Macroeconomic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of early academic production

Este artículo consiste en un estudio exhaustivo de literatura académica sobre Macroeconomía y COVID-19. Para este fin, se revisa treinta y cuatro artículos publicados por la Serie de Working Papers del National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) de Estados Unidos durante los cuatro meses que siguieron al inicio de la pandemia (de mediados de marzo de 2020 hasta mediados de julio de 2020), bajo la categoría de “Efectos Macroeconómicos Agregados”. El presente análisis está principalmente enfocado en comprender la evolución conceptual que ha sido alimentada por la conciliación entre macroeconomía y epidemiología, y cómo ciertas herramientas del análisis macroeconómico contemporáneo han permitido construir una mejor comprensión del proceso epidemiológico y sus efectos sobre resultados macroeconómicos agregados. También se analiza algunas de las discusiones sobre políticas de contención óptima más importantes que han sido obtenidas de dicha evolución, en coherencia con las características metodológicas particulares incluidas por cada autor en su modelo, así como los hallazgos más relevantes obtenidos.

Book Review: The Great Reversal by Thomas Philippon

Thomas Philippon’s The Great Reversal: How America Gave Up on Free Markets is a remarkable piece of research that draws our attention to a timely and relevant issue: the rise of market power and its macroeconomic implications. The book documents the facts, offers a number of hypotheses to explain those facts, and discusses the policy interventions needed to remedy market power. This essay reviews the contribution of the book, especially the conceptual and empirical foundations that lead to the main conclusions. The main virtue of the book is to offer a wealth of facts and implications that highlight the different aspects of the evolution of market power. This essay also considers instances that permit an alternative viewpoint. First, I maintain that the reliance on concentration indices to measure market power can be misleading. Second, the essay argues that to date there is no evidence that bestows a different experience in the evolution of market power in Europe compared to the United States. Third, the book gives most air time to antitrust and merger review as the main cause. While antitrust is relevant, technological change is at least as, if not more, important for the observed rise of market power. This essay manifests that technological change has fundamental implications for welfare and therefore for policy intervention. (JEL D24, E22, G31, G34, K21, L13)

Macroeconomic Implications of Inequality and Income Risk

We explore the long-run relationship between income risk, inequality, and the macroeconomy in an overlapping-generations model in which households face uncertain streams of labor income and returns on their savings. To manage those risks, households can apportion their savings to a bond, whose return is safe and identical across households, and a productive asset, whose return is uncertain and can differ persistently across households. We find that greater polarization in households’ labor income and returns on their savings generally accentuates households’ demand for risk-free assets and the compensation they require for bearing risk, leading to higher measured income and wealth inequality, a lower risk-free real interest rate, and higher risk premiums. These findings suggest that the factors behind the observed rise in inequality over the past few decades might have contributed to the observed fall in the risk-free real interest rate and widening gap between the risk-free real interest rate and the rate of return on capital. We also find that the magnitude of the decline in the risk-free real interest rate and offsetting rise in risk premiums depend importantly on the source of income polarization, with the effects being especially large when greater inequality is caused by increased dispersion in returns on risky assets. Thus, the macroeconomic implications not only depend on the amount of inequality, but also the source of this inequality.

Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications

Using oil futures, we examine expectation formation and how it alters the macroeconomic transmission of shocks. Our empirical framework, where investors learn about the persistence of oil-price movements, successfully replicates the fluctuations in oil-price futures since the late 1990s. By embedding this learning mechanism in an estimated model, we document that an increase in the persistence of TFP-driven fluctuations in oil demand largely accounts for investors’ perceptions that oil-price movements became increasingly permanent during the 2000s. Learning alters the macroeconomic impact of shocks, making the responses time-dependent and conditional on perceptions of shocks’ likely persistence.

Financialization of the global economy: Macroeconomic implications and policy challenges for Ukraine

The acceleration of the global economy’s financialization with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the risks of financial markets volatility, boom and bust cycles, violation of price stability, and debt sustainability. In such conditions, the high degree of Ukraine economy’s external openness, significant amounts of external debt, and lack of domestic investment and credit resources raise the issue of external financial threats to the national economy. This study aims to identify the risks of financialization and debt accumulation across the globe, specify protective arrangements and vulnerabilities of Ukraine’s credit system to external shocks and develop a set of policy actions for global risks mitigation in Ukraine. To achieve this goal, available theoretical sources and policy studies were reviewed, and international databases of financial indicators have been analyzed. As a result, the underdevelopment of the financial system in Ukraine and insufficient use of the credit levers by the private sector are revealed, which impede economic growth but simultaneously mitigate the impact of external shocks in Ukraine’s economy. On the other hand, high external debt reliance is confirmed, which increases the risks of financialization and cross-border capital flows for Ukraine’s economy. A set of financial and organizational measures (targeted at eliminating credit and debt distortions in Ukraine and creating a financial basis for sustainable economic growth) are devised; they refer to development of the national capital market, fiscal policy adjustment, acceleration of the foreign direct investments inflows, shifts in the NBU’s monetary policy, and the management of foreign exchange reserves.