scholarly journals Sensitivity of four wheat simulation models to climate change

1995 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Touré ◽  
D. J. Major ◽  
C. W. Lindwall
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Continuous Rotation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Low Precipitation

Crop simulation models may be valuable in anticipating crop production under a changed climate. We compared four computer simulation models of wheat, crop estimation through resources and environment synthesis (CERES), erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC), Stewart and Sinclair, for evaluating the impact of climate change on dryland spring wheat yield for continuous rotation in southern Alberta. To a varying extent, the four models showed decreases in dryland spring wheat yields due to high temperature and low precipitation. All the models except Stewart had similar sensitivity to low precipitation; however, they showed differences to high-moisture conditions. Within the range considered, the Sinclair model was the most sensitive to temperature, followed by CERES and Stewart. Only EPIC indicated optimum temperature and precipitation levels, while CERES had the most pronounced precipitation optimum. Although the CERES, Stewart and Sinclair models have different phenology submodels, they predicted similar phenological response to a doubled CO2 climate scenario generated from the Canadian Climate Center General Circulation Model for Lethbridge, AB. Growing seasons shortened by 19 d were predicted using CERES and 18 d by using the Sinclair and Stewart models. The CERES, Stewart and Sinclair models were modified to include the effect of CO2 on radiation-use-efficiency. With current atmospheric CO2 concentration in the future climate scenario, the EPIC and Stewart models predicted significant (25%) and non-significant (3%) yield increases for dryland wheat and Sinclair and CERES predicted yield losses. Higher CO2 levels may compensate for the effect of global warming; doubling CO2 from present levels in a warmer climate scenario resulted in yield increase predictions at different amplitudes using EPIC, Stewart and CERES and a slight yield decrease with Sinclair. Key words: Sensitivity, climate change, dryland spring wheat

Comparison of five wheat simulation models In southern Alberta

1995 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Touré ◽  
D. J. Major ◽  
C. W. Lindwall
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Epic Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Long Term Experiment ◽  
The Impact

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to result in global warming which will affect crop production. Crop modelling is a useful tool for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. The objective of this study was to select an appropriate model for climate change studies. Five simulation models, EPIC, CERES, Century, Sinclair and Stewart, were assessed using data from a long-term experiment begun in 1911 on a clay loam (Dark Brown Chernozem) soil at Lethbridge, AB. Yields predicted by the five models were compared with actual spring wheat yields in continuous wheat, fallow-wheat and fallow-wheat-wheat rotations. The EPIC model gave the best simulation results over all rotations and the most accurate predictions of mean yields during droughts. It was concluded that the EPIC model had the greatest potential for assessing the impact of climate change on wheat yield. The Stewart model was the most accurate for unfertilized continuous wheat and fallow-wheat. The Sinclair model was most accurate for fertilized fallow-wheat and CERES was the most accurate model for fertilized continuous wheat. The Century model simulated average yield accurately but did not account for year-to-year variability. Key words: Global warming, crop simulation, spring wheat yields

scholarly journals Analysis of meteorological variations on wheat yield and its estimation using remotely sensed data. A case study of selected districts of Punjab Province, Pakistan (2001-14)

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafia Mumtaz ◽  
Shahbaz Baig ◽  
Iram Fatima
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
Normalised Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
The Impact

Land management for crop production is an essential human activity that supports life on Earth. The main challenge to be faced by the agriculture sector in coming years is to feed the rapidly growing population while maintaining the key resources such as soil fertility, efficient land use, and water. Climate change is also a critical factor that impacts agricultural production. Among others, a major effect of climate change is the potential alterations in the growth cycle of crops which would likely lead to a decline in the agricultural output. Due to the increasing demand for proper agricultural management, this study explores the effects of meteorological variation on wheat yield in Chakwal and Faisalabad districts of Punjab, Pakistan and used normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) as a predictor for yield estimates. For NDVI data (2001-14), the NDVI product of Moderate Resolution Imaging spectrometer (MODIS) 16-day composites data has been used. The crop area mapping has been realised by classifying the satellite data into different land use/land covers using iterative self-organising (ISO) data clustering. The land cover for the wheat crop was mapped using a crop calendar. The relation of crop yield with NDVI and the impact of meteorological parameters on wheat growth and its yield has been analysed at various development stages. A strong correlation of rainfall and temperature was found with NDVI data, which determined NDVI as a strong predictor of yield estimation. The wheat yield estimates were obtained by linearly regressing the reported crop yield against the time series of MODIS NDVI profiles. The wheat NDVI profiles have shown a parabolic pattern across the growing season, therefore parabolic least square fit (LSF) has been applied prior to linear regression. The coefficients of determination (<em>R</em><sup>2</sup>) between the reported and estimated yield was found to be 0.88 and 0.73, respectively, for Chakwal and Faisalabad. This indicates that the method is capable of providing yield estimates with competitive accuracies prior to crop harvest, which can significantly aid the policy guidance and contributes to better and timely decisions.

The Impact of Climate Change on Spring Wheat Yield in Mongolia and Its Adaptability

1996 ◽  
pp. 164-173
Author(s):  
Sh. Bayasgalan ◽  
B. Bolortsetseg ◽  
D. Dagvadorj ◽  
L. Natsagdorj
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Bioclimatic approach to assessing the potential impact of climate change on two flea beetle (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) species in Canada

2017 ◽  
Vol 149 (5) ◽  
pp. 616-627 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Olfert ◽  
R.M. Weiss ◽  
R.H. Elliott ◽  
J.J. Soroka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Insect Pests ◽  
Flea Beetle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBoth the striped flea beetle, Phyllotreta striolata (Fabricius), and crucifer flea beetle, Phyllotreta cruciferae (Goeze) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), are invasive alien species to North America. In western Canada, they are the most significant insect pests of cruciferous (Brassicaceae) crops. Climate is the one of the most dominant factors regulating the geographic distribution and population density of most insect species. Recent bioclimatic simulation models of the two flea beetle species fostered a better understanding of how the two species responded to selected climate variables. They demonstrated that selected climate variables increased population densities and geographic range of the two species. General circulation model inputs were applied in this study to assess the impact of a changing climate on the response of P. cruciferae and P. striolata populations. Model output, using the climate change scenarios, predicted that both P. cruciferae and P. striolata populations will shift north in future climates and the degree of geographic overlap between these two species will be greater than for current climate. This suggests that the two species could potentially cause economic losses over an expanded area in the future.

scholarly journals Modeling impacts of climate change on spring wheat in northern India

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-130
Author(s):  
SARITA KUMARI ◽  
S. BAIDYA ROY ◽  
P. SHARMA ◽  
A. SRIVASTAVA ◽  
V.K. SEHGAL ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Indian Agricultural Research Institute ◽  
Crop Growth ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Northern India ◽  
The Impact

This study attempts to quantitatively understand the impact of changes in meteorological drivers due to climate change on spring wheat in northern India using numerical experiments with the Simple and Universal CRop growth Simulator (SUCROS) model.The model was calibrated and evaluated for spring wheat cultivar HD2967 using observed crop and meteorological data from a field site at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi. Sensitivity studies were performed with the SUCROS model by incrementally changing the meteorological drivers to understand the underlying processes through which each meteorological driver affects spring wheat crop growth. The effect of climate change on spring wheat growth was estimated by conducting numerical experiments where the SUCROS model was driven with bias-corrected projections of future climate from six climate models for two scenarios for mid and end century. Results show that competitive/synergistic interactions between meteorological drivers lead to a slight increase in growth at the beginning of the growing season, and a strong decrease of about 50 per cent during the later stage. Apart from improving our understanding of crop growth processes, this study has also policy implications for agriculture and food security in the context of climate change.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River basin: a case study of the Nam Ou basin, Lao PDR

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Shrestha ◽  
M. S. Babel ◽  
S. Maskey ◽  
A. van Griensven ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou basin located in northern Laos. Future climate (temperature and precipitation) from four general circulation models (GCMs) that are found to perform well in the Mekong region and a regional circulation model (PRECIS) are downscaled using a delta change approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Results indicate up to 3.0 °C shift in seasonal temperature and 27% (decrease) to 41% (increase) in seasonal precipitation. The largest increase in temperature is observed in the dry season while the largest change in precipitation is observed in the wet season. In general, temperature shows increasing trends but changes in precipitation are not unidirectional and vary depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES), climate models, prediction period and season. The simulation results show that the changes in annual stream discharges are likely to range from a 17% decrease to 66% increase in the future, which will lead to predicted changes in annual sediment yield ranging from a 27% decrease to about 160% increase. Changes in intra-annual (monthly) discharge as well as sediment yield are even greater (−62 to 105% in discharge and −88 to 243% in sediment yield). A higher discharge and sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the highest relative changes are observed during the dry months. The results indicate high uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of changes of discharge as well as sediment yields due to climate change. As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in both sediment management and climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals The effect of liquid pig manure on the wheat yield, content and balance of nutrients in light-gray forest soil with light particle-size composition

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 456-466
Author(s):  
V. I. Titova ◽  
L. D. Varlamova ◽  
R. N. Rybin ◽  
T. V. Andronova
Keyword(s):  
Particle Size ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Size Composition ◽  
Light Particle ◽  
Pig Manure ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Dry Matter Content ◽  
Particle Size Composition ◽  
Positive Balance

The research has been carried out under production conditions on light gray forest soils with light particle-size composition at an area of 550 hectares where liquid pig manure (LPM) of a large pig breeding complex is annually used as an organic fertilizer at doses of 60 and 90 t/ha. The average characteristics of LPM are as follows: dry matter content is 9.5%, pH 7.7 units, nitrogen 0.22%, phosphorus 0.11%, and potassium 0.12%. The cultivated grain crops were presented by winter and spring wheat varieties, Moskovskaya 39 and Esther, respectively. It has been established that at the dose of 60 t/ha LPM for two years of research at an average a mean wheat yield was 3.0-3.75 t/ha, and at the dose of 90 t/ha - up to 4.75 t/ha. The return on investments for fertilizers in the “winter wheat → spring wheat” crop rotation link at the dose of 60 t/ha of LPM was 5.41 kg of grain per 1 kg of active substance of manure, at the dose of 90 t/ha - 4.57 kg / kg. A positive balance of nutritional elements developed on all fields, but it was better balanced when the dose of LPM was 60 t/ha and the yield was 3.0 t/ha of grain annually, or when the LPM dose was 90 t/ha and the yield of wheat was 4.75 t/ha. In this case, the estimated potassi-um supply of soil occurs at a lower rate than that of nitrogen and phosphorus. The application of 120 t of LPM during two years in total on loamy sand and of 180 t/ha on light loamy soil provided an increase in the content of mobile phosphorus compounds by 5-22 mg/kg, and potassium - by 11-30 mg/kg with a variation coefficient of 28-57% and 21-49%, respectively.

scholarly journals Spring wheat yield (Triticum aestivum L.) when applying selenium fertilizers in extreme growing conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 843 (1) ◽  
pp. 012038
Author(s):  
I I Seregina ◽  
I G Makarskaya ◽  
A S Tsygutkin ◽  
I V Kirichkova
Keyword(s):  
Triticum Aestivum ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Sodium Selenite ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Triticum Aestivum L ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Wheat Varieties ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract To study the effect of sodium Selenite application different methods on the yield of spring wheat varieties, depending on the conditions of water supply, a series of vegetation experiments in accordance with the methodology were carried out. The object of the study is spring wheat of the Zlata variety (Triticum aestivum L.). It was found that the effect of selenium on the yield of wheat of the Zlata variety depended on the method of its application and the conditions of water supply. With optimal water supply, the positive effect of selenium on the yield of spring wheat plants was revealed with both methods of applying sodium selenite. It was found that in conditions of drought, the positive effect of selenium was obtained with both methods of using sodium selenite. The greatest efficiency of selenium is obtained in foliar processing of plants. The increase in grain weight in this variant was 1.4 times. The increase in the share of the agronomic significant part of the wheat crop yield to 36% is shown, which indicates the decrease in the negative effect of drought on the formation of spring wheat yield when using foliar processing of plants.

scholarly journals A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kleoniki Demertzi ◽  
Dimitris Papadimos ◽  
Vassilis Aschonitis ◽  
Dimitris Papamichail
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Modified Model ◽  
Natural Lakes ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This study proposes a simplistic model for assessing the hydroclimatic vulnerability of lakes/reservoirs (LRs) that preserve their steady-state conditions based on regulated superficial discharge (Qd) out of the LR drainage basin. The model is a modification of the Bracht-Flyr et al. method that was initially proposed for natural lakes in closed basins with no superficial discharge outside the basin (Qd = 0) and under water-limited environmental conditions {mean annual ratio of potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus rainfall (P) greater than 1}. In the proposed modified approach, an additional Qd function is included. The modified model is applied using as a case study the Oreastiada Lake, which is located inside the Kastoria basin in Greece. Six years of observed data of P, ETo, Qd, and lake topography were used to calibrate the modified model based on the current conditions. The calibrated model was also used to assess the future lake conditions based on the future climatic projections (mean conditions of 2061-2080) derived by 19 general circulation models (GCMs) for three cases of climate change (three cases of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The modified method can be used as a diagnostic tool in water-limited environments for analyzing the superficial discharge changes of LRs under different climatic conditions and to support the design of new management strategies for mitigating the impact of climate change on (a) flooding conditions, (b) hydroelectric production, (c) irrigation/industrial/domestic use and (d) minimum ecological flows to downstream rivers.

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