scholarly journals Real Estate, Economic Stability and the New Macro-Financial Policies

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 236
Author(s):  
José A. Carrasco-Gallego
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Financial Policies ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Technology Shock ◽  
Financial Shock

The influence of real estate on finance and the whole economy has captured significant attention, especially since the aftermath of the Great Recession, because of the potential of this sector to destabilize markets. This paper explores the other way around: housing markets’ capacity to stabilize the economy through different macroprudential policies facing several types of shocks to achieve financial stability as a driver of sustainability. Specifically, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is used to evaluate the effectiveness to stabilize the economy of different macroprudential tools based on the loan-to-value ratio for real estate, on the countercyclical capital buffer for the financial sector and a combination of both tools, facing a housing price shock, a technology shock and a financial shock. The model presents three types of agents (borrowers, entrepreneurs and banks) in an economy with a real estate market, a financial sector, a labor market and a production sector. The government can use different macroprudential policies to stabilize the economy, leaning against the wind of several shocks to achieve economic and financial sustainability. The assessment of the effectiveness of each policy shows that, in the case of a housing sector shock and a technology shock, the more effective policy is the one based on a countercyclical rule on the loan-to-value ratio for the real estate sector as a macroprudential tool. Furthermore, with a house price shock, if the macroprudential authority applies a macroprudential policy based on the countercyclical capital buffer, the shock may be exacerbated. Additionally, when there is a financial shock, the macroprudential authority may face a trade-off between several macro-financial policies depending on its objective. Therefore, it is not recommendable to automatically apply a macroprudential policy without a meticulous analysis of the nature of the shock that the economy is experimenting with and how different policies can stabilize or destabilize the different markets and, therefore, reach higher or lower sustainability.

scholarly journals Coordination Effects and Optimal Policy Choices of Macroprudential Policy and Monetary Policy

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Haifeng Pan ◽  
Dingsheng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Optimal Policy ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

Considering three monetary policy rules, together with two endogenous macroprudential policies that are credit constraints (loan to value, LTV) for households and counter-cyclical capital (capital requirement ratio, CRR) for bankers, this paper establishes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Based on the welfare analysis of different combinations of macroprudential rules and monetary policy rules, this paper identifies the optimal policy combinations and analyzes the coordination effects between macroprudential policies and monetary policies. The results show that no matter what kind of monetary policy rules is implemented, the introduction of macroprudential rules has improved the level of total social welfare. In the optimal “two pillars” framework of monetary policies and macroprudential rules, the main objective of monetary policy is to stabilize price inflation, and the macroprudential policy to be implemented is the CRR macroprudential policy. This combination can effectively promote the stability of the real estate market, financial market, and macroeconomy, while maximizing the improvement of total social welfare.

Financial openness, bank capital flows, and the effectiveness of macroprudential policies

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Hao Jin ◽  
Chen Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Open Economies ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

Abstract This paper quantitatively examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of macroprudential policies in open economies. We develop a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, where banks choose their funding sources (domestic vs. foreign deposits) and are subject to financial constraints. Our model predicts that banks reduce leverage in response to a macroprudential policy tightening, but increasingly rely on foreign funding. This endogenous shifts of funding composition significantly undermine the stabilizing effect and welfare gains of macroprudential policies. Our results also suggest macroprudential policies are less effective in financially more open economies, and optimal policy should take capital flows into consideration. Finally, we find empirical support for the model predictions in a group of developing and emerging economies.

scholarly journals Macroprudential Policy in a Heterogeneous Environment—An Application of Agent-Based Approach in Systemic Risk Modelling

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa ◽  
Mateusz Pipień
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Rbc Models ◽  
The Impact

Assessment of welfare effects of macroprudential policy seems the most important application of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework of macro-modelling. In particular, the DSGE-3D model, with three layers of default (3D), was developed and used by the European Systemic Risk Board and European Central Bank as a reference tool to formally model the financial cycle as well as to analyze effects of macroprudential policies. Despite the extreme importance of incorporating financial constraints in Real Business Cycle (RBC) models, the resulting DSGE-3D construct still embraces the representative agent idea, making serious analyses of diversity of economic entities impossible. In this paper, we present an alternative to DSGE modelling that seriously departs from the assumption of the representativeness of agents. Within an Agent Based Modelling (ABM) framework, we build an environment suitable for performing counterfactual simulations of the impact of macroprudential policy on the economy, financial system and society. We contribute to the existing literature by presenting an ABM model with broad insight into heterogeneity of agents. We show the stabilizing effects of macroprudential policies in the case of economic or financial distress.

scholarly journals Does the real estate market behavior predict the trust crisis in the financial sector? The case of the ECB and the Euro

Equilibrium ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 711-740
Author(s):  
Maryna Brychko ◽  
Tetyana Vasilyeva ◽  
Zuzana Rowland ◽  
Serhiy Lyeonov
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Market Behavior ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
European Central ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Primary Institutions

Research background: Based on the history of financial crises, real estate market behavior could be thought of as a key benchmark of trust shifts in the financial sector of the economy. Plunging real estate asset prices accompanied by the financial "bubbles" explosion could be viewed as the harbinger ? even the cause ? of the public trust crash in the financial sector. Purpose of the article: This study intends to assess the extent to which the real estate market behavior determinants, along with financial sector consumers' feelings, are able to predict trust crises in the financial sector, namely to its primary institutions ? European Central Bank and the Euro. Methods: In order to estimate the probability of a trust crisis in the financial sector, two logistic regression logit models were developed based on two types of dependent variables as they reflect trust violations in the financial system primary institutions ? net trust in European Central Bank (Model I) and net support for the Euro (Model II). The research was conducted on quarterly panel data of the EU countries from the euro area covering the period from 2000 to 2019. Logit regressions employed for data processing and analysis were performed in the computational system STATISTICA. Findings & value added: The logit-modeling results show that determinants of irrational real estate buyers' behavior are powerless in predicting the escalation of the trust crisis in the Euro. However, binary models of real estate market behavior could be successfully used to predict the probability of the trust crisis in the European Central Bank. The results show that real house price indices, price to income ratio, price to rent ratio, and rent prices accompanied by the financial sector consumers' feelings are statistically significant, providing the best distribution between the normal times and periods of trust crisis in the European Central Bank. Irrational real estate market behavior may indicate serious problems in the trust violations in the European Central Bank, and it should be a signal for policymakers to take actions towards more efficient financial and real estate market regulation following the behavioral approach.

scholarly journals The Role of Macroprudential Policy in Bank Housing Loans Portfolio Quality Assurance

2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 281-296
Author(s):  
Mirela Mitrašević
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Mortgage Loans ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Business Conditions ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The subject of this paper is the contemporary trend in residential real estate markets in European countries and their impact on the quality of banks’ housing loan portfolios. Due to the fact that these are the markets that still have not fully recovered from the previous financial crisis, and at the time of writing were exposed to significant uncertainty related to the effects of specific business conditions caused by COVID-19, the research on the risks related to these markets and tools which can mitigate their consequences are of paramount importance. Given the fact that the importance of monitoring the emergence of systemic risks in the financial system and the design of macroprudential tools for Bosnia and Herzegovina is yet to come, one of the aims of the paper is to present the results of the research on the effectiveness of certain macroprudential policy measures for mitigating the impact of price fluctuations in residential real estate markets. A special attention is paid to the challenges that the real estate market and mortgage loans have been facing during the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper provides a basis for future researches examining to which extent the applied macroprudential policy measures in some countries have been effective in hitherto unprecedented business conditions

Real Estate Market Developments and Financial Sector Soundness

2001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Hilbers ◽  
Qin Lei ◽  
Lisbeth Stausholm Zacho
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Real Estate Market

scholarly journals Synergies Between Monetary and Macroprudential Policies in Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (83) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ichiro Fukunaga ◽  
Manrique Saenz
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Monetary Policy Rule ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the Thai economy is used to explore the performance of alternative monetary and macroprudential policy rules when faced with shocks that directly impact the financial cycle. In this context, the model shows that a monetary policy focused on its traditional inflation and output objectives accompanied by a well targeted counter-cyclical macroprudential policy yields better macroeconomic outcomes than a lean-against-the-wind monetary policy rule under a wide range of assumptions.

scholarly journals Analysis on the Regulatory Effect of Financial Policies on China’s Real Estate Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 197
Author(s):  
Haisheng Hu
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Regulatory Effect ◽  
Financial Policies ◽  
Control Policies ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The Government ◽  
Stable Development

<p>To deal with the negative problems emerged in the rapidly developing real estate market in the recent years, the government of China has put forward some corresponding financial policies, which aimes to regulate the real estate market macroscopically. Based on this, this article analyzes the regulatory effect of financial policies on the real estate market. Starting with the necessity of macro-control policies and combining with the actual conditions, it expounds the financial policies adopted in China in recent years and the achieved results. Meanwhile, this article puts forward some specific strategies to strengthen the regulatory effect in order to promote the stable development of the real estate market.</p>

Spain

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Moss QC ◽  
Bob Wessels ◽  
Matthias Haentjens
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Bubble ◽  
International Financial Crisis ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Cost

The consequences of the international financial crisis that started in 2007 unveiled a real estate bubble crisis in Spain that left the majority of its financial sector on the verge of insolvency. National financial institutions had been financing the over-development of the real estate market for years, borrowing abroad to lend locally at an unsustainable pace. The moment the international interbank market dried up, Spanish financial entities were unable to refinance their debts and stopped financing the development and retail acquisition of housing. This happened at a time when the international sovereign context was extremely troublesome. Greece, Portugal, and Ireland were undergoing a rescue process, and Spain and Italy started experiencing a sharp rise in the spread of their bonds vis-à-vis the German Bundesbond. Spain’s debt-to-GDP ratio then was still low (considerably lower than that of Germany, France, or the UK), and yet the cost of financing was soaring, threating the very solvency of the nation. The reason for this threat was the over-indebtedness of the private sector, with special intensity in the case of the financial sector. The Spanish government realized that a recapitalization of the troubled financial entities was a precondition of its own survival.

scholarly journals Informality, Frictions, and Macroprudential Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (255) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moez Ben Hassine ◽  
Nooman Rebei
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Labor Search ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

We analyze the effects of macroprudential policies through the lens of an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to developing markets. In particular, we explicitly introduce informality in the labor and goods markets within a small open economy embedding financial frictions, nominal and real rigidities, labor search and matching, and an explicit banking sector. We use the estimated version of the model to run welfare analysis under optimized monetary and macroprudential rules. Results show that although informality reduces the efficiency of macroprudential policies following a convex fashion, combining the latter with an inflation targeting objective could be beneficial.

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