scholarly journals Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Political Unrest

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc F. Bellemare
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Political Unrest

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF THE WORLD FOOD PRICE INDEX ON SOME EAST-EUROPEAN ECONOMIES

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-287
Author(s):  
Corina Saman ◽  
Cecilia Alexandri
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Macroeconomic Implications ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

This paper deals with the dynamic response of exchange rates, inflation and agricultural foreign trade in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania to global food prices. We employ time-varying VARs with stochastic volatility to estimate the behaviour of these macroeconomic variables over the 2001M1–2015M12 period. The original contribution of this paper is that it captures the time variation and nonlinearities of the relationship between variables taking into account food price volatility and its macroeconomic implications. The main findings of the paper are: (i) high global food prices were transmitted to domestic economies causing pressure on inflation in the long run; (ii) in the short run the impact of a positive shock in international food price increases domestic inflation, depreci-ates the currency and reduces the agricultural trade; (iii) the vulnerabilities to global food prices are more pregnant for Romania and Bulgaria; (iv) the difference in the transmission of world prices is related to the different status of the countries as regards food and agricultural trade. The findings of the research would be significant for the governments to promote policies to help farmers respond to the rising of food prices by growing more and responding to export opportunities that may arise.

Food price volatility and socio-inequalities in household food insecurity during coronavirus disease-2019 lockdown in Nansana municipality, Wakiso district Uganda

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Buzigi ◽  
Stephen Onakuse
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Household Food Insecurity ◽  
Staple Food ◽  
Household Food

Abstract BackgroundThis study assessed staple food price volatility, food consumption scores (FCS) and prevalence of household food insecurity (HHFI) and its socio-inequalities during enforcing and lifting corona virus disease -2019 (COVID-19) lockdown in Nansana municipality, Uganda.MethodsA repeated households (HHs) based cross-sectional study was conducted in urban Nansana Municipality, Uganda. A total of 405 HHs (205 slum and 200 non-slum) were selected using stratified random sampling. Data on social demographics and FCS in the previous 7 days were collected using questionnaire-based telephone interviews with HH heads. Prices for staple foods was collected by asking food sellers from local markets. Mean staple food price differences between before COVID-19 lockdown and during enforcing or lifting the lockdown was tested by paired t test. A binary outcome of HHFI (FCS of 0-35) and food secure (FCS>35) HHs was created. The association between exposure variables and HHFI was tested using multivariate logistic regression analysis at a probability value of 5%.ResultsMean price of staple food significantly increased between before and during enforcing the COVID-19 lockdown (p <0.0001). Mean FCS during COVID-19 lockdown were at borderline for either slum (22.8) or non-slum (22.9) HHs, and were not significantly different from each other (p=0.06). During partial lifting of the lockdown, FCS among slum HHs were significantly lower at 20.1 (poor) compared to non-slum HHs at 22.7 (borderline) (p=0.01). The mean FCS was significantly higher at borderline (24.5) among HHs that received food aid compared to poor FCS (18.2) among slum HHs that did not receive food aid (p<0.0001). The prevalence of HHFI was high and not significantly different (p>0.05) between slum (94.6%) and non-slum (93.5%) HHs during COVID-19 lockdown. HHFI was higher in slum (98.5%) than non-slum (94%) HHs (p<0.05) on partial lifting of the lockdown. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) showed that being a wage earner and employed HH head was positively (AOR: 8.3, 95% CI: 1.9-36.2) and negatively (AOR: 0.07, CI: 0.02-0.2) associated with HHFI, respectively. During partial lifting of COVID-19 lockdown, slum HHs (AOR: 11.8, 95% CI: 1.5-91.3), female headed HHs (AOR: 11.9, 95%CI: 1.5-92.7), wage earners (AOR: 10.7, 95% CI: 1.4-82.9) and tenants (AOR: 4.0, 95% CI: 1.1- 14.7) were positively associated with HHFI. Conclusion Staple food prices increased during enforcing COVID-19 lockdown compared before lockdown. Food aid distribution during COVID-19 lockdown improved FCS among slum HHs, however, it did not prevent against slum HHFI.

scholarly journals Determinants of food price volatility in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 165-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ismail Olaleke Fasanya ◽  
Feyikunayo Olawepo
Keyword(s):  
Direct Effect ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Conditional Volatility ◽  
Lending Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Alternative Sources ◽  
Data Frequency

Abstract In this paper we examined the determinants of food price volatility in Nigeria using monthly data from January, 1997 to April, 2017. We employed the multivariate GARCH approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and the dynamics of volatility across these markets. In particular, the Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner (BEKK) model and the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model were used for estimation. The findings showed that information shocks originating in Consumer Price Indices (CPI), lending rate, exchange rate and oil market have a direct effect on the current conditional volatility in food market while the information shocks originating in food have a direct effect on the current conditional volatility in all the markets considered except for oil. These results were insensitive to changes in data frequency and different oil price specification. Hence, the government should encourage the use of alternative sources of energy to reduce the effect of high oil prices on food prices and provide soft agricultural credit scheme to farmers with a low lending rate through specialized banks.

Food Prices and Food Price Volatility

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald F. Larson
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Index Insurance ◽  
Contract Farming ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Terms Of Trade Volatility ◽  
Trade Volatility

This chapter examines food prices from 1900 to 2015. Despite growing populations, rising incomes, new technologies, globalization, and the emergence of commodities as an asset class, no trends are evident in food price levels or volatility. Still, food prices have averaged higher since 2010, harming the poor and raising fears that agricultural productivity growth has slowed. Consistently since 1900, food prices have been more volatile than the prices of manufactured goods and most other commodity groups. This relation drives terms-of-trade volatility, which slows economic growth. At the farm level, price volatility impedes investment and technology adoption, and encourages low-income livelihood strategies. Past policies to manage food prices have not worked and governments have shifted to policies aimed at mitigating the consequences of high and volatile food prices. Extending the reach of risk markets, warehouse receipt systems, index insurance, and contract farming can be useful policy components.

Book Reviews

2015 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 377-378
Keyword(s):  
Social Protection ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Jean Paul ◽  
The University

Finn Tarp of UNU-WIDER and University of Copenhagen reviews “The Economics of Food Price Volatility”, by Jean-Paul Chavas, David Hummels, and Brian D. Wright. The Econlit abstract of this book begins: “Nine papers, plus nine comments, present and assess recent research on central issues related to recent food price volatility. Papers discuss influences of agricultural technology on the size and importance of food price variability; corn production shocks in 2012 and beyond─implications for harvest volatility; biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility; the evolving relationships between agricultural and energy commodity prices─a shifting-mean vector autoregressive analysis; the question of bubble troubles─rational storage, mean reversion, and runs in commodity prices; bubbles, food prices, and speculation─evidence from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's daily large trader data files; food price volatility and domestic stabilization policies in developing countries; food price spikes, price insulation, and poverty; and trade insulation as social protection.” Chavas is Anderson-Bascom Professor of Agricultural and Applied Economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Hummels is Professor of Economics in the Krannert School of Management at Purdue University. Wright is Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California at Berkeley.

scholarly journals Volatility and Co‑movement: an Analysis of Food Commodity Prices in Nigeria

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 129-139
Author(s):  
Omotoso Oluseye Ogunmola ◽  
Abiodun Elijah Obayelu ◽  
Sakiru Oladele Akinbode
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Food Distribution ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Short Period ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Food Commodity

AbstractThis study explains volatility as a measure and interaction of the possible movement in a particular economic variable. Prices change rapidly in adjustment to market circumstances. Food prices hike experienced overyears has resulted in widespread menace which led to increase in food price volatility. However, volatility and co-movement had generally been lower for the past two decades than for the previous ones. Wide price movements over a short period of time connote high volatility, rendering the producers and consumers vulnerable. Excess volatility can be subjected to sector ineffectiveness and is commodity specific. Producers and processors are mostly concerned about increased price volatility, which greatly exposed them to unpredictable risks and uncertainty associated with price changes. This study examined the volatility and co-movement of food commodity prices in Nigeria using price series data on rice, maize, sorghum, cassava and yam for the period of 1966 to 2013. The data were analysed using Vector Autoregressive Model to forecast food price volatility and to examine the food commodity prices that Granger cause food price volatility in other food commodities. The GARCH regression model is used to estimate the magnitude of volatility which revealed that, food commodity prices exhibit high volatility and there is persistent increase in prices over the period of study. The Nigerian food commodity prices have experienced high fluctuations over the period; therefore, the study recommends proper storage facilities and infrastructure for the food distribution corporations in Nigeria.

Impact of food price volatility on child health and education attainment

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 223-243
Author(s):  
Nigar Zehra
Keyword(s):  
Child Health ◽  
Selection Bias ◽  
School Attendance ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Education Attainment ◽  
Child Immunization ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to find the impact of food price volatility on child health and education attainment in urban areas of Pakistan. This research also compares the two variables among the two time periods: the period of low volatile food prices (2014‒2015) and the period of high volatile food prices (2013‒2014). The rate of child immunization and the rate of child school attendance are used as proxies for child health and child education, respectively. Design/methodology/approach This study employs propensity score matching (PSM) technique introduced by Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983), to overcome the selection bias problem in the observational studies. Findings The closing part of the paper concludes that both the rate of child immunization and the rate of child school attendance are significantly poorer for the households of Pakistan in the control period (of high food price volatility) as compared to the treated period (of low food price volatility). After controlling the problem of selection bias through PSM technique, it is found that there is a further increase in the rate of child immunization and the rate of child school attendance. It proves that the data were biased before applying the matching technique. Originality/value This study lengthens the literature by identifying the impact of food price volatility on child health and education of urban households of Pakistan, using high frequency data of PSLM/HIES, with the help of semi-parametric technique of matching. This type of micro-level research has not been conducted (nationally or internationally) so far; therefore, it would possibly open a sphere for policy makers to implement the suitable policies. Peer review The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-04-2019-0275.

scholarly journals Food price volatility

2010 ◽  
Vol 365 (1554) ◽  
pp. 3023-3034 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. L. Gilbert ◽  
C. W. Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
High Food ◽  
Recent Period ◽  
Historical Experience ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Important Exception ◽  
Widespread View

The high food prices experienced over recent years have led to the widespread view that food price volatility has increased. However, volatility has generally been lower over the two most recent decades than previously. Variability over the most recent period has been high but, with the important exception of rice, not out of line with historical experience. There is weak evidence that grains price volatility more generally may be increasing but it is too early to say.

scholarly journals Food Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Factors: Evidence from GARCH and GARCH-X Estimates

2011 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Apergis ◽  
Anthony Rezitis
Keyword(s):  
Government Intervention ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Food Markets ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Food Market ◽  
Positive Effect

This article examines food price volatility in Greece and how it is affected by short-run deviations between food prices and macroeconomic factors. The methodology follows the GARCH and GARCH-X models. The results show that there exists a positive effect between the deviations and food price volatility. The results are highly important for producers and consumers because higher volatility augments the uncertainty in the food markets. Once the participants receive a signal that the food market is volatile, this might lead them to ask for increased government intervention in the allocation of investment resources and this could reduce overall welfare.

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