Comparison of five wheat simulation models In southern Alberta

1995 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Touré ◽  
D. J. Major ◽  
C. W. Lindwall
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Epic Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Long Term Experiment ◽  
The Impact

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to result in global warming which will affect crop production. Crop modelling is a useful tool for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. The objective of this study was to select an appropriate model for climate change studies. Five simulation models, EPIC, CERES, Century, Sinclair and Stewart, were assessed using data from a long-term experiment begun in 1911 on a clay loam (Dark Brown Chernozem) soil at Lethbridge, AB. Yields predicted by the five models were compared with actual spring wheat yields in continuous wheat, fallow-wheat and fallow-wheat-wheat rotations. The EPIC model gave the best simulation results over all rotations and the most accurate predictions of mean yields during droughts. It was concluded that the EPIC model had the greatest potential for assessing the impact of climate change on wheat yield. The Stewart model was the most accurate for unfertilized continuous wheat and fallow-wheat. The Sinclair model was most accurate for fertilized fallow-wheat and CERES was the most accurate model for fertilized continuous wheat. The Century model simulated average yield accurately but did not account for year-to-year variability. Key words: Global warming, crop simulation, spring wheat yields

The Impact of Climate Change on Spring Wheat Yield in Mongolia and Its Adaptability

1996 ◽  
pp. 164-173
Author(s):  
Sh. Bayasgalan ◽  
B. Bolortsetseg ◽  
D. Dagvadorj ◽  
L. Natsagdorj
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on food security in South Africa: Current realities and challenges ahead

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tshepo S. Masipa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Food Distribution ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Food Items ◽  
The Impact

This article aims to examine the impact of climate change on food security in South Africa. For this purpose, the article adopted a desktop study approach. Previous studies, reports, surveys and policies on climate change and food (in)security. From this paper’s analysis, climate change presents a high risk to food security in sub-Saharan countries from crop production to food distribution and consumption. In light of this, it is found that climate change, particularly global warming, affects food security through food availability, accessibility, utilisation and affordability. To mitigate these risks, there is a need for an integrated policy approach to protect the arable land against global warming. The argument advanced in this article is that South Africa’s ability to adapt and protect its food items depends on the understanding of risks and the vulnerability of various food items to climate change. However, this poses a challenge in developing countries, including South Africa, because such countries have weak institutions and limited access to technology. Another concern is a wide gap between the cost of adapting and the necessary financial support from the government. There is also a need to invest in technologies that will resist risks on food systems.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of four wheat simulation models to climate change

1995 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Touré ◽  
D. J. Major ◽  
C. W. Lindwall
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Continuous Rotation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Low Precipitation

Crop simulation models may be valuable in anticipating crop production under a changed climate. We compared four computer simulation models of wheat, crop estimation through resources and environment synthesis (CERES), erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC), Stewart and Sinclair, for evaluating the impact of climate change on dryland spring wheat yield for continuous rotation in southern Alberta. To a varying extent, the four models showed decreases in dryland spring wheat yields due to high temperature and low precipitation. All the models except Stewart had similar sensitivity to low precipitation; however, they showed differences to high-moisture conditions. Within the range considered, the Sinclair model was the most sensitive to temperature, followed by CERES and Stewart. Only EPIC indicated optimum temperature and precipitation levels, while CERES had the most pronounced precipitation optimum. Although the CERES, Stewart and Sinclair models have different phenology submodels, they predicted similar phenological response to a doubled CO2 climate scenario generated from the Canadian Climate Center General Circulation Model for Lethbridge, AB. Growing seasons shortened by 19 d were predicted using CERES and 18 d by using the Sinclair and Stewart models. The CERES, Stewart and Sinclair models were modified to include the effect of CO2 on radiation-use-efficiency. With current atmospheric CO2 concentration in the future climate scenario, the EPIC and Stewart models predicted significant (25%) and non-significant (3%) yield increases for dryland wheat and Sinclair and CERES predicted yield losses. Higher CO2 levels may compensate for the effect of global warming; doubling CO2 from present levels in a warmer climate scenario resulted in yield increase predictions at different amplitudes using EPIC, Stewart and CERES and a slight yield decrease with Sinclair. Key words: Sensitivity, climate change, dryland spring wheat

scholarly journals Assessment Model Impact of Climate Change on Potential Production for Food and Energy Needs for the Coastal Areas of Bengkulu, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-169
Author(s):  
Eko Sumartono ◽  
Gita Mulyasari ◽  
Ketut Sukiyono
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Availability ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Appropriate Technology ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Food Reserves ◽  
The Impact

Bengkulu is said to be the center of the world's climate because of the influence of water conditions and the topography of the area where the rain cloud formation starts. The waters in Bengkulu Province become a meeting place for four ocean currents which eventually become an area where the evaporation process of forming rain clouds becomes the rainy or dry season and affects the world climate. Method to analyze descriptively, shows oldeman Classification and satellite rainfall estimation data is added. In relation to the Analysis of Potential Food Availability for the Coastal Areas of Bengkulu Province uses a quantifiable descriptive analysis method based. The results show that most are included in the Oldeman A1 climate zone, which means it is suitable for continuous rice but less production due to generally low radiation intensity throughout the year. In an effort to reduce or eliminate the impact of climate change on food crop production, it is necessary to suggest crop diversification, crop rotation, and the application of production enhancement technologies. Strategies in building food availability as a result of climate change are: First, develop food supplies originating from regional production and food reserves on a provincial scale. Second, Empowering small-scale food businesses which are the dominant characteristics of the agricultural economy, especially lowland rice and horticultural crops. Third, Increase technology dissemination and increase the capacity of farmers in adopting appropriate technology to increase crop productivity and business efficiency. Four, Promote the reduction of food loss through the use of food handling, processing and distribution technologies. 

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on the potato crop and biodiversity in its center of origin

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Quiroz ◽  
David A. Ramírez ◽  
Jürgen Kroschel ◽  
Jorge Andrade-Piedra ◽  
Carolina Barreda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Potato Crop ◽  
Insect Pest ◽  
Tuber Initiation ◽  
Crop Modeling ◽  
Andean Region ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The Andean region is the most important center of potato diversity in the world. The global warming trend which has taken place since the 1950s, that is 2-3 times the reported global warming and the continuous presence of extreme events makes this region a live laboratory to study the impact of climate change. In this review, we first present the current knowledge on climate change in the Andes, as compared to changes in other mountain areas, and the globe in general. Then, the review describes the ecophysiological strategies to cope and adapt to changes in atmospheric CO2 levels, temperature and soil water availability. As climate change also has a significant effect on the magnitude and frequency of the incidence of pests and diseases, the current knowledge of the dynamics of vectors in the Andean region is discussed. The use of modeling techniques to describe changes in the range expansion and number of insect pest generations per year as affected by increases in temperature is also presented. Finally, the review deals with the use of crop modeling to analyze the likely impact of projected climate scenarios on potato yield and tuber initiation.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change Using Trend Analysis of Rainfall, RRL AWBM Toolkit, Synthetic and Arbitrary Scenarios

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Ayushi Trivedi ◽  
S. K. Pyasi ◽  
R. V. Galkate
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
The Impact

The integrated approach for assessment of the impact of climate change is important, as climate impacts are likely to transcend sectoral or regional boundaries, with impacts of change in hydrological and geological behaviour of one sector affecting the behaviour of another or simultaneously any other sector, or region, to respond. Modelling is often used by hydrologists in the analysis of empirical data to gain insights into the underlying dynamics of simulated runoff and its trend changing pattern. Thus, these models extrapolate from a climate-related (usually temperature-related) relationship derived by observations and experiment. The climate changes have adverse and drastic impacts on climate-sensitive sectors such as water resources, agriculture and ultimately livelihood and economy of the people. Thus consequently increase or decrease in temperature, rainfall and other climatic parameters due to climate change affect the river discharge, flood, reservoir storages, groundwater levels, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, crop production, sea levels etc. Keeping this insight patches of major changes from the whole study area were selected to assess the intensity of rainfall, discharge and the incremental impact of rainfall. The temporal analysis in selected patches revealed that increment and decrement in the study area simultaneously affect the runoff by the same proportion. The trend generated through the Mann-Kendall test not only helped in assessing the impact of climate change but also identified its causative actors. The results of the study can effectively be utilized for setting priorities of hydrological behaviour in different geographical regions at various scales.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on fish infectious diseases (a review)

2020 ◽  
pp. 78-110
Author(s):  
Yu. Rud ◽  
◽  
O. Zaloilo ◽  
L. Buchatsky ◽  
I. Hrytsyniak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Fish Farms ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Key Words Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Climate ◽  
Increasing Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Purpose. As the climate change impacts freshwater and marine ecosystems, and rising ocean temperatures and acidification continue to this moment, our aim was to analyze the literature and summarize information on the development of fish infectious diseases in the light of global warming. Findings. Even a slight increase in temperature affects the life cycle, physiology, behavior, distribution and structure of populations of aquatic bioresources, especially fish. Recent studies show that some infectious diseases of fish spread much faster with increasing temperature. Climate change contributes to pathogens spread in both marine and freshwater areas. In particular, rising water temperatures can expand the range of diseases. Aquatic bioresources have high cumulative mortality from infectious diseases, and pathogens are rapidly progressing, and these phenomena may be powered by climate change, leading to the geographical spread of virulent pathogens to fisheries and aquaculture facilities, threatening much of global production and food security. The article presents data on the impact of climate change and global warming on aquaculture and fisheries. The list of the main pathogens of fish of various etiology in Ukraine, including viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases is presented. The impact of infectious agents on modern aquaculture is described and the main ideas about the possible long-term consequences of climate change for fish farms are given. Practical Value. The review may be useful for specialists in veterinary medicine, epizootology and ichthyopathology. Key words: climate change, infectious diseases of fish, pathogenesis.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of climate change on maize yield in Victoria Nile Sub-basin, Uganda

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joash Bwambale ◽  
Khaldoon A. Mourad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Aquacrop Model ◽  
Supplementary Irrigation ◽  
The Impact

AbstractAgriculture is the backbone of Uganda’s economy, with about 24.9% contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) as per the Uganda National Household Survey 2016/17. Agricultural productivity (yield per hectare) is still low due to the high dependence on rain-fed subsistence farming. Climate change is expected to further reduce the yield per hectare. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on maize yield in the Victoria Nile Sub-basin using the AquaCrop model. It further assesses the possible adaptation measures to climate change. The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2–Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) data downloaded from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) was used to simulate maize yield in the near future (2021–2040), mid future (2041–2070) and late future (2071–2099). Results show that maize yield is likely to reduce by as high as 1–10%, 2–42% and 1–39% in the near, mid and late futures, respectively, depending on the agro-ecological zone. This decline in maize yield can have a significant impact on regional food security as well as socio-economic well-being since maize is a staple crop. The study also shows that improving soil fertility has no significant impact on maize yield under climate change. However, a combined application of supplementary irrigation and shifting the planting dates is a promising strategy to maintain food security and socio-economic development. This study presents important findings and adaptation strategies that policymakers and other stakeholders such as farmers can implement to abate the effects of climate change on crop production.

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