Bioclimatic approach to assessing the potential impact of climate change on two flea beetle (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) species in Canada

2017 ◽  
Vol 149 (5) ◽  
pp. 616-627 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Olfert ◽  
R.M. Weiss ◽  
R.H. Elliott ◽  
J.J. Soroka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Insect Pests ◽  
Flea Beetle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBoth the striped flea beetle, Phyllotreta striolata (Fabricius), and crucifer flea beetle, Phyllotreta cruciferae (Goeze) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), are invasive alien species to North America. In western Canada, they are the most significant insect pests of cruciferous (Brassicaceae) crops. Climate is the one of the most dominant factors regulating the geographic distribution and population density of most insect species. Recent bioclimatic simulation models of the two flea beetle species fostered a better understanding of how the two species responded to selected climate variables. They demonstrated that selected climate variables increased population densities and geographic range of the two species. General circulation model inputs were applied in this study to assess the impact of a changing climate on the response of P. cruciferae and P. striolata populations. Model output, using the climate change scenarios, predicted that both P. cruciferae and P. striolata populations will shift north in future climates and the degree of geographic overlap between these two species will be greater than for current climate. This suggests that the two species could potentially cause economic losses over an expanded area in the future.

scholarly journals Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Future Runoff of River Satluj

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-21
Author(s):  
Narayan P Gautam ◽  
Manohar Arora ◽  
N.K. Goel ◽  
A.R.S. Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Climatic Condition ◽  
The Impact

Climate change has been emerging as one of the challenges in the global environment. Information of predicted climatic changes in basin scale is highly useful to know the future climatic condition in the basin that ultimately becomes helpful to carry out planning and management of the water resources available in the basin. Climatic scenario is a plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change. This study based on statistical downscaling, provide good example focusing on predicting the rainfall and runoff patterns, using the coarse general circulation model (GCM) outputs. The outputs of the GCMs are utilized to study the impact of climate change on water resources. The present study has been taken up to identify the climate change scenarios for Satluj river basin, India.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 8(1) p.10-21

scholarly journals Application of LARS - WG downscaling model for building climate change scenarios in the Srepok watershed

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-122
Author(s):  
Khoi Nguyen Dao ◽  
Nhung Thi Hong Nguyen ◽  
Canh Thanh Truong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

There are statistical downscaling methods such as: SDSM, LARS-WG, WGEN…, used to convert information on climate variables from the simulation results of General Circulation Model (GCM) to build climate change scenarios for local region. In this study, we used the LARS-WG model and HadCM3 GCM for two emission scenarios: B1 (low emission scenario) and A1B (medium emission scenario) to generate future scenarios for temperature and precipitation at meteorological stations and rain gauges in the Srepok watershed. The LARS-WG model was calibrated and validated against observed climate data for the period 1980-2009, and the calibrated LARS-WG was then used to generate future climate variables for the 2020s (2011-2030), 2055s (2046-2065), and 2090s (2080-2099). The climate change scenarios suggested that the climate in the study area will become warmer and drier in the future. The results obtained in this study could be useful for policy makers in planning climate change adaptation strategies for the study area.

Impacts and uncertainties of climate change on streamflow of the Johor River Basin, Malaysia using a CMIP5 General Circulation Model ensemble

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 676-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mou Leong Tan ◽  
Darren L. Ficklin ◽  
Ab Latif Ibrahim ◽  
Zulkifli Yusop
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) on streamflow in the Johor River Basin, Malaysia was assessed. Eighteen GCMs were evaluated, and the six that adequately simulated historical climate were selected for an ensemble of GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 2.6 (low emissions), 4.5 (moderate emissions) and 8.5 (high emissions)) for three future time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) as inputs into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. We also quantified the uncertainties associated with GCM structure, greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), and prescribed increases of global temperature (1–6 °C) through streamflow changes. The SWAT model simulated historical monthly streamflow well, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.66 for calibration and 0.62 for validation. Under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, the results indicate that annual precipitation changes of 1.01 to 8.88% and annual temperature of 0.60–3.21 °C will lead to a projected annual streamflow ranging from 0.91 to 12.95% compared to the historical period. The study indicates multiple climate change scenarios are important for a robust hydrological impact assessment.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River basin: a case study of the Nam Ou basin, Lao PDR

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Shrestha ◽  
M. S. Babel ◽  
S. Maskey ◽  
A. van Griensven ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou basin located in northern Laos. Future climate (temperature and precipitation) from four general circulation models (GCMs) that are found to perform well in the Mekong region and a regional circulation model (PRECIS) are downscaled using a delta change approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Results indicate up to 3.0 °C shift in seasonal temperature and 27% (decrease) to 41% (increase) in seasonal precipitation. The largest increase in temperature is observed in the dry season while the largest change in precipitation is observed in the wet season. In general, temperature shows increasing trends but changes in precipitation are not unidirectional and vary depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES), climate models, prediction period and season. The simulation results show that the changes in annual stream discharges are likely to range from a 17% decrease to 66% increase in the future, which will lead to predicted changes in annual sediment yield ranging from a 27% decrease to about 160% increase. Changes in intra-annual (monthly) discharge as well as sediment yield are even greater (−62 to 105% in discharge and −88 to 243% in sediment yield). A higher discharge and sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the highest relative changes are observed during the dry months. The results indicate high uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of changes of discharge as well as sediment yields due to climate change. As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in both sediment management and climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Cotton Yield using Cropsyst and Regression Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 1433-1451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pantazis Georgiou ◽  
Panagiota Koukouli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Planting Date ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Cotton Yield ◽  
Cotton Production

The regional as well as the international crop production is expected to be influenced by climate change. This study describes an assessment of simulated potential cotton yield using CropSyst, a cropping systems simulation model, in Northern Greece. CropSyst was used under the General Circulation Model CGCM3.1/T63 of the climate change scenario SRES B1 for time periods of climate change 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 for two planting dates. Additionally, an appraisal of the relationship between climate variables, potential evapotranspiration and cotton yield was done based on regression models. Multiple linear regression models based on climate variables and potential evapotranspiration could be used as a simple tool for the prediction of crop yield changes in response to climate change in the future. The CropSyst simulation under SRES B1, resulted in an increase by 6% for the period 2020-2050 and a decrease by about 15% in cotton yield for 2070-2100. For the earlier planting date a higher increase and a slighter reduction was observed in cotton yield for 2020-2050 and 2070-2100, respectively. The results indicate that alteration of crop management practices, such as changing the planting date could be used as potential adaptation measures to address the impacts of climate change on cotton production.

Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Tadashi Suetsugi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

scholarly journals Impact of GCM structure uncertainty on hydrological processes in an arid area of China

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 893-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonghuan Fang ◽  
Jing Yang ◽  
Yaning Chen ◽  
Zhi Li ◽  
Philippe De Maeyer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Structural Uncertainty ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Quantifying the uncertainty sources in assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes is helpful for local water management decision-making. This paper investigated the impact of the general circulation model (GCM) structural uncertainty on hydrological processes in the Kaidu River Basin. Outputs of 21 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), representing future climate change under uncertainty, were first bias-corrected using four precipitation and three temperature methods and then used to force a well-calibrated hydrological model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) in the study area. Results show that the precipitation will increase by 3.1%–18% and 7.0%–22.5%, the temperature will increase by 2.0 °C–3.3 °C and 4.2 °C–5.5 °C and the streamflow will change by −26% to 3.4% and −38% to −7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Timing of snowmelt will shift forward by approximately 1–2 months for both scenarios. Compared to RCPs and bias correction methods, GCM structural uncertainty contributes most to streamflow uncertainty based on the standard deviation method (55.3%) while it is dominant based on the analysis of variance approach (94.1%).

scholarly journals Climate change impact assessment as function of model inaccuracy

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 2875-2899
Author(s):  
P. Droogers ◽  
A. van Loon ◽  
W. Immerzeel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Climate Change Impact Assessment ◽  
Scenario Model ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. More extreme climate change scenarios and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses.

Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation under the Climate Change Scenarios

2016 ◽  
pp. 465-491
Author(s):  
Umut Okkan ◽  
Gul Inan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Relevance Vector Machine ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

This study aims to discuss the potentials of machine learning methods such as artificial neural network (ANN), least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), and relevance vector machine (RVM) in downscaling of simulations of a general circulation model (GCM) for monthly temperature and precipitation of the Demirkopru Dam located in the Aegean region of Turkey. The predictors are obtained from ERA-Interim re-analysis data. The best performed downscaling model is integrated into European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) with A2 future scenario. The results are then discussed to assess the probable climate change effects on temperature and precipitation.

Simulation of Late-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation over Europe Due to Anthropogenic Causes

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 4630-4635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Terray ◽  
Marie-Estelle Demory ◽  
Michel Déqué ◽  
Gaelle de Coetlogon ◽  
Eric Maisonnave
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Evidence is presented, based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios performed with a global general circulation model of the atmosphere with high horizontal resolution over Europe, to suggest that the end-of-century anthropogenic climate change over the North Atlantic–European region strongly projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation during wintertime. It is reflected in a doubling of the residence frequency of the climate system in the associated circulation regime, in agreement with the nonlinear climate perspective. The strong increase in the amplitude of the response, compared to coarse-resolution coupled model studies, suggests that improved model representation of regional climate is needed to achieve more reliable projections of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.

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