. The data on inflation and unemployment rate are available from the period of 31 January 2020 and 28 February 2021. The data on inflation were obtained from the database of the Czech Statistical Office; the data on unemployment, from the official websites of the Czech National Bank. Findings & Value added: During the period under review, unemployment rate and inflation fluctuated constantly. Currently, both variables have stabilized at around 3%. Compared the long-term trend, in the years 2008-2009, the inflation rate was higher than unemployment rate. The analysis performed shows that the actual Philips curve for the Czech Republic in the period under review does not copy the initial short-run Philips curve, which indicates that the prediction of inflation rate development cannot be based on the development of unemployment rate, and the development of inflation rate cannot be a basis for exact prediction of unemployment rate development.

scholarly journals Analysis on Sub-Prime Debt Crisis

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 02009
Author(s):  
Zidi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Subprime Mortgage ◽  
The Core ◽  
Mortgage Crisis ◽  
The Relationship

Economic crises, such as Subprime Mortgage Crisis in 2008, European Debt Crisis in 2010, and stock market disaster in 2015, have become an essential concern for people and governments. People cannot help wondering what economic crises will bring to our country and life. Why will economic crises bring about these changes? What should people do to deal with these changes? This article interprets the core economic indicators, such as GDP, Inflation, Unemployment Rate, and the mechanism of Philips Curve. Based on the results of data analysis, people will find the relationship between unemployment rate and inflation rate. Finally, role and impact of fiscal and monetary policies in economic crisis will be transparent. As a result, economists can have the optimal way of analyzing the dynamic economic growth [1].

scholarly journals Testing of the Phillips Curve in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-135
Author(s):  
Mochamad Choirul Anwar ◽  
Avi Budi Setiawan
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Export Tax ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Unemployment Problem

This study aims to determine how the results of Phillips theory testing in 34 provinces in Indonesia based on the main sectors contributing to the GRDP. The analytical method used in this study is Product Moment correlation analysis to determine the relationship between the inflation rate variable and the unemployment rate variable. The data used in this study are data on open unemployment and inflation rates taken in 34 provinces in Indonesia from 2014-2018. The results of this study indicate there is no Phillips curve pattern in 34 provinces in Indonesia. The inflation rate variable and the unemployment rate variable in 34 provinces in Indonesia based on the main sectors contributing to the GRDP have a positive but very weak relationship with a correlation value of 0.1089. The problem of price volatility (inflation) contributes, although not significantly to the emergence of the unemployment problem. Government policies are needed to control inflation and reduce unemployment rates such as fuel subsidies, corporate tax reductions, export tax reductions, and control of raw material prices considering that the results of this study indicate that rising inflation will be followed by an increase in unemployment.

scholarly journals KAJIAN ANOMALI PEREKONOMIAN MAKRO KOTA MAGELANG

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 148-153
Author(s):  
Nur Maizunati ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Economic Theories ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

The economic dynamics in Magelang City, although quite impressive in the last five years, but have had anomalies in several years. The interrelated achievement of several macro indicators does not show synergy with various existing economic theories. This study examines the economic anomaly that occurred in Magelang City through the analysis of the relationship of several macro indicators with OLS regression and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The research results show that there is a negative relationship between the inflation variable and the unemployment rate on GDP. It was also found that GDP had significant granger causality over unemployment rate. Unemployment rate showed a negative response since the first period due to changes in the inflation rate. But in the 5th to the 10th years its fluctuations began to shrink. Meanwhile the GDP responded negatively to the dynamics of inflation with fluctuations that widened throughout the year. The determination of the cut-off point for inflation figures needs to be carefully formulated so that all related indicators can move dynamically but harmoniously.

scholarly journals Terrorism and Macroeconomy: A Review of The Eurasian Economies

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Özge Korkmaz
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Export Rate ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between terrorist incidents, inflation rate, unemployment rate, per capita GDP, export rate and import rate for Eurasian countries Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Belarus for the period 1994-2015. For this purpose, the Westerlund cointegration analysis and have been using the causality test introduced by Holtz-Eakin, Newey and Rosen. As a result of the analyzes, it is observed that there is a long-term relationship between the export rate and the terrorist incidents and the export rate is the reason for the terrorist incidents. At the same time, it has been found that there is no long-term interaction and causal link between all other variables and terrorist incidents considered in the study.

scholarly journals WOMEN FEEL MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MEN: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM TURKISH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 146-171
Author(s):  
Ashi Küçükaslan ◽  
Sadullah Çelik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Confidence Index ◽  
Market Variables ◽  
The Relationship

The leading role that is attributable to economic indicators like consumer confidence has been well documented in the literature for many developed nations. Moreover, the relationship between high frequency financial market data has been a common research topic for world economies. However, there is hardly any study that attempts to search for the possible functional relationship between consumer confidence and financial market variables. This paper is a simple attempt to link these two brands of literature by focusing on the relationship between financial market variables and consumer confidence index before the global crisis has started. We have two distinctive points. First, we derive separate consumer confidence indices for men and women by employing micro‐level consumer confidence data from an emerging market (Turkish CNBC‐e consumer confidence index) for the period of January 2003 ‐ January 2008. Second, employing this data set, we do not only check for the existence of a relationship between consumer confidence and financial market variables (such as interest rates, exchange rates and stock exchange index) but also focus on the possibility of gender response. We find evidence of gender response difference as throughout the period women are more pessimistic than men‐due probably to lower levels of wealth‐and respond less to changes in exchange rates than men‐due probably to lower purchasing power. Santrauka Ekonominiu rodikliu kaip pirkejo pasitikejimo vaidmens svarba yra išsamiai pagrista daugelio išsivys‐čiusiu šaliu literatūroje. Be to, ryšys tarp aukšto finansu. rinkos svyravimo duomenu yra dažna tyrimu tema daugelyje pasaulio šaliu. Tačiau vargu ar galima būtu rasti tyrimu, kuriuose būtu bandoma surasti funkcini ryši tarp pirkejo pasitikejimo ir finansu. rinku rodikliu. Šis straipsnis ‐ tai meginimas susieti šias dvi rūšis, orientuojantis i ryši tarp finansu. rinku rodikliu ir pirkejo pasitikejimo indekso prieš prasi‐dedant pasaulinei krizei. Šiame straipsnyje pabrežti du išskirtiniai bruožai. Pirma, nustatomi atskiri mo‐teru ir vyru pasitikejimo indeksai naudojantis 2003 m. sausio men. ‐ 2008 m. sausio men. laikotarpio augančiu rinku mikrolygmens pirkejo pasitikejimo duomenimis (Turku CNBC‐e pirkejo pasitikejimo indeksas). Antra, naudojantis šia informacija tikrinamas ne tik esamas ryšys tarp pirkejo pasitikejimo ir finansu. rinku rodikliu (pavyzdžiui, palūkanu normos, valiutu kurso, akciju biržos indekso). Buvo rasta akivaizdžiu skirtumu tarp atsakymu, gautu iš skirtingu lyčiu atstovu. Visa laikotarpi moterys buvo pesi‐mistiškesnes nei vyrai, tikriausiai del žemo geroves lygio. Jos mažiau reagavo i valiutu kurso pokyčius nei vyrai del mažesnes perkamosios galios.

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