scholarly journals A model of malaria population dynamics with migrants

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 7301-7317
Author(s):  
Peter Witbooi ◽  
◽  
Gbenga Abiodun ◽  
Mozart Nsuami
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Indoor Residual Spraying ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Equilibrium Existence ◽  
Vector Population ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Special Case ◽  
Disease Free

<abstract><p>We present a compartmental model in ordinary differential equations of malaria disease transmission, accommodating the effect of indoor residual spraying on the vector population. The model allows for influx of infected migrants into the host population and for outflow of recovered migrants. The system is shown to have positive solutions. In the special case of no infected immigrants, we prove global stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Existence of a unique endemic equilibrium point is also established for the case of positive influx of infected migrants. As a case study we consider the combined South African malaria region. Using data covering 31 years, we quantify the effect of malaria infected immigrants on the South African malaria region.</p></abstract>

scholarly journals A Dengue Vaccination Model for Immigrants in a Two-Age-Class Population

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hengki Tasman ◽  
Asep K. Supriatna ◽  
Nuning Nuraini ◽  
Edy Soewono
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Disease Status ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Reproduction Ratio ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Vector Population ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Existence And Stability ◽  
Adult Classes ◽  
Disease Free

We develop a model of dengue transmission with some vaccination programs for immigrants. We classify the host population into child and adult classes, in regards to age structure, and into susceptible, infected and recovered compartments, in regards to disease status. Since migration plays important role in disease transmission, we include immigration and emigration factors into the model which are distributed in each compartment. Meanwhile, the vector population is divided into susceptible, exposed, and infectious compartments. In the case when there is no incoming infected immigrant, we obtain the basic reproduction ratio as a threshold parameter for existence and stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria. Meanwhile, in the case when there are some incoming infected immigrants, we obtain only endemic equilibrium. This indicates that screening for the immigrants is important to ensure the effectiveness of the disease control.

scholarly journals Reducing risky driver behaviour through the implementation of a driver risk management system

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rose Luke ◽  
Gert J. Heyns
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
South African ◽  
Management System ◽  
Critical Incident ◽  
Driver Behaviour ◽  
Risk Management System ◽  
Ratio Data ◽  
Using Data

South Africa has one of the highest incidences of road accidents in the world. Most accidents are avoidable and are caused by driver behaviour and errors. The purpose of this article was to identify the riskiest driver behaviours in commercial fleets in South Africa, to determine the business impact of such behaviour, to establish a framework for the management of risky driver behaviour and to test the framework by applying a leading commercial driver behaviour management system as a case study. The case study comprised three South African commercial fleets. Using data from these fleets, critical incident triangles were used to determine the ratio data of risky driver behaviour to near-collisions and collisions. Based on managing the riskiest driver behaviours as causes of more serious incidents and accidents, the results indicated that through the implementation of an effective driver risk management system, risky incidents were significantly reduced.

scholarly journals A malaria transmission model with seasonal mosquito life-history traits

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramsès Djidjou-Demasse ◽  
Gbenga J. Abiodun ◽  
Abiodun M. Adeola ◽  
Joel O. Botai
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Stationary State ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Human Disease ◽  
Life History Traits ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Positive Periodic Solution ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Disease Free

AbstractIn this paper we develop and analyse a malaria model with seasonality of mosquito life-history traits: periodic-mosquitoes per capita birth rate, -mosquitoes death rate, -probability of mosquito to human disease transmission, -probability of human to mosquito disease transmission and -mosquitoes biting rate. All these parameters are assumed to be time dependent leading to a nonautonomous differential equation systems. We provide a global analysis of the model depending on two thresholds parametersand(with). When, then the disease-free stationary state is locally asymptotically stable. In the presence of the human disease-induced mortality, the global stability of the disease-free stationary state is guarantied when. On the contrary, if, the disease persists in the host population in the long term and the model admits at least one positive periodic solution. Moreover, by a numerical simulation, we show that a subcritical (backward) bifurcation is possible at. Finally, the simulation results are in accordance with the seasonal variation of the reported cases of a malaria-epidemic region in Mpumalanga province in South Africa.

scholarly journals Global Stability Analysis of Two-Stage Quarantine-Isolation Model with Holling Type II Incidence Function

Mathematics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad A. Safi
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Incidence Function ◽  
Special Case ◽  
Disease Free

A new two-stage model for assessing the effect of basic control measures, quarantine and isolation, on a general disease transmission dynamic in a population is designed and rigorously analyzed. The model uses the Holling II incidence function for the infection rate. First, the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) is determined. The model has both locally and globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever R 0 < 1 . If R 0 > 1 , then the disease is shown to be uniformly persistent. The model has a unique endemic equilibrium when R 0 > 1 . A nonlinear Lyapunov function is used in conjunction with LaSalle Invariance Principle to show that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for a special case.

scholarly journals Effects of Coinfection on the Dynamics of Two Pathogens in a Tick-Host Infection Model

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Bei Sun ◽  
Xue Zhang ◽  
Marco Tosato
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Infection Model ◽  
Uniform Persistence ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Boundary Equilibrium ◽  
Tick Borne Disease ◽  
Host Infection ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

As both ticks and hosts may carry one or more pathogens, the phenomenon of coinfection of multiple tick-borne diseases becomes highly relevant and plays a key role in tick-borne disease transmission. In this paper, we propose a coinfection model involving two tick-borne diseases in a tick-host population and calculate the basic reproduction numbers at the disease-free equilibrium and two boundary equilibria. To explore the impact of coinfection, we also derive the invasion reproduction numbers which indicate the potential of a pathogen to persist when another pathogen already exists in tick and host populations. Then, we obtain the global stability of the system at the disease-free equilibrium and the boundary equilibrium, respectively, and further demonstrate the existence conditions for uniform persistence of the two diseases. The final numerical simulations mainly verify the theoretical results of coinfection.

A case study of global ULF pulsations using data from space-borne and ground-based magnetometers and a SuperDARN radar

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 54-67
Author(s):  
A.S. Potapov ◽  
◽  
E. Amata ◽  
T.N. Polyushkina ◽  
I. Coco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Using Data

Nonwovens: Global Trends in World Economy, European Foreign Trade, and Selected Case Studies from Poland and Asian Brics Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zofia Wysokińska ◽  
Tomasz Czajkowski ◽  
Katarzyna Grabowska
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
World Economy ◽  
World Market ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Textile Materials ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Special Case

AbstractNonwovens are one of the most versatile textile materials and have become increasingly popular in almost all sectors of the economy due to their low manufacturing costs and unique properties. In the next few years, the world market of nonwovens is predicted to grow by 7%–8% annually (International Nonwovens & Disposables Association [INDA], European Disposables and Nonwovens Association [EDANA], and Markets and Markets). This article aims to analyze the most recent trends in the global export and import of nonwovens, to present two case studies of Polish companies that produce them, and to present one special case study of the market of nonwoven geotextiles in China and India, which are the Asian transition economies among the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa).

The Socio-Economic Challenges of South African Indigenous Musicians: A Case Study of Venda-Based Vho-Ntshengedzeni Mamphodo

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
N G Mugovhani ◽  
Lebogang Lance Nawa
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Cultural Policy ◽  
Qualitative Case Study ◽  
Arts Management ◽  
Black South African ◽  
Indigenous Music ◽  
Entire Country

This article discusses and raises awareness about the socio-economic plight of indigenous musicians in South Africa. Through a qualitative case study of the Venda musician, Vho-Talelani Andries Ntshengedzeni Mamphodo, dubbed the “Father of mbila music,” the article highlights the fact that the welfare of Black South African artists, particularly indigenous musicians in South Africa, is generally a precarious affair. Their popularity, at the height of their careers, sometimes masks shocking details of exploitation, neglect, and the poverty they are subjected to, which are exposed only after they have died. Empirical data identifies this as a symptom of, among other things, cultural policy and arts management deficiencies in the promotion of indigenous music. The article aims to find ways to redress this unfortunate situation, which is partially a product of general apathy and scant regard that these artists have perennially been subjected to, even by their own governments, as well as some members of their societies. All these factors mentioned are compounded by ignorance on the part of South African artists. Part of the objective of this study was to establish whether the exposition of the Vhavenda musicians is a typical example of all Black South African indigenous musicians and, if this is the case, whether the suggested ways to redress this unfortunate situation could contribute to or play a role in alleviating the plight of such artists in the entire country.

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