scholarly journals Coupled Wave-2D Hydrodynamics Modeling at the Reno River Mouth (Italy) under Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Gabriella Gaeta ◽  
Davide Bonaldo ◽  
Achilleas G. Samaras ◽  
Sandro Carniel ◽  
Renata Archetti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Adriatic Sea ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
River Mouth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Coupled Wave

This work presents the results of the numerical study implemented for the natural area of Lido di Spina, a touristic site along the Italian coast of the North Adriatic Sea, close to the mouth of River Reno. High-resolution simulations of nearshore dynamics are carried out under climate change conditions estimated for the site. The adopted modeling chain is based on the implementation of multiple-nested, open-source numerical models. More specifically, the coupled wave-2D hydrodynamics runs, using the open-source TELEMAC suite, are forced at the offshore boundary by waves resulting from the wave model (SWAN) simulations for the Adriatic Sea, and sea levels computed following a joint probability analysis approach. The system simulates present-day scenarios, as well as conditions reflecting the high IPCC greenhouse concentration trajectory named RCP8.5 under predicted climate changes. Selection of sea storms directed from SE (Sirocco events) and E–NE (Bora events) is performed together with Gumbel analysis, in order to define ordinary and extreme sea conditions. The numerical results are here presented in terms of local parameters such as wave breaking position, alongshore currents intensity and direction and flooded area, aiming to provide insights on how climate changes may impact hydrodynamics at a site scale. Although the wave energy intensity predicted for Sirocco events is expected to increase only slightly, modifications of the wave dynamics, current patterns, and inland flooding induced by climate changes are expected to be significant for extreme conditions, especially during Sirocco winds, with an increase in the maximum alongshore currents and in the inundated area compared to past conditions.

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

Emerging climate changes and the risks to the operation of building assets in the UK

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Alzahrani ◽  
Halim Boussabaine ◽  
Ali Nasser Alzaed
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report results from a survey on emerging climate changes and the risks to the operation of building assets in the UK. The property sector is facing major challenges as a result of projected climate change scenarios. Predictions concerning future climate change and the subsequent impact on building operations are still subject to a high degree of uncertainty. However, it is important that building stockholders consider a range of possible future risks that may influence the operation of their assets. Design/methodology/approach – The literature review and questionnaire are used to elicit and assess the likelihood of occurrence of climate change risks impacting building operations. The survey was carried out among building stockowners and professionals in the UK. Statistical methods were used to rank and compare the findings. Findings – The majority of the respondents strongly agreed that the list of risks that were elicited from the literature will have an impact on their building assets within a 0-5 years’ time horizon. It was found that the professionals were most concerned about higher energy prices and an increase in operation costs in general; they were least concerned about an electricity blackout. Research limitations/implications – This paper is limited to the UK, and regional variations are not explored. Nevertheless, the buildings’ operation risk study provides a starting point for further investigations into the emerging risks from climate change, and their impact on the operation of building stock. Future work could investigate direct mapping between climate risks and the financial value of properties. Originality/value – Findings of this paper can help professionals and building stockowners improve their understanding of climate change risks and the impact on their assets. This paper could also help these individuals to formulate appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals Reservoir yield intercomparison of large dams in Jaguaribe Basin-CE in climate change scenarios

RBRH ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Renato de Oliveira Fernandes ◽  
Cleiton da Silva Silveira ◽  
Ticiana Marinho de Carvalho Studart ◽  
Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Great Divergence ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Reservoir Yield

ABSTRACT Climate changes can have different impacts on water resources. Strategies to adapt to climate changes depend on impact studies. In this context, this study aimed to estimate the impact that changes in precipitation, projected by Global Circulation Models (GCMs) in the fifth report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) may cause on reservoir yield (Q90) of large reservoirs (Castanhão and Banabuiú), located in the Jaguaribe River Basin, Ceará. The rainfall data are from 20 GCMs using two greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The precipitation projections were used as input data for the rainfall-runoff model (SMAP) and, after the reservoirs’ inflow generation, the reservoir yields were simulated in the AcquaNet model, for the time periods of 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. The results were analyzed and presented a great divergence, in sign (increase or decrease) and in the magnitude of change of Q90. However, most Q90 projections indicated reduction in both reservoirs, for the two periods, especially at the end of the 21th century.

Climate change effects on forest floor interception in woody Cerrado ecosystem

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Livia Rosalem ◽  
Miriam Gerrits-Coenders ◽  
Jamil A. A. Anache ◽  
Julian S. Sone ◽  
Dimaghi Schwamback ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Floor ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Fluxes ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Water Partitioning ◽  
Evaporative Flux

<p>The interception process is an important redistributor of water fluxes, which can considerably affect terrestrial evaporation. Not only the canopy intercepts water, but also from the forest floor significant amounts of water vapor return to the atmosphere. Remaining forests are important areas to evaluate the possible effects of climate change on the water partitioning process. Despite the hydrologic and ecosystem services offered by Cerrado forests, the interception process, as well as climate change threats on the evaporative flux of such forests, are still unknown. This study attempts to anticipate the possible impacts on the forest floor interception process in Cerrado stricto sensu considering future scenarios of climate change. To accomplish this, we used data of field monitoring from June 2017 to February 2020 in an undisturbed Cerrado s.s. forest in São Paulo State, Brazil. We calibrated and validated an improved version of the Rutter interception model (Rutter et al., 1971), which includes interception from the forest floor. Projected climate change scenarios were obtained from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE, Brazil) from 2006 to 2099 with 5km spatial resolution generated by Eta-HadGEM2-ES regional climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5. The results indicate increased rainfall and decreased potential evaporation in the decade 2041-2060. By the Rutter model, the total interception increased for this period (2041-2060) associated with decreased forest floor evaporation. During the first (2006-2020) and the last (2081-2099) decades, the predictions suggest an increase of 2.4% on the average annual percentage of forest floor evaporation, also an increase of minimum annual interception percentages (from 17.1% to 18.7%). Thus, our results demonstrate the relevance of forest floor to the interception process and suggest that it can be even more relevant in the future due to the climate changes.</p>

scholarly journals A coupled wave–3-D hydrodynamics model of the Taranto Sea (Italy): a multiple-nesting approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 2071-2083 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Gabriella Gaeta ◽  
Achilleas G. Samaras ◽  
Ivan Federico ◽  
Renata Archetti ◽  
Francesco Maicu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Oceanographic Model ◽  
Coupled Wave

Abstract. The present work describes an operational strategy for the development of a multiscale modeling system, based on a multiple-nesting approach and open-source numerical models. The strategy was applied and validated for the Gulf of Taranto in southern Italy, scaling large-scale oceanographic model results to high-resolution coupled wave–3-D hydrodynamics simulations for the area of Mar Grande in the Taranto Sea. The spatial and temporal high-resolution simulations were performed using the open-source TELEMAC suite, forced by wind data from the COSMO-ME database, boundary wave spectra from the RON buoy at Crotone and results from the Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian coastal Forecasting System (SANIFS) regarding sea levels and current fields. Model validation was carried out using data collected in the Mar Grande basin from a fixed monitoring station and during an oceanographic campaign in October 2014. The overall agreement between measurements and model results in terms of waves, sea levels, surface currents, circulation patterns and vertical velocity profiles is deemed to be satisfactory, and the methodology followed in the process can constitute a useful tool for both research and operational applications in the same field and as support of decisions for management and design of infrastructures.

scholarly journals A coupled wave-3D hydrodynamics model of the Taranto Sea (Italy): a multiple-nesting approach

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Gabriella Gaeta ◽  
Achilleas G. Samaras ◽  
Ivan Federico ◽  
Renata Archetti
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
South Italy ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Coupled Wave

Abstract. The present work describes an operational strategy for the development of a multiscale modelling system, based on a multiple–nesting approach and open–source numerical models. The strategy was applied and validated for the Gulf of Taranto in South Italy, scaling large–scale oceanographic model results to high–resolution coupled wave – 3D hydrodynamics simulations for the area of Mar Grande in Taranto Sea. The spatial and temporal high – resolution simulations were performed using the open–source TELEMAC suite, forced by wind data from the COSMO–ME database, boundary wave spectra from the RON Buoy at Crotone, and results from the Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian coastal Forecasting System (SANIFS) regarding sea levels and current fields. Model validation was carried out using data collected in the Mar Grande basin from a fixed monitoring station and during an oceanographic campaign in October 2014. The overall agreement between measurements and model results in terms of waves, sea levels, surface currents, circulation patterns and vertical velocity profiles is deemed to be satisfactory, and the methodology followed in the process can constitute a useful tool for both research and operational applications on the same field and and as support of decisions for management and design of infrastructures.

scholarly journals Quo Vadis Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo: A Future Outlook for Two of the Caribbean Basin’s Largest Lakes

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Mahrokh Moknatian ◽  
Michael Piasecki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Small Community ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Quo Vadis ◽  
Forcing Mechanisms

Lakes Azuei (LA) and Enriquillo (LE) on Hispaniola Island started expanding in 2005 and continued to do so until 2016. After inundating large swaths of arable land, submerging a small community, and threatening to swallow a significant trade route between the Dominican Republic and Haiti; worries persisted at how far this seemingly unstoppable expansion would go. The paper outlines the approach to a look forward to answer this question vis-à-vis climate change scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It uses numerical representations of the two lakes, and it examines how the lakes might evolve, deploying three different forcing mechanisms: that of weather and drift due to climate change, that of extreme events, such as hurricanes, and that of anthropogenic impacts, such as unintended water transfers between adjacent watersheds. Runs are executed Monte Carlo style using 11 different forcing combinations, each with a thousand instances of results generated by varying the numerous parameters that define the numerical models. The results are necessarily not precise and vary significantly as the forecast horizon expands, creating expanding envelopes of outcomes. Although some outcomes suggest a continued rise of the lake levels, most scenarios yield a reduction and recession of the lake waters.

scholarly journals Model simulations of the ecological dynamics induced by climate and nutrient load changes for deep subalpine Lake Maggiore (Italy/Switzerland)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Fenocchi ◽  
Michela Rogora ◽  
Aldo Marchetto ◽  
Stefano Sibilla ◽  
Claudia Dresti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nutrient Loads ◽  
Nutrient Input ◽  
Lake Ecosystems ◽  
Lake Maggiore ◽  
Subalpine Lake

Climate warming affects lake ecosystems both through its direct effect on the phenology of species and through the alteration of the physical and chemical environments, which in turn affect community composition. In deep lakes, stratification enhancement and mixing reduction have already been observed, leading to hypolimnetic anoxia and to the rise of cyanophytes. The increase in stability depends on the rise of air temperature due to global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Primary production could then either increase with rising epilimnetic temperature and buoyancy or decrease as fewer nutrients are upwelled from deep layers. The prevailing outcome, as well as the quantitative and temporal dynamics of all climate-induced modifications, depend on the specific lake characteristics. Individual analyses are then needed, one-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic-ecological numerical models being suitable tools for such predictions. Here, we simulated with GLM-AED2 (General Lake Model – Aquatic EcoDynamics) the 2020-2085 dynamics of the oligomictic and oligotrophic deep subalpine Lake Maggiore (Italy/Switzerland), according to the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011. Multiple realisations were performed for each scenario with random meteorological series obtained from the Vector-Autoregressive Weather Generator (VG), highlighting the uncertainties related to meteorology. Increase and decrease of nutrient loads were also tested. Results show that anoxia would occur in the hypolimnion regardless of nutrient input reduction, unless global GHG emissions were immediately reduced. Total phytoplankton biomass would be weakly affected by climate change, strongly depending on nutrient input, yet water warming would cause cyanophytes to compete with diatoms. Therefore, the fate of Lake Maggiore would be tied to both global and local environmental policies.

scholarly journals Application of Open Source Electronics for Measurements of Surface Water Properties in an Estuary: A Case Study of River Jadro, Croatia

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 209
Author(s):  
Vladimir Divić ◽  
Morena Galešić ◽  
Mariaines Di Dato ◽  
Marina Tavra ◽  
Roko Andričević
Keyword(s):  
Electrical Conductivity ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Near Field ◽  
River Mouth ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Field Zone ◽  
Water Properties ◽  
Analytical Approaches

There are multiple factors affecting the behavior of water properties in an estuary, including the hydraulic properties of rivers and corresponding receiving water bodies, along with the potential solutes brought by rivers. Although there are various numerical models and analytical approaches to solving particular or holistic problems in estuaries, measurements are inevitably required. In this study, we developed an innovative low-cost probe based on the Arduino platform as an alternative to more expensive measuring systems. Our device is designed to measure position, temperature, and electrical conductivity in multiple realizations, and it consists of a floating container equipped with the following components: an Arduino Mega development board, a power management module, an SD card logging module, a Bluetooth module, a temperature measuring module, a global positioning satellite (GPS) position module, and a newly developed module for measuring electrical conductivity (EC). We emphasize that all used tools are open-source and greatly supported by the worldwide community. We tested our probe during a field campaign conducted at the estuary of River Jadro near Split (Croatia). Nine probes were released at the river mouth and their position, temperature, and EC were monitored and recorded during the experiment, which ended when the probes stopped, due to the river plume attenuation. The same experiment was repeated three times. All of the probes recorded consistent temperature data, while the EC data show more variable behavior, due to the higher sensitivity of the corresponding sensor. This was expected as a part of the natural process in the estuary. The measured data were additionally used to parameterize an analytical model for mean flow velocity and salinity as a proxy concentration. This showed a good match between the experimental results and the theoretical framework. This work, although focused on water surface applications in the near field zone of an estuary, should be considered as a promising step toward the development of innovative and affordable measurement devices.

scholarly journals Agricultural and Forestry Land and Labor Use under Long-Term Climate Change in Chile

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 305
Author(s):  
Oscar Melo ◽  
William Foster
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Income Generation ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Average Output ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Municipal Level

The appropriate design of land-use and rural employment policies depends upon the anticipated performance of the farm sector in the context of expected climate changes, especially with respect to land allocations to potential activities. Concerns over the possible net benefits of land-use changes are particularly acute in lower- and middle-income countries, where agriculture tends to be important in employment, income generation and foreign-exchange earnings. This paper presents an analysis of the expected impacts on land use in Chile of projected climate-change scenarios in 2040 and 2070. We developed a farmland allocation model with associated labor employment at the municipal level driven by expected relative net incomes per hectare, constructed from local average per-hectare yields, regional average output prices and per-hectare production cost estimates. The sensitivities of cropland allocations to relative net-income changes were estimated using historical land allocations at the municipal level derived from the last two Chilean Agricultural Censuses. The results show that the impacts of climate changes will be mitigated by land-use adaptation, the main export-earning crops tending to move south; in aggregate, agricultural employment will decrease in all the climate-change scenarios; forestry and agriculture would likely suffer a loss in net-income generation under severe climate-change scenarios.

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