scholarly journals Monitoring the Responses of Deciduous Forest Phenology to 2000–2018 Climatic Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 2806
Author(s):  
Kevin Bórnez ◽  
Aleixandre Verger ◽  
Adrià Descals ◽  
Josep Peñuelas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Deciduous Forest ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Deciduous Forests ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Phenological Metrics ◽  
The Impact

Monitoring the phenological responses of deciduous forests to climate is important, due to the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events associated with climate change and global warming, which will in turn affect vegetation seasonality. We investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of the response of deciduous forests to climatic anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, using satellite-derived phenological metrics from the Copernicus Global Land Service Leaf Area Index, and multisource climatic datasets for 2000–2018 at resolutions of 0.1°. Thereafter, we assessed the impact of extreme heatwaves and droughts on this deciduous forest phenology. We assumed that changes in the deciduous forest phenology in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 2000–2018 were monotonic, and that temperature and precipitation were the main climatic drivers. Analyses of partial correlations of phenological metrics with the timing of the start of the season (SoS), end of the season (EoS), and climatic variables indicated that changes in preseason temperature played a stronger role than precipitation in affecting the interannual variability of SoS anomalies: the higher the temperature, the earlier the SoS in most deciduous forests in the Northern Hemisphere (mean correlation coefficient of –0.31). Correlations between the SoS and temperature were significantly negative in 57% of the forests, and significantly positive in 15% of the forests (P < 0.05). Both temperature and precipitation contributed to the advance and delay of the EoS. A later EoS was significantly correlated with a positive Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the regional scale (~30% of deciduous forests). The timings of the EoS and SoS shifted by > 20 d in response to heatwaves throughout most of Europe in 2003, and in the United States of America in 2012. This study contributes to improve our understanding of the phenological responses of deciduous forests in the Northern Hemisphere to climate change and extreme climate events.

scholarly journals An Improved Conceptual Model Quantifying the Effect of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Vegetation Change in Arid Regions

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 2110
Author(s):  
Yu ◽  
Yang ◽  
Li ◽  
Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Arid Regions ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Area Index ◽  
The Impact

Vegetation shows a greening trend on the global scale in the past decades, which has an important effect on the hydrological cycle, and thus quantitative interpretation of the causes for vegetation change is of great benefit to understanding changes in ecology, climate, and hydrology. Although the Donohue13 model, a simple conceptual model based on gas exchange theory, provides an effective tool to interpret the greening trend, it cannot be used to evaluate the impact from land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the regional scale, whose importance to vegetation change has been demonstrated in a large number of studies. Hence, we have improved the Donohue13 model by taking into account the change in vegetation cover ratio due to LULCC, and applied this model to the Yarkand Oasis in the arid region of northwest China. The estimated change trend in leaf area index (LAI) is 1.20%/year from 2001 to 2017, which accounts for approximately half of the observed (2.31%/year) by the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS). Regarding the causes for vegetation greening, the contributions of: (1) LULCC; (2) atmospheric CO2 concentration; and (3) vapor pressure deficit were: (1) 88.3%; (2) 40.0%; and (3) −28.3%, respectively, which reveals that the largest contribution was from LULCC, which is probably driven by increased total water availability in whole oasis with a constant transpiration in vegetation area. The improved Donohue13 model, a simple but physics-based model, can partially explain the impact of factors related to climate change and anthropogenic activity on vegetation change in arid regions. It can be further combined with the Budyko hypothesis to establish a framework for quantifying the changes in coupled response of vegetation and hydrological processes to environment changes.

scholarly journals Relative snowpack response to elevation, temperature and precipitation in the Crown of the Continent region of North America 1980-2013

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0248736
Author(s):  
Len Broberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Watershed Scale ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Crown Of The Continent

Water availability in western Canada and the United States is dependent on the accumulation of snowpack in the montane regions and threatened by increased winter temperature and more precipitation as rain linked to climate change. In order to make reasoned decisions to adapt to climate change managers require knowledge of the role of temperature and precipitation in SWE development and data to distinguish the relative retention response of snowpack regions to expected temperature and precipitation regime shifts at the watershed scale. Using the Daymet interpolated 1 km2 dataset, effects of elevation, temperature (Tmax, Tmin and Tavg) and precipitation on April 1 SWE in the Crown of the Continent were tested by linear regression and Kendall correlation. Changes in Daymet estimated snow water equivalent (SWE) in response to increased temperatures and changes in precipitation were estimated in two ways: 1) comparing April 1SWE in the 11 warmest (mean Tmax February) and driest (mean precipitation January to March) years with the 22 cooler/wetter years 1981–2013 and 2) SWE retention from April 1 to June 1 over the period 1980 to 2013 across 120 watersheds in a major continental headwater region, the Crown of the Continent of North America. Historical analysis of period warm year April 1 SWE was assumed to indicate the recent impact of warmer winter temperatures. Changes in snowpack April 1 to June 1 reflected likely effects on peak runoff and were, therefore, also relevant for future climate change adaptation considerations. Winter (JFM) precipitation proved more influential than temperature in shaping April 1 SWE response at the regional scale. Of the three factors, elevation was most positively associated with April 1 SWE at the watershed scale. Temperature and precipitation influenced SWE accumulation and persistence at the watershed scale, but higher precipitation was more closely associated with higher April 1 SWE retention. Ranking of watershed snowpack retention in warm and dry years, combined with spring snowpack retention offers data to assist identification of watersheds with greatest snowpack persistence in the face of anticipated climate change effects.

scholarly journals Response of altitudinal vegetation belts of the Tianshan Mountains in northwestern China to climate change during 1989–2015

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Zhang ◽  
Lu-yu Liu ◽  
Yi Liu ◽  
Man Zhang ◽  
Cheng-bang An
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Forest Tree ◽  
Tianshan Mountains ◽  
Northwestern China ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Altitudinal Belts ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWithin the mountain altitudinal vegetation belts, the shift of forest tree lines and subalpine steppe belts to high altitudes constitutes an obvious response to global climate change. However, whether or not similar changes occur in steppe belts (low altitude) and nival belts in different areas within mountain systems remain undetermined. It is also unknown if these, responses to climate change are consistent. Here, using Landsat remote sensing images from 1989 to 2015, we obtained the spatial distribution of altitudinal vegetation belts in different periods of the Tianshan Mountains in Northwestern China. We suggest that the responses from different altitudinal vegetation belts to global climate change are different. The changes in the vegetation belts at low altitudes are spatially different. In high-altitude regions (higher than the forest belts), however, the trend of different altitudinal belts is consistent. Specifically, we focused on analyses of the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on the nival belts, desert steppe belts, and montane steppe belts. The results demonstrated that the temperature in the study area exhibited an increasing trend, and is the main factor of altitudinal vegetation belts change in the Tianshan Mountains. In the context of a significant increase in temperature, the upper limit of the montane steppe in the eastern and central parts will shift to lower altitudes, which may limit the development of local animal husbandry. The montane steppe in the west, however, exhibits the opposite trend, which may augment the carrying capacity of pastures and promote the development of local animal husbandry. The lower limit of the nival belt will further increase in all studied areas, which may lead to an increase in surface runoff in the central and western regions.

scholarly journals Compensation between Resolved Wave Driving and Parameterized Orographic Gravity Wave Driving of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation and Its Response to Climate Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (14) ◽  
pp. 5601-5610 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Sigmond ◽  
Theodore G. Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Gravity Wave ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Wave Drag ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Remarkable Degree ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Following recent findings, the interaction between resolved (Rossby) wave drag and parameterized orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD) is investigated, in terms of their driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), in a comprehensive climate model. To this end, the parameter that effectively determines the strength of OGWD in present-day and doubled CO2 simulations is varied. The authors focus on the Northern Hemisphere during winter when the largest response of the BDC to climate change is predicted to occur. It is found that increases in OGWD are to a remarkable degree compensated by a reduction in midlatitude resolved wave drag, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC. This compensation is also found for the response to climate change: changes in the OGWD contribution to the BDC response to climate change are compensated by opposite changes in the resolved wave drag contribution to the BDC response to climate change, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC response to climate change. By contrast, compensation does not occur at northern high latitudes, where resolved wave driving and the associated downwelling increase with increasing OGWD, both for the present-day climate and the response to climate change. These findings raise confidence in the credibility of climate model projections of the strengthened BDC.

scholarly journals Impacts of Storm Surges on a Changing Climate: a Global Bibliometric Analysis of the Coastal Zone

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karine Bastos Leal ◽  
Luís Eduardo de Souza Robaina ◽  
André de Souza De Lima
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bibliometric Analysis ◽  
Coastal Zone ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
R Package ◽  
The United States ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Coastal Research

Abstract An increase in the global mean sea is predicted during the 21st century as a consequence of global average temperature projections. In addition, changes in the strength of atmospheric cyclonic storms may alter the development of storm surges, exacerbating the risks to coastal communities. Based on the fact that the interest and range of papers are growing on this topic, this study aims to present the global scientific production status of studies that have correlated climate change and the impact of storm surges on the coastal zone leading to erosion and flooding (inundation) via a bibliometric analysis. We analyzed 429 papers published in journals between 1991 and February 2021 from the Scopus database. Through the VOSviewer and Bibliometrix R package, we describe the most relevant countries, affiliations, journals, authors, and keywords. Our results demonstrate that there has been an exponential growth in the research topic, and that authors from the United States and the United Kingdom are the most prolific. Among the 1454 authors found, 10 researchers published at least 5 papers on the topic and obtained at least 453 citations in the period. The most represented journals were the Journal of Coastal Research, Climatic Change, and Natural Hazards. We also found, and discuss, the lack of standardization in the choice of keywords, of which climate change, storm surge, and sea level rise are the most frequent. Finally, we have written a guide to facilitate the authors' bibliographic review.

The shifting of climate types: manifestation to phenology and ecosystems structure

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunta Kalvāne ◽  
Andis Kalvāns ◽  
Agrita Briede ◽  
Ilmārs Krampis ◽  
Dārta Kaupe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Breaking Point ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Climate Type ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Spatial Changes ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;According to the K&amp;#246;ppen climate classification, almost the entire area of Latvia belongs to the same climate type, Dfb, which is characterized by humid continental climates with warm (sometimes hot) summers and cold winters.&amp;#160; In the last decades whether conditions on the western coast of Latvia more characterized by temperate maritime climates. In this area there has been a transition (and still ongoing) to the climate type Cfb.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Temporal and spatial changes of temperature and precipitation regime have been examined in whole territory to identify the breaking point of climate type shifts. We used two type of climatological data sets: gridded daily temperature from the E-OBS data set version 21.0e (Cornes et al., 2018) and direct observations from meteorological stations (data source: Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre). The temperature and precipitation regime have changed significantly in the last century - seasonal and regional differences can be observed in the territory of Latvia.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We have digitized and analysed more than 47 thousand phenological records, fixed by volunteers in period 1970-2018. Study has shown that significant seasonal changes have taken place across the Latvian landscape due to climate change (Kalv&amp;#257;ne and Kalv&amp;#257;ns, 2021). The largest changes have been recorded for the unfolding (BBCH11) and flowering (BBCH61) phase of plants&amp;#160;&amp;#8211; almost 90% of the data included in the database demonstrate a negative trend. The winter of 1988/1989 may be considered as breaking point, it has been common that many phases have begun sooner (particularly spring phases), while abiotic autumn phases have been characterized by late years.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Study gives an overview aboutclimate change (also climate type shift) impacts on ecosystems in Latvia, particularly to forest and semi-natural grasslands and temporal and spatial changes of vegetation structure and distribution areas.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This study was carried out within the framework of the Impact of Climate Change on Phytophenological Phases and Related Risks in the Baltic Region (No. 1.1.1.2/VIAA/2/18/265) ERDF project and the Climate change and sustainable use of natural resources&amp;#160;institutional research grant&amp;#160;of the University of Latvia (No. AAP2016/B041//ZD2016/AZ03).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Cornes, R. C., van der Schrier, G., van den Besselaar, E. J. M. and Jones, P. D.: An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123(17), 9391&amp;#8211;9409, doi:10.1029/2017JD028200, 2018.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Kalv&amp;#257;ne, G. and Kalv&amp;#257;ns, A.(2021): Phenological trends of multi-taxonomic groups in Latvia, 1970-2018, Int. J. Biometeorol., doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-02068-8, 2021.&lt;/p&gt;

Vulnerability of coastal areas to increased aquifer saturation due to climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre Gauvain ◽  
Ronan Abhervé ◽  
Jean-Raynald de Dreuzy ◽  
Luc Aquilina ◽  
Frédéric Gresselin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Like in other relatively flat coastal areas, flooding by aquifer overflow is a recurring problem on the western coast of Normandy (France). Threats are expected to be enhanced by the rise of the sea level and to have critical consequences on the future development and management of the territory. The delineation of the increased saturation areas is a required step to assess the impact of climate change locally. Preliminary models showed that vulnerability does not result only from the sea side but also from the continental side through the modifications of the hydrological regime.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We investigate the processes controlling these coastal flooding phenomena by using hydrogeological models calibrated at large scale with an innovative method reproducing the hydrographic network. Reference study sites selected for their proven sensitivity to flooding have been used to validate the methodology and determine the influence of the different geomorphological configurations frequently encountered along the coastal line.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Hydrogeological models show that the rise of the sea level induces an irregular increase in coastal aquifer saturations extending up to several kilometers inland. Back-littoral channels traditionally used as a large-scale drainage system against high tides limits the propagation of aquifer saturation upstream, provided that channels are not dominantly under maritime influence. High seepage fed by increased recharge occurring in climatic extremes may extend the vulnerable areas and further limit the effectiveness of the drainage system. Local configurations are investigated to categorize the influence of the local geological and geomorphological structures and upscale it at the regional scale.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Interactions between Climate Change and Complex Topography Drive Observed Streamflow Changes in the Colorado River Basin

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 1637-1650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurt C. Solander ◽  
Katrina E. Bennett ◽  
Sean W. Fleming ◽  
David S. Gutzler ◽  
Emily M. Hopkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Food Resource ◽  
The United States ◽  
Colorado River Basin ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Strong Relation ◽  
High Elevations

Abstract The Colorado River basin (CRB) is one of the most important watersheds for energy, water, and food security in the United States. CRB water supports 15% of U.S. food production, more than 50 GW of electricity capacity, and one of the fastest growing populations in the United States. Energy–water–food nexus impacts from climate change are projected to increase in the CRB. These include a higher incidence of extreme events, widespread snow-to-rain regime shifts, and a higher frequency and magnitude of climate-driven disturbances. Here, we empirically show how the historical annual streamflow maximum and hydrograph centroid timing relate to temperature, precipitation, and snow. In addition, we show how these hydroclimatic relationships vary with elevation and how the elevation dependence has changed over this historical observational record. We find temperature and precipitation have a relatively weak relation (|r| &lt; 0.3) to interannual variations in streamflow timing and extremes at low elevations (&lt;1500 m), but a relatively strong relation (|r| &gt; 0.5) at high elevations (&gt;2300 m) where more snow occurs in the CRB. The threshold elevation where this relationship is strongest (|r| &gt; 0.5) is moving uphill at a rate of up to 4.8 m yr−1 (p = 0.11) and 6.1 m yr−1 (p = 0.01) for temperature and precipitation, respectively. Based on these findings, we hypothesize where warming and precipitation-related streamflow changes are likely to be most severe using a watershed-scale vulnerability map to prioritize areas for further research and to inform energy, water, and food resource management in the CRB.

scholarly journals Taken by Storm: Hurricanes, Migrant Networks, and US Immigration

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 250-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parag Mahajan ◽  
Dean Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
International Migration ◽  
The United States ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Migrant Networks ◽  
Disaster Impacts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Natural Disaster Impacts ◽  
Us Immigration

Do negative shocks in origin countries encourage or inhibit international migration? What roles do networks play in modifying out-migration responses? The answers to these questions are not theoretically obvious, and past empirical findings are equivocal. We examine the impact of hurricanes on a quarter century of international migration to the United States. Hurricanes increase migration to the United States, with the effect’s magnitude increasing in the size of prior migrant stocks. We provide new insights into how networks facilitate legal, permanent US immigration in response to origin country shocks, a matter of growing importance as climate change increases natural disaster impacts. (JEL F22, J15, Q54, Z13)

scholarly journals Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Manashi Paul ◽  
Sijal Dangol ◽  
Vitaly Kholodovsky ◽  
Amy R. Sapkota ◽  
Masoud Negahban-Azar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.

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