Bioclimatic approach to assessing the potential impact of climate change on wheat midge (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) in North America

2015 ◽  
Vol 148 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Olfert ◽  
R.M. Weiss ◽  
R.H. Elliott
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Relative Abundance ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Wheat Midge ◽  
Potential Impact

AbstractWheat midge, Sitodiplosis mosellana (Géhin) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), Palaearctic in origin, is thought to have been introduced into North America in the early 1800s. It is a major pest of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum Linnaeus (Poaceae)), durum wheat (T. durum Desfontaines), triticale (X-Triticosecale), and, to a lesser extent, spring rye (Secale cereale Linnaeus (Poaceae)) throughout the northern Great Plains. Climate is the principal factor regulating the distribution and abundance of most insects. A bioclimate simulation model was developed to explain the current distribution and abundance of S. mosellana. The current distribution for North America, Europe, and Asia was consistent with model projections. General circulation model scenarios (CSIRO-MK 3.0 and MIROC-H) for the 2030 and 2070 time periods were applied to the bioclimate simulation model of S. mosellana to assess the potential impact of changing climates on their distribution and relative abundance. Potential changes to relative abundance and distribution were most sensitive to time period, as opposed to climate change scenario. Differences between the MIROC-H and CSIRO-MK 3.0 models were restricted to particular regions in North America. The study found that the range and abundance of S. mosellana, and associated crop risk, was predicted to expand in a northerly direction and contract across the present southern limits.

scholarly journals Application of General Circulation Models to Assess the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution and Relative Abundance ofMelanoplus sanguinipes(Fabricius) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in North America

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Olfert ◽  
R. M. Weiss ◽  
D. Kriticos
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Relative Abundance ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Model Scenarios

Climate is the dominant factor determining the distribution and abundance of most insect species. In recent years, the issue of climatic changes caused by human activities and the effects on agriculture has raised concern. General circulation model scenarios were applied to a bioclimatic model ofMelanoplus sanguinipesto assess the potential impact of global warming on its distribution and relative abundance. Native to North America and widely distributed,M. sanguinipesis one of the grasshopper species of the continent most responsible for economic damage to grain, oilseed, pulse, and forage crops. Compared to predicted range and distribution under current climate conditions, model results indicated thatM. sanguinipeswould have increased range and relative abundance under the three general circulation model scenarios in more northern regions of North America. Conversely, model output predicted that the range of this crop pest could contract in regions where climate conditions became limiting.

scholarly journals Regional aspects of global climate change simulations : Validation and assessment of climate response over Indian monsoon region to transient increase of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 229-244
Author(s):  
K. RUPA KUMAR ◽  
R. G. ASHRIT
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Sulfate Aerosols ◽  
Monsoon Climate

The regional climatic impacts associated with global climatic change and their assessment are very important since agriculture, water resources, ecology etc., are all vulnerable to climatic changes on regional scale. Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations provide a range of scenarios, which can be used, for the assessment of impacts and development of adaptive or mitigative strategies. Validation of the models against the observations and establishing the sensitivity to climate change forcing are essential before the model projections are used for assessment of possible impacts. Moreover model simulated climate projections are often of coarse resolution while the models used for impact assessment, (e.g. crop simulation models, or river runoff models etc.) operate on a higher spatial resolution. This spatial mismatch can be overcome by adopting an appropriate strategy of downscaling the GCM output.   This study examines two AOGCM (ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM2) climate change simulations for their performance in the simulation of monsoon climate over India and the sensitivity of the simulated monsoon climate to transient changes in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. The results show that the two models simulate the gross features of climate over India reasonably well. However the inter-model differences in simulation of mean characteristics, sensitivity to forcing and in the simulation of climate change suggest need for caution. Further an empirical downscaling approach in used to assess the possibility of using GCM projections for preparation of regional climate change scenario for India.

scholarly journals Climate Change Scenario Analysis for Baro-Akobo River Basin, Southwestern Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
TERESSA NEGASSA MULETA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Development And Management

Abstract BackgroundRelatively few studies have addressed water management and adaptation measures in the face of changing water balances due to climate change. Projection of the future climate variables is done using General Circulation Model (GCM). But GCM cannot capture finer scale forcing variables at regional and basin levels. Hence Regional Climate Model (RCM) downscaled data for A1B emission scenario is bias corrected at basin level using observed data. The current study has developed future climate trends using the bias corrected RCM output data for Baro-Akobo River Basin with the basic objective of producing informative data for sustainable water resource development and management in the basin. ResultThe projected future climate shows an increasing trend for both maximum and minimum temperatures; however, for the case of precipitation it doesn’t manifest a systematic increasing or decreasing trend in the next century. The projected mean annual temperature increases from the baseline period by an amount of 1oC and 3.5oC respectively, in 2040s and 2090s. Similarly, evapotranspiration has been found to increase to an extent of 25% over the basin. The precipitation experiences a mean annual decrease by 1.8% in 2040s and increases by 1.8% in 2090s over the basin for the A1B emission scenario. ConclusionIrrespective of whether there is a trend or not, it can be concluded from these results that considerable change in climate is expected to happen over the basin as per the A1B emission scenario. In addition to quantitative change, the results of this study have depicted a considerable climate change in terms of timing and frequency and hence calls for an attention on the possible future risks of sustainable water resources development and management in the basin.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on the Air Quality: The Portuguese Case

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-208
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Environmental Science ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Photochemical Pollution

The changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols emissions are expected to lead to regional and global changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community. Regional differences in climate change and its impacts have recently been identified as current gaps in the present scientific knowledge. Air quality regional impacts of global climate change, namely the effects on photochemical production, are not a common subject of scientific studies. The main objective of this paper is to provide a basis of scientific information for policy makers and public use by the assessment of the vulnerability of Portuguese air quality to climate change. A General Circulation Model was applied in order to provide initial and driving meteorological boundary conditions, assuming a present climate situation and a scenario of double carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, for higher resolution mesometeorological and photochemical models. Results emphasise a possible significant impact of the climate change scenario on the photochemical pollution, namely at noon.

scholarly journals STOCHASTIC TYPHOON MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO FUTURE TYPHOON PROJECTION

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (32) ◽  
pp. 16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomohiro Yasuda ◽  
Hajime Mase ◽  
Shoji Kunitomi ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Yuta Hayashi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Stochastic Modelling ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Conditions

This study presents a stochastic typhoon model (STM) for estimating the characteristics of typhoons in the present and future climate conditions. Differences of statistical characteristics between present and future typhoons were estimated from projections by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) under a climate change scenario and are taken into account in the stochastic modelling of future typhoons as a climate change signal. From the STM results which utilize the Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the frequency of typhoon landfall in Osaka bay area, Japan, will decrease, although the mean value of atmospheric central pressure of typhoon will not change significantly. The arrival probability of stronger typhoons will increase in the future climate scenario.

The impacts of climate change on a Norwegian high-head hydropower system

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haregewoin Haile Chernet ◽  
Knut Alfredsen ◽  
Ånund Killingtveit
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Hydropower System ◽  
The Impact

Hydropower is the most important renewable energy source for electricity in Norway. However, it is the most vulnerable resource to climate change. Despite the importance of hydropower and its vulnerability to climate change, many studies have been mostly concerned with large-scale resources assessment. This study aims to address the climate change impacts on the scale of a single hydropower system in Norway. The impact studies are based on a combination of hydrological model and a hydropower simulation model driven by scenarios from the Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). These climate scenarios were used for driving the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) hydrological model to provide inflow scenarios for the hydropower study. The nMAG hydropower simulation model was used to simulate the hydropower system for the control and scenario period and to investigate future changes in power production. In general, the projections indicate an average increase of 11–17% in annual inflow to the system, earlier peaks and a larger increase in spring. The hydropower simulation results show an increase in energy generation of 9–20% under the current reservoir operation strategies.

“Modes of Variability” and Climate Change

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 2639-2658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Branstator ◽  
Frank Selten
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Model Atmosphere ◽  
Linear Pattern ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Mean State

Abstract A 62-member ensemble of coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations of the years 1940–2080, including the effects of projected greenhouse gas increases, is examined. The focus is on the interplay between the trend in the Northern Hemisphere December–February (DJF) mean state and the intrinsic modes of variability of the model atmosphere as given by the upper-tropospheric meridional wind. The structure of the leading modes and the trend are similar. Two commonly proposed explanations for this similarity are considered. Several results suggest that this similarity in most respects is consistent with an explanation involving patterns that result from the model dynamics being well approximated by a linear system. Specifically, the leading intrinsic modes are similar to the leading modes of a stochastic model linearized about the mean state of the GCM atmosphere, trends in GCM tropical precipitation appear to excite the leading linear pattern, and the probability density functions (PDFs) of prominent circulation patterns are quasi-Gaussian. There are, on the other hand, some subtle indications that an explanation for the similarity involving preferred states (which necessarily result from nonlinear influences) has some relevance. For example, though unimodal, PDFs of prominent patterns have departures from Gaussianity that are suggestive of a mixture of two Gaussian components. And there is some evidence of a shift in probability between the two components as the climate changes. Interestingly, contrary to the most prominent theory of the influence of nonlinearly produced preferred states on climate change, the centroids of the components also change as the climate changes. This modification of the system’s preferred states corresponds to a change in the structure of its dominant patterns. The change in pattern structure is reproduced by the linear stochastic model when its basic state is modified to correspond to the trend in the general circulation model’s mean atmospheric state. Thus, there is a two-way interaction between the trend and the modes of variability.

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