scholarly journals Macroprudential Policy in a Heterogeneous Environment—An Application of Agent-Based Approach in Systemic Risk Modelling

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa ◽  
Mateusz Pipień
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Rbc Models ◽  
The Impact

Assessment of welfare effects of macroprudential policy seems the most important application of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework of macro-modelling. In particular, the DSGE-3D model, with three layers of default (3D), was developed and used by the European Systemic Risk Board and European Central Bank as a reference tool to formally model the financial cycle as well as to analyze effects of macroprudential policies. Despite the extreme importance of incorporating financial constraints in Real Business Cycle (RBC) models, the resulting DSGE-3D construct still embraces the representative agent idea, making serious analyses of diversity of economic entities impossible. In this paper, we present an alternative to DSGE modelling that seriously departs from the assumption of the representativeness of agents. Within an Agent Based Modelling (ABM) framework, we build an environment suitable for performing counterfactual simulations of the impact of macroprudential policy on the economy, financial system and society. We contribute to the existing literature by presenting an ABM model with broad insight into heterogeneity of agents. We show the stabilizing effects of macroprudential policies in the case of economic or financial distress.

THE INTERNATIONAL IMPACT OF MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doriane Intungane
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Impact

The recent financial crisis started a global debate on the role of financial policies, which led to financial system reforms in many countries. These reforms mainly consisted of increasing the usage of macroprudential policies. This dissertation seeks to understand whether macroprudential policies in financially integrated countries reduced their vulnerability to the impact of external shocks. Chapter 2 empirically examines the impact of macroprudential policies on cross-border bilateral credit growth. Capital requirements and loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, in 15 lending countries and 34 borrowing countries between 2000 and 2014, are used in the analysis. The results show that in some countries, the increase of capital requirements is not effective in reducing international credit flows during periods of financial vulnerability. The impact of tightening LTV ratios is more heterogeneous across countries because LTV ratios are mainly used in the housing sector and not all countries change their LTV ratio frequently. Hence, cooperation across countries is necessary but also countries should make sure that the change of macroprudential policies targeting lenders and those targeting borrowers complement each other to avoid international leakages. Chapter 3 analyzes issues related to the international spillover of macroprudential policies through international banking activities using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous and time-varying macroprudential policies. The results show that a combination of capital requirements and LTV ratios is effective in reducing credit growth despite the existence of cross-border banking activities and heterogeneous implementation of capital requirements across countries. In addition, international coordination of capital requirements is also effective in reducing credit growth but less effective than a combination of capital requirements and LTV ratios. Chapter 4 focuses on the role of countercyclical LTV ratios in reducing transmission of shocks when international investors, holding domestic and foreign assets, face collateral constraint. Using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, the analysis demonstrates that time-varying LTV ratios can reduce the transmission of shocks.

scholarly journals Synergies Between Monetary and Macroprudential Policies in Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (83) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ichiro Fukunaga ◽  
Manrique Saenz
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Monetary Policy Rule ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the Thai economy is used to explore the performance of alternative monetary and macroprudential policy rules when faced with shocks that directly impact the financial cycle. In this context, the model shows that a monetary policy focused on its traditional inflation and output objectives accompanied by a well targeted counter-cyclical macroprudential policy yields better macroeconomic outcomes than a lean-against-the-wind monetary policy rule under a wide range of assumptions.

scholarly journals THE INTERNATIONAL IMPACT OF MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doriane Intungane
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Impact

The recent financial crisis started a global debate on the role of financial policies, which led to financial system reforms in many countries. These reforms mainly consisted of increasing the usage of macroprudential policies. This dissertation seeks to understand whether macroprudential policies in financially integrated countries reduced their vulnerability to the impact of external shocks. Chapter 2 empirically examines the impact of macroprudential policies on cross-border bilateral credit growth. Capital requirements and loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, in 15 lending countries and 34 borrowing countries between 2000 and 2014, are used in the analysis. The results show that in some countries, the increase of capital requirements is not effective in reducing international credit flows during periods of financial vulnerability. The impact of tightening LTV ratios is more heterogeneous across countries because LTV ratios are mainly used in the housing sector and not all countries change their LTV ratio frequently. Hence, cooperation across countries is necessary but also countries should make sure that the change of macroprudential policies targeting lenders and those targeting borrowers complement each other to avoid international leakages. Chapter 3 analyzes issues related to the international spillover of macroprudential policies through international banking activities using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous and time-varying macroprudential policies. The results show that a combination of capital requirements and LTV ratios is effective in reducing credit growth despite the existence of cross-border banking activities and heterogeneous implementation of capital requirements across countries. In addition, international coordination of capital requirements is also effective in reducing credit growth but less effective than a combination of capital requirements and LTV ratios. Chapter 4 focuses on the role of countercyclical LTV ratios in reducing transmission of shocks when international investors, holding domestic and foreign assets, face collateral constraint. Using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, the analysis demonstrates that time-varying LTV ratios can reduce the transmission of shocks.

scholarly journals Informality, Frictions, and Macroprudential Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (255) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moez Ben Hassine ◽  
Nooman Rebei
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Labor Search ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

We analyze the effects of macroprudential policies through the lens of an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to developing markets. In particular, we explicitly introduce informality in the labor and goods markets within a small open economy embedding financial frictions, nominal and real rigidities, labor search and matching, and an explicit banking sector. We use the estimated version of the model to run welfare analysis under optimized monetary and macroprudential rules. Results show that although informality reduces the efficiency of macroprudential policies following a convex fashion, combining the latter with an inflation targeting objective could be beneficial.

Financial openness, bank capital flows, and the effectiveness of macroprudential policies

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Hao Jin ◽  
Chen Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Open Economies ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

Abstract This paper quantitatively examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of macroprudential policies in open economies. We develop a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, where banks choose their funding sources (domestic vs. foreign deposits) and are subject to financial constraints. Our model predicts that banks reduce leverage in response to a macroprudential policy tightening, but increasingly rely on foreign funding. This endogenous shifts of funding composition significantly undermine the stabilizing effect and welfare gains of macroprudential policies. Our results also suggest macroprudential policies are less effective in financially more open economies, and optimal policy should take capital flows into consideration. Finally, we find empirical support for the model predictions in a group of developing and emerging economies.

scholarly journals Coordination Effects and Optimal Policy Choices of Macroprudential Policy and Monetary Policy

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Haifeng Pan ◽  
Dingsheng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Optimal Policy ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

Considering three monetary policy rules, together with two endogenous macroprudential policies that are credit constraints (loan to value, LTV) for households and counter-cyclical capital (capital requirement ratio, CRR) for bankers, this paper establishes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Based on the welfare analysis of different combinations of macroprudential rules and monetary policy rules, this paper identifies the optimal policy combinations and analyzes the coordination effects between macroprudential policies and monetary policies. The results show that no matter what kind of monetary policy rules is implemented, the introduction of macroprudential rules has improved the level of total social welfare. In the optimal “two pillars” framework of monetary policies and macroprudential rules, the main objective of monetary policy is to stabilize price inflation, and the macroprudential policy to be implemented is the CRR macroprudential policy. This combination can effectively promote the stability of the real estate market, financial market, and macroeconomy, while maximizing the improvement of total social welfare.

External Shocks and Their Transmission Channels in Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

2022 ◽  
pp. 097491012110673
Author(s):  
Titus Ayobami Ojeyinka ◽  
Dauda Olalekan Yinusa
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Transmission Channels ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Trade And Exchange ◽  
The Impact

The study examines the sources of external shocks and investigates their transmission channels in Nigeria using the trade-weighted variables from the country’s five top trading partners. Based on the assumption of the small open economy model, the study adopts the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model on quarterly data between 1981 and 2018 using the Bayesian estimation technique. Findings from the study reveal that external shocks have a temporary and short-lived effect on the Nigerian economy. In addition, the article shows that oil price, foreign output, and foreign inflation shock have positive impacts on output gap and inflation, while the impact of foreign interest rate shock on the output gap and inflation is negative and not significant. The study also reveals that external shocks collectively explain 86% and 39%of total fluctuations in the output gap and inflation, respectively. Lastly, the study finds that external shocks transmit to the Nigerian economy via different channels. The study, therefore, concludes that terms of trade and exchange rate channels are the dominant transmitters of external shocks in Nigeria. Based on the findings from the study, important policy implications are highlighted.

MACRO- AND MICROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES: SWEET AND LOWDOWN IN A CREDIT NETWORK AGENT-BASED MODEL

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Ermanno Catullo ◽  
Federico Giri ◽  
Mauro Gallegati
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Individual Choices ◽  
Credit Network

The paper presents an agent-based model reproducing a stylized credit network that evolves endogenously through the individual choices of firms and banks. We introduce in this framework a financial stability authority in order to test the effects of different prudential policy measures designed to improve the resilience of the economic system. Simulations show that a combination of micro- and macroprudential policies reduces systemic risk but at the cost of increasing banks’ capital volatility. Moreover, the agent-based methodology allows us to implement an alternative meso regulatory framework that takes into consideration the connections between firms and banks. This policy targets only the more connected banks, increasing their capital requirement in order to reduce the diffusion of local shocks. Our results support the idea that the mesoprudential policy is able to reduce systemic risk without affecting the stability of banks’ capital structure.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of external shocks on economy of Ukraine: DSGE approach

Ekonomika ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-83
Author(s):  
Olena Bazhenova ◽  
Yuliya Bazhenova
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
General Equilibrium Model ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
The World ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
The Impact

The paper explores the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study the impact of external shocks on the economy of Ukraine. The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is constructed for a small open economy that includes households, firms (domestic manufacturers and importers), government, the National Bank and external sector. The model assumes the new-Keynesian approach that includes the so-called “rigidities” of prices and wages, the existence of the households’ consumption habits and investments with adjustment costs. Also, it takes into account the country’s significant dependence on mineral products imports. All goods in the economy are divided into the domestic ones (that are exported and consumed in the country), imports and mineral products. So the purpose of the model is to study the impact of external shocks on the economy of Ukraine, such as a positive shock in world output, a positive shock in the world aggregate demand, a positive shock in the world interest rate, and a positive shock in world prices.

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