scholarly journals Terrorism and Macroeconomy: A Review of The Eurasian Economies

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Özge Korkmaz
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Export Rate ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between terrorist incidents, inflation rate, unemployment rate, per capita GDP, export rate and import rate for Eurasian countries Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Belarus for the period 1994-2015. For this purpose, the Westerlund cointegration analysis and have been using the causality test introduced by Holtz-Eakin, Newey and Rosen. As a result of the analyzes, it is observed that there is a long-term relationship between the export rate and the terrorist incidents and the export rate is the reason for the terrorist incidents. At the same time, it has been found that there is no long-term interaction and causal link between all other variables and terrorist incidents considered in the study.

Relationship Between the Use of Renewable Energy, Carbon Dioxide Emission, and Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
pp. 339-355
Author(s):  
Ferhat Özbay ◽  
Ceren Pehlivan
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emission ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

The study aims to examine the relationship between the use of renewable energy, CO2, and GDP per capita. In this study that has been carried out on Turkey for the period 1990-2018, time series analysis is used. The long-term relationship between variables is revealed by the cointegration test. The periodic changes of the variables are examined by the variance decomposition and impulse-response function. Finally, with the causality test, the relationship between variables and the direction of this relationship are revealed. Findings show that there is a cointegrated relationship between the variables.. According to variance decomposition in the period of 10 lags, the renewable energy variance is 96% due to itself, 2.74% to CO2, and 0.50% to shocks in per capita GDP. As for impact-response functions, while the response of renewable energy to the GDP per capita variable is negative in the first two periods, it increase slightly in the following period, and after the sixth period, the effect of the shock diminished.

scholarly journals Economic growth and under-five malaria mortality in Tanzania mainland: from correlation analysis to causality

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mwoya Byaro ◽  
Abeli Kinyondo ◽  
Patrick Musonda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Correlation Relationship ◽  
Under Five ◽  
Malaria Mortality ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

This paper establishes empirical evidence related with correlation and causality between economic growth (as measured by GDP per capita) and under-five malaria mortality in Tanzania Mainland. The goal is to contribute knowledge on the existing relationship between economic growth and under-five malaria mortality. Correlation and scatter regression analysis plot were employed to find out the relationship among the (GDP per Capita), Insecticides Treated Nets (ITNs) distributed, Human Resources (physicians and nurses) and under-five malaria mortality from the year 2004 to 2015. Moreover, Granger Causality test was applied to test the causal link between the economic growth and under-five malaria Mortality. The economic growth (as measured by GDP per Capita) and number of ITNs distributed under various malaria campaigns have significant unidirectional causality to under-five malaria mortality while there is no causality evidence between human resource for health (physicians and nurses) and under-five malaria mortality despite the observed correlation relationship. Since economic growth and ITNs have unidirectional causal link with under-five malaria mortality, it implies that any changes in GDP per Capita and ITNs will change under-five malaria mortality. The researchers and policy makers need to gather more evidence on ITNs and economic growth to assess the risk of under-five malaria mortality to inform decision making.

scholarly journals Tourism and Poverty Reduction in Mexico: An ARDL Cointegration Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Garza-Rodriguez
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Relationship

The objective of this paper was to investigate, with respect to the case of Mexico, the relationship between international tourism and the magnitude of poverty during the period of 1980–2017, through the use of an autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) cointegration model with a structural break. The econometric results obtained in this paper indicate that there is a long-term relationship between international tourism and the reduction of poverty. It was found that for every 1% increase in international tourism, household consumption per capita increases 0.46% (and, therefore, poverty decreases). In the short term, it was found that a 1% increase in international tourism leads to a 0.11 % increase in household consumption per capita (a decrease in poverty). The coefficient of the error correction model indicates that 23.9% of any movement into disequilibrium is corrected within one year. To corroborate these results, a Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test was carried out, indicating a unidirectional causality relationship from international tourism towards the reduction of poverty.

scholarly journals THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION RATE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN INDONESIA, 1985-2008

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Selli Nelonda
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Negative Correlation ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Total Labor Force ◽  
Wage Inflation ◽  
Total Labor ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between inflation rate and unemployment. Tradeoff between inflation and unemployment rate showed a negative correlation between unemployment and wage inflation. Using the OLS method (1985-2008), the estimates indicate that the rate of inflation does not significantly influence the level of unemployment. It can be seen from a positive inflation coefficient value and not significant. Total labor force significantly affect unemployment rates. The unemployment rate last year significant effect on the unemployment rate today. Granger causality test shows that there is no causal relationship between unemployment and inflation.

scholarly journals EVALUATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS AND EURO AND USD EXCHANGE RATES: THE CASE OF TURKEY

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 1113-1130
Author(s):  
Turgay MÜNYAS
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Stationarity Tests ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship between Turkey's Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums and the USD and Euro exchange rates. In order to measure this relationship, time series analyses were used for the period January 3rd, 2005 to December 31st, 2019. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests were performed for stationarity tests. Then, Johansen cointegration analysis was used to determine long-term relationships. The vector error correction model was used to determine short-term relationships, and the Granger causality test was used to determine causality directions. CDS was used as the dependent variable, and the USD and EURO exchange rates were used as the independent variables. As a result of the study, it was found that the USD rate and EURO rate variables have a long-term relationship with CDS. CDS increases by 38.8% when the USD rate increases by 1%, and CDS increases by 24.2% when the Euro rate increases by 1%. When we look at the coefficient values, it is seen that the effect of the USD rate on CDS is higher compared to that of the Euro rate. In addition, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between the variables.

scholarly journals Assessing inflation in CR using artificial intelligence

2021 ◽  
Vol 129 ◽  
pp. 03034
Author(s):  
Marek Vochozka ◽  
Tomas Krulicky ◽  
Lenka Novotna
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Value Added ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Short Run ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Rate Development

Research background: Unemployment and inflation are among the basic macroeconomic indicators of the national economy. Both these phenomena are inextricably linked to market economy and have undisputable social and economic impacts on the population of the countries where these processes take place. The relationship between the inflation and unemployment can be expressed by means of Philips curve. Purpose: The objective of the research is to compile Philips’s curve for the years 2000-2021 and compare the resulting curve with the initial short-run Philips curve. Methods: The validity of the mutual relationship between unemployment and inflation is examined using the method of neural networks. The data on inflation and unemployment rate are available from the period of 31 January 2020 and 28 February 2021. The data on inflation were obtained from the database of the Czech Statistical Office; the data on unemployment, from the official websites of the Czech National Bank. Findings & Value added: During the period under review, unemployment rate and inflation fluctuated constantly. Currently, both variables have stabilized at around 3%. Compared the long-term trend, in the years 2008-2009, the inflation rate was higher than unemployment rate. The analysis performed shows that the actual Philips curve for the Czech Republic in the period under review does not copy the initial short-run Philips curve, which indicates that the prediction of inflation rate development cannot be based on the development of unemployment rate, and the development of inflation rate cannot be a basis for exact prediction of unemployment rate development.

scholarly journals A panel causality analysis of the relationship between financial development and economic growth in OECD countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 662-672
Author(s):  
Sevilay Küçüksakarya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Panel Causality ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

This study examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth. Thus, this study aims to find empirical shreds of evidence for the direction of the causality between financial development proxied by domestic credit to the private sector and per capita GDP growth by using the panel granger causality test of the Dumitrescu-Hurlin Test. For this purpose, we used a panel of 16 OECD countries from 2008 to 2019 to provide evidence of whether the supply leading hypothesis or demand following hypothesis or both holds. All econometric exercises are carried out for whole countries and high-income countries, and upper-middle-income country groups in the sample. Due to cross-sectional dependence among the sample countries, we determine the degree of integration of each variable by employing the second-generation panel unit root tests of CIPS. We continue our analysis with the panel causality test developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) to determine the direction of the causality between variables. For this purpose, we performed three sets of causality analyses. In the first one, we include all countries in the panel. We then divided the countries into two sub-groups based on the income classification and the level of financial development in these countries proxied by domestic credit to the private sector. The causality test results, including all countries in the sample, indicate that the hypothesis holds the supply leading hypothesis during the sample period. This means that even though this panel contains countries with a development level, financial development still seems to be a pre-condition for economic growth for these nations. We also obtain the same results when we include high-income countries in the sample. The study results provide compelling evidence for the relationship between economic growth and financial development since the sample includes countries with different levels of financial development with different degrees of per capita GDP growth.

Railroad Integration and Uneven Development on the European Periphery, 1870–1910

2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-289
Author(s):  
Eduard J. Alvarez-Palau ◽  
Alfonso Díez-Minguela ◽  
Jordi Martí-Henneberg
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Catching Up ◽  
Nation States ◽  
Railroad Network ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
European Periphery ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis study explores the relationship between railroad integration and regional development on the European periphery between 1870 and 1910, based on a regional data set including 291 spatial units. Railroad integration is proxied by railroad density, while per capita GDP is used as an indicator of economic development. The period under study is of particular relevance as it has been associated with the second wave of railroad construction in Europe and also coincides with the industrialization of most of the continent. Overall, we found that railroads had a significant and positive impact on the growth of per capita GDP across Europe. The magnitude of this relationship appears to be relatively modest, but the results obtained are robust with respect to a number of different specifications. From a geographical perspective, we found that railroads had a significantly greater influence on regions located in countries on the northern periphery of Europe than in other outlying areas. They also helped the economies of these areas to begin the process of catching up with the continent’s industrialized core. In contrast, the regions on the southern periphery showed lower levels of economic growth, with this exacerbating the preexisting divergence in economic development. The expansion of the railroad network in them was unable to homogenize the diffusion of economic development and tended to further benefit the regions that were already industrialized. In most of the cases, the capital effect was magnified, and this contributed to the consolidation of newly created nation-states.

Financial Inclusion and CO2 Emissions in Asia: Implications for Environmental Sustainability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahzad Hussain ◽  
Tanveer Ahmad ◽  
Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract We examine the relationship between financial inclusion and carbon emissions. For this purpose, we develop a composite indicator of financial inclusion based on a broad set of attributes through principal component analysis (PCA) for 26 countries in the Asia region. Our robust panel regression analysis reveals a significant positive long-term impact of financial inclusion on carbon emissions. The pairwise causality test reveals unidirectional long-term causality running from financial inclusion to carbon emissions. The study suggests that policy makers may design policies that integrate accessible financial systems into climate change adaptation strategies in order to neutralize the side effect of financial inclusion deteriorating environmental quality and inclusive sustainable economic growth. JEL ClassificationO16; O44, Q54

scholarly journals Food Affordability and Economic Growth

TEM Journal ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 1571-1579
Author(s):  
Ruslan Mudrak ◽  
Volodymyr Lagodiienko ◽  
Nataliia Lagodiienko ◽  
Vitalii Rybchak
Keyword(s):  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Functional Characteristic ◽  
Alcoholic Beverages ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Food Expenditures ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Food Affordability ◽  
Constant Prices

The conducted correlation-andregression analysis revealed a close inverse connection between the functional characteristic "share of the expenditures for food and non-alcoholic beverages in the structure of the total expenditures of the households" and the factorial characteristic "GDP per capita by purchasing power parity, at constant prices". The response of the share of food expenditures in the structure of the total expenditures of the households to per capita GDP growth corresponds to the law of diminishing returns. The pattern is manifested in the long-term period.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document