scholarly journals Application of General Circulation Models to Assess the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution and Relative Abundance ofMelanoplus sanguinipes(Fabricius) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in North America

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Olfert ◽  
R. M. Weiss ◽  
D. Kriticos
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Relative Abundance ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Model Scenarios

Climate is the dominant factor determining the distribution and abundance of most insect species. In recent years, the issue of climatic changes caused by human activities and the effects on agriculture has raised concern. General circulation model scenarios were applied to a bioclimatic model ofMelanoplus sanguinipesto assess the potential impact of global warming on its distribution and relative abundance. Native to North America and widely distributed,M. sanguinipesis one of the grasshopper species of the continent most responsible for economic damage to grain, oilseed, pulse, and forage crops. Compared to predicted range and distribution under current climate conditions, model results indicated thatM. sanguinipeswould have increased range and relative abundance under the three general circulation model scenarios in more northern regions of North America. Conversely, model output predicted that the range of this crop pest could contract in regions where climate conditions became limiting.

Bioclimatic approach to assessing the potential impact of climate change on wheat midge (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) in North America

2015 ◽  
Vol 148 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Olfert ◽  
R.M. Weiss ◽  
R.H. Elliott
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Relative Abundance ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Wheat Midge ◽  
Potential Impact

AbstractWheat midge, Sitodiplosis mosellana (Géhin) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), Palaearctic in origin, is thought to have been introduced into North America in the early 1800s. It is a major pest of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum Linnaeus (Poaceae)), durum wheat (T. durum Desfontaines), triticale (X-Triticosecale), and, to a lesser extent, spring rye (Secale cereale Linnaeus (Poaceae)) throughout the northern Great Plains. Climate is the principal factor regulating the distribution and abundance of most insects. A bioclimate simulation model was developed to explain the current distribution and abundance of S. mosellana. The current distribution for North America, Europe, and Asia was consistent with model projections. General circulation model scenarios (CSIRO-MK 3.0 and MIROC-H) for the 2030 and 2070 time periods were applied to the bioclimate simulation model of S. mosellana to assess the potential impact of changing climates on their distribution and relative abundance. Potential changes to relative abundance and distribution were most sensitive to time period, as opposed to climate change scenario. Differences between the MIROC-H and CSIRO-MK 3.0 models were restricted to particular regions in North America. The study found that the range and abundance of S. mosellana, and associated crop risk, was predicted to expand in a northerly direction and contract across the present southern limits.

scholarly journals Ice-Age Climate and Continental Ice Sheets: Some Experiments with A General Circulation Model

1984 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 100-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Manabe ◽  
A. J. Broccoli
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Geological Evidence ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Continental Ice Sheets

The climatic influence of the land ice which existed 18 ka BP is investigated using a climate model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The model consists of an atmospheric general circulation model coupled with a static mixed layer ocean model. Simulated climates are obtained from each of two versions of the model: one with the land-ice distribution of the present and the other with that of 18 ka BP.In the northern hemisphere, the difference in the distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) between the two experiments resembles the difference between the SST at 18 ka BP and at present as estimated by CLIMAP Project Members (1981). In the northern hemisphere a substantial lowering of air temperature also occurs in winter, with a less pronounced cooling during summer. The mid-tropospheric flow field is influenced by the Laurentide ice sheet and features a split jet stream straddling the ice sheet and a long wave trough along the east coast of North America. In the southern hemisphere of 18 ka BP, the ice sheet has little influence on temperature. An examination of hemispheric heat balances indicates that this is because only a small change in interhemispheric heat transport exists, as the In situ radiative compensation in the northern hemisphere counterbalances the effective reflection of solar radiation by continental ice sheets.Hydrologic changes in the model climate are also found, with statistically significant decreases in soil moisture occurring in a zone located to the south of the ice sheets in North America and Eurasia. These findings are consistent with some geological evidence of regionally drier climates from the last glacial maximum.

scholarly journals Ice-Age Climate and Continental Ice Sheets: Some Experiments with A General Circulation Model

1984 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 100-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Manabe ◽  
A. J. Broccoli
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Geological Evidence ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Continental Ice Sheets

The climatic influence of the land ice which existed 18 ka BP is investigated using a climate model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The model consists of an atmospheric general circulation model coupled with a static mixed layer ocean model. Simulated climates are obtained from each of two versions of the model: one with the land-ice distribution of the present and the other with that of 18 ka BP.In the northern hemisphere, the difference in the distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) between the two experiments resembles the difference between the SST at 18 ka BP and at present as estimated by CLIMAP Project Members (1981). In the northern hemisphere a substantial lowering of air temperature also occurs in winter, with a less pronounced cooling during summer. The mid-tropospheric flow field is influenced by the Laurentide ice sheet and features a split jet stream straddling the ice sheet and a long wave trough along the east coast of North America. In the southern hemisphere of 18 ka BP, the ice sheet has little influence on temperature. An examination of hemispheric heat balances indicates that this is because only a small change in interhemispheric heat transport exists, as the In situ radiative compensation in the northern hemisphere counterbalances the effective reflection of solar radiation by continental ice sheets.Hydrologic changes in the model climate are also found, with statistically significant decreases in soil moisture occurring in a zone located to the south of the ice sheets in North America and Eurasia. These findings are consistent with some geological evidence of regionally drier climates from the last glacial maximum.

Length of the fire season in a changing climate

1993 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. M. Wotton ◽  
M. D. Flannigan
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Large Array ◽  
Season Length ◽  
Daily Weather ◽  
Weather Stations

The Canadian Climate Centre's General Circulation Model provides two 10-year data sets of simulated daily weather for a large array of gridpoints across North America. A subset of this data, comprised of only those points within the forested part of Canada, was selected for study. Fire season length was calculated from data sets of both the 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 runs of the model as well as for the actual climate, using observed data from weather stations. A comparison made between the results of the 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 runs indicated a significantly longer fire season across the country under a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels. Implications of this result, such as a fall fire season in Canada's east and greater strains on management agencies, are discussed.

A Quantitative Assessment of the Arabian Sea Sediment Record Using GCM Simulated Upwelling

1991 ◽  
Vol 35 (3-Part1) ◽  
pp. 464-468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant R. Bigg ◽  
Dongxiang Jiang ◽  
John F. B. Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Relative Abundance ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Vertical Transport ◽  
Sediment Record ◽  
Globigerina Bulloides ◽  
Monsoon Winds

AbstractA general circulation model (GCM) of the ocean is used to study the effects of changes in the monsoon winds of present day and 9000 yr B.P. on the upwelling in the Arabian Sea. The vertical transport from the ocean GCM is used as a measure of upwelling strength to assess the relative abundance of Globigerina bulloides at present and 9000 yr B.P., during the climatic optimum. The high abundance of G. bulloides at 9000 yr B.P. is probably a result of a doubling of the vertical transport at that time.

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