scholarly journals Differences in Local Rice Price Volatility, Climate, and Macroeconomic Determinants in the Indonesian Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4465
Author(s):  
Agie Wandala Putra ◽  
Jatna Supriatna ◽  
Raldi Hendro Koestoer ◽  
Tri Edhi Budhi Soesilo
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Local Market ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Controllable Factors ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants

Rice is a staple food in most Asian countries, and food security is often viewed as having a rice supply to avoid a food crisis. The large number of people who have low incomes means there is a risk of household economic conditions being threatened when food prices are not controlled. We present a different approach by measuring rice price volatility at the local market level with climate and macroeconomic variables. The model succeeds in representing the variables that affect rice prices by an average of 75% nationally. The influence of macroeconomic variables and climate dynamics was found to have a non-uniform pattern from one region to another. The factors that dominate the volatility of rice prices in each province were different. To help address these problems, it is suggested to model and integrate climate data and macroeconomic variables. The output can be used to determine national policies for controllable factors and anticipate climate dynamics to reduce the risk that communities will have difficulty accessing food.

scholarly journals Kinerja Rantai Pasok, Dinamika, dan Pembentukan Harga Beras di Jawa Tengah

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
NFN Saptana ◽  
Erma Suryani ◽  
Emmy Darmawati
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Conversion Rate ◽  
Milling Process ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Production Performance ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Rain Season ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
Rice Milling

<p>Rice supply chain from producers to consumers in Central Java Province is relatively extensive and it affects rice price establishment. This study aimed to assess rice production performance, dried paddy (GKG) conversion rate into rice, rice supply chain, dynamics of rice prices among seasons and markets, and rice price establishment. This research was conducted in 2018 in rice producing centers in Central Java, namely Sragen, Klaten and Demak Regencies. This province had a rice production surplus and it was marketed mostly to West Java and Jakarta provinces. Conversion rate from paddy to rice varies between 60-65% or an average of 62.74% depending on varieties grown, drying process, and harvesting machine condition. In general, there are six to seven actors in the rice supply chain. During the main harvest in rainy season, paddy and rice prices usually dropped due to abundant supply. However, during the harvest in rain season in 2017/2018, paddy and rice prices remained high. This case indicated that paddy and rice prices establishment were more determined by supply side. It can be concluded that shorten the rice supply chain will increase paddy price at farm level and reduce rice price at consumer level. To shorten the rice supply chain effectively, it is recommended that rice milling process to be done at the milling industry.</p><p> </p><p>Abstrak</p><p>Rantai pasok beras di Jawa Tengah dari tingkat produsen hingga konsumen masih cukup panjang. Kondisi ini berpengaruh pada pembentukan harga beras. Tujuan penelitian adalah untuk mengkaji kinerja produksi padi, besaran rendemen gabah kering giling (GKG) menjadi beras, kinerja rantai pasok gabah dan beras, dinamika harga beras antar musim dan pasar, dan pembentukan harga beras pada setiap tingkatan pelaku rantai pasok beras. Penelitian dilakukan tahun 2018 di lokasi sentra produksi padi Provinsi Jawa Tengah yaitu Kabupaten Sragen, Klaten, dan Demak. Hasil kajian menunjukkan provinsi ini menghasilkan surplus beras yang dipasarkan terutama ke Jawa Barat dan Jakarta. Tingkat rendemen GKG menjadi beras bervariasi antara 60-65% atau rata-rata 62,74% tergantung varietas, proses pengeringan, dan kondisi mesin panen. Rantai pasok beras cukup panjang, sebanyak enam sampai tujuh pelaku. Sesuai pola yang umum dikenal, pada musim panen raya pada musim hujan (MH) harga gabah dan beras turun, namun pada musim panen raya MH 2017/2018 harga pangan ini tetap tinggi. Hal ini disebabkan pembentukan harga gabah dan beras lebih ditentukan oleh aspek pasokan dibandingkan aspek permintaan. Dari hasil penelitian ini disimpulkan pemangkasan rantai pasok gabah dan beras dari petani produsen ke konsumen dapat meningkatkan harga gabah di tingkat petani dan menurunkan harga beras di tingkat konsumen. Agar upaya pemotongan rantai pasok berjalan efektif, maka penggilingan gabah menjadi beras sebaiknya dilakukan di industri penggilingan padi.</p>

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF THE WORLD FOOD PRICE INDEX ON SOME EAST-EUROPEAN ECONOMIES

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-287
Author(s):  
Corina Saman ◽  
Cecilia Alexandri
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Macroeconomic Implications ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

This paper deals with the dynamic response of exchange rates, inflation and agricultural foreign trade in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania to global food prices. We employ time-varying VARs with stochastic volatility to estimate the behaviour of these macroeconomic variables over the 2001M1–2015M12 period. The original contribution of this paper is that it captures the time variation and nonlinearities of the relationship between variables taking into account food price volatility and its macroeconomic implications. The main findings of the paper are: (i) high global food prices were transmitted to domestic economies causing pressure on inflation in the long run; (ii) in the short run the impact of a positive shock in international food price increases domestic inflation, depreci-ates the currency and reduces the agricultural trade; (iii) the vulnerabilities to global food prices are more pregnant for Romania and Bulgaria; (iv) the difference in the transmission of world prices is related to the different status of the countries as regards food and agricultural trade. The findings of the research would be significant for the governments to promote policies to help farmers respond to the rising of food prices by growing more and responding to export opportunities that may arise.

Forecasting Models Based on Data Analytics for Predicting Rice Price Volatility: A Case Study of the Sri Lankan Rice Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (01) ◽  
pp. 1950006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chanchala Hathurusingha ◽  
Neda Abdelhamid ◽  
David Airehrour
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Rice Market ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Viable Mechanism

Paddy rice is a staple food that is common among the Sri Lankan populace. However, the frequent price variation of rice has negatively impacted the Sri Lankan economy. This is due to the Sri Lankan rice market lacking the mechanisms to evaluate and predict future rice price variations, often leaving domestic traders and consumers affected by sudden price spikes. This study identifies the quantifiable economic factors that affect the sudden rice price variations and presents a viable mechanism for forecasting Domestic Rice Price (DRP). In addition, it establishes three different regression models to emphasise the relationship of DRP in Sri Lanka with three economic factors: International Rice Price (IRP), International Crude Oil Price (ICOP), and USD Exchange Rate. Further, a time series model is formulated to forecast future variations in DRP while advancing factors that have a significant, but negative, correlative impact on the DRP. The results presented in this study show that the models proposed can be used by relevant food authorities to predict sudden hikes and dips in DRP, allowing them to establish a robust price control system.

Reflections on Sustainable Development Planning in the Agricultural Industry

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 591
Author(s):  
Aigul TLESOVA ◽  
Saule PRIMBETOVA ◽  
Aigul KAZAMBAYEVA ◽  
Saltanat YESSENGALIYEVA ◽  
Farida MUKHAMBETKALIYEVA
Keyword(s):  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Agricultural Industry ◽  
Theoretical Approaches ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Food Shortages ◽  
Food Reserves

In the past few years, we have experienced a transition from the decades-long period of falling real prices of grains, and food more generally, to a new market environment in which commodity and food prices are higher, more volatile and more highly influenced by petroleum prices. The problems of reaction for price volatility, both in the short- and long-run, are complex and multifaceted. Looking back at the 2007/08 crisis, countries responded through a spectrum of policies, but were largely unprepared, resulting in ad hoc and short-term mechanisms. Countries maintaining food reserves used these to intervene directly in the market to stabilize domestic prices. Many food importing countries reduced import tariffs, while several surplus producing countries limited, or even banned, exports in order to avoid food shortages and further domestic price increases. For whatever actions governments consider taking, it is always important to keep in mind the full set of policy measures, the wider risks and possible responses for the targeted population. The following suggests that choosing appropriate policies requires a deeper understanding of the issues at stake. This paper analyses the various theoretical approaches to the planning of agricultural and food areas of Kazakhstan. The authors consider that the method of forecast scenarios is the most effective one.

scholarly journals Importing High Food Prices by Exporting: Rice Prices in Lao PDR

2016 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 164-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dick Durevall ◽  
Roy van der Weide
Keyword(s):  
Lao Pdr ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
High Food ◽  
Rice Prices

scholarly journals Effect Of Oil Prices On Food prices: Time Series Analysis Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sassi Mohamed Taher
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Rice Prices

This study examines the effect of oil prices on food prices using worldwide monthly data covering crude oil prices wheat, soybeans and rice prices from 08.2013 until 06.2017 from World-Bank-Database 2017. It specifically considers the identification of the short-term causal relationship between oil and the selected commodity prices using the Vector-Autoregressive-Model as main model and its post-estimation methods, Granger-Causality-Test and Impulse response function. The results show that there is no long run relationship between the variables but a significant causal short-term relationship between oil prices and wheat prices is confirmed. The impulse response results after a simulated shock on oil prices showed mainly negative response of soybeans prices a and persistent increase on wheat prices, for the rice prices response there was a slight increase on rice prices after the shock of oil prices. This research targets the detection of one influencing factor to food prices in order to support food security. To achieve this objective and recommend solutions research needed to further investigate the interaction of food prices with other variables.

scholarly journals TRANSMISI HARGA GABAH TERHADAP HARGA BERAS: TINJAUAN ARAH, BESARAN DAN LAMA PERUBAHAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 140
Author(s):  
Agung Andiojaya
Keyword(s):  
Price Change ◽  
Retail Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Farm Level ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
The Government

Policies to maintain rice prices are a sensitive policy in Indonesia so that the government controls the rice price tightly in every level of the rice market. To make sure it runs well, the government needs to take into account the magnitude, direction, and speed of transmission of the rice price changes. When these three things can be monitored and controlled well, the success rate of controlling prices is in hand. This study investigates the direction and speed of transmission of changes in grain prices at the farm level to changes in rice prices at various levels of trade. The empirical results utilizing Granger Causality Test and VAR indicate that changes in the price of grain at the farm level significantly cause changes in rice prices at the milling and wholesale levels in a unidirectional way. Meanwhile, there is a piece of additional information where changes in the retail price of rice significantly cause changes in the price of grain at the farm level rather than vice versa. By implementing the IRFs method reveal the transmission’s duration of price change takes place in the short term and long term. Considering these findings, the policy of stabilizing rice prices at the mill and wholesale levels should be implemented immediately when the price of farmers' grain begins to change.

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