scholarly journals Mapping Invasion Potential of the Pest from Central Asia, Trypophloeus klimeschi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae), in the Shelter Forests of Northwest China

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 242
Author(s):  
Hang Ning ◽  
Ming Tang ◽  
Hui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Northern Edge ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Temperature and precipitation are the two main factors constraining the current distribution of Trypophloeus klimeschi. Currently, T. klimeschi is mainly distributed in South Xinjiang, where it occurs between the southern edge of the Tianshan Mountains and northern edge of the Tarim Basin. In addition, Dunhuang in northern Gansu also provide suitable habitats for this bark beetle. Two other potential areas for this species are in or near the cities of Alaer and Korla. Under future climate scenarios, its total suitable area is projected to increase markedly over time. Among the climate scenarios, the distribution expanded the most under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5). Jiuquan in Gansu is projected to become a suitable area in the 2030s. Subsequently, T. klimeschi is expected to enter western Inner Mongolia along the Hexi Corridor in the 2050s. In southeastern Xinjiang, however, the suitable area in northern Ruoqiang and most areas of Korla may decrease. By the 2050s, it is large enough to pose substantial challenges for forest managers across northern China. Our findings provide information that can be used to monitor T. klimeschi populations, host health, and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese White Pine Beetle Dendroctonus armandi in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 544
Author(s):  
Hang Ning ◽  
Ming Tang ◽  
Hui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Central China ◽  
Qinling Mountains ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Dendroctonus armandi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytidae) is a bark beetle native to China and is the most destructive forest pest in the Pinus armandii woodlands of central China. Due to ongoing climate warming, D. armandi outbreaks have become more frequent and severe. Here, we used Maxent to model its current and future potential distribution in China. Minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the two major factors constraining the current distribution of D. armandi. Currently, the suitable area of D. armandi falls within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. The total suitable area is 15.83 × 104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area is projected to increase slightly, while remaining within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. Among the climate scenarios, the distribution expanded the most under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5). Under all assumptions, the highly suitable area is expected to increase over time; the increase will occur in southern Shaanxi, northwest Hubei, and northeast Sichuan Provinces. By the 2050s, the highly suitable area is projected to increase by 0.82 × 104 km2. By the 2050s, the suitable climatic niche for D. armandi will increase along the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains, posing a major challenge for forest managers. Our findings provide information that can be used to monitor D. armandi populations, host health, and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.

scholarly journals A hydrological modelling-based approach for vulnerable area identification under changing climate scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonam S. Dash ◽  
Dipaka R. Sena ◽  
Uday Mandal ◽  
Anil Kumar ◽  
Gopal Kumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Vulnerable Area ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Streamflow Data ◽  
Critical Zones

Abstract The hydrologic behaviour of the Brahmani River basin (BRB) (39,633.90 km2), India was assessed for the base period (1970–1999) and future climate scenarios (2050) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Monthly streamflow data of 2000–2009 and 2010–2012 was used for calibration and validation, respectively, and performed satisfactorily with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (ENS) of 0.52–0.55. The projected future climatic outcomes of the HadGEM2-ES model indicated that minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation may increase by 1.11–3.72 °C, 0.27–2.89 °C, and 16–263 mm, respectively, by 2050. The mean annual streamflow over the basin may increase by 20.86, 11.29, 4.45, and 37.94% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the sediment yield is likely to increase by 23.34, 10.53, 2.45, and 27.62% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, signifying RCP 8.5 to be the most adverse scenario for the BRB. Moreover, a ten-fold increase in environmental flow (defined as Q90) by the mid-century period is expected under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The vulnerable area assessment revealed that the increase in moderate and high erosion-prone regions will be more prevalent in the mid-century. The methodology developed herein could be successfully implemented for identification and prioritization of critical zones in worldwide river basins.

scholarly journals Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Six Subalpine Tree Species in South Korea Using a Multi-Model Ensemble Approach

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Sanghyuk Lee ◽  
Huicheul Jung ◽  
Jaeyong Choi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Current Time ◽  
Ensemble Approach ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is recognized as a major threat to global biodiversity and has already caused extensive regional extinction. In particular danger are the plant habitats in subalpine zones, which are more vulnerable to climate change. Evergreen coniferous trees in South Korean subalpine zones are currently designated as a species that need special care given their conservation value, but the reason for their decline and its seriousness remains unclear. This research estimates the potential land suitability (LS) of the subalpine zones in South Korea for six coniferous species vulnerable to climate change in the current time (1970–2000) and two future periods, the 2050s (2041–2060) and the 2070s (2061–2080). We analyze the ensemble-averaged loss of currently suitable habitats in the future, using nine species distribution models (SDMs). Korean arborvitae (Thuja koraiensis) and Khingan fir (Abies nephrolepis) are two species expected to experience significant habitat losses in 2050 (−59.5% under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 to −65.9% under RCP 8.5 and −56.3% under RCP 4.5 to −57.7% under RCP 8.5, respectively). High extinction risks are estimated for these species, due to the difficulty of finding other suitable habitats with high LS. The current habitat of Korean fir (Abies koreana), listed as a threatened species on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, is expected to decrease by −23.9% (RCP 4.5) to −28.4% (RCP 8.5) and −36.5% (RCP 4.5) to −36.7% (RCP 8.5) in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. Still, its suitable habitats are also estimated to expand geographically toward the northern part of the Baekdudaegan mountain range. In the context of forest management and adaptation planning, the multi-model ensemble approach to mapping future shifts in the range of subalpine tree species under climate change provides robust information about the potential distribution of threatened and endanger

scholarly journals High Spatial Resolution Climate Scenarios to Analyze Madrid Building Energy Demand

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto San José ◽  
Juan Luis Pérez ◽  
Rosa María Gonzalez-Barras
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
The Impact

We have modelled the energy consumption of prototype and real buildings under present and future climatic conditions with the EnergyPlus model to develop a better understanding of the relationship between changing climate conditions and energy demand. We have produced detailed meteorological information with 50 meters of spatial resolution through dynamical downscaling process combining regional, urban and computational fluid dynamics models which include the effects of the buildings on urban wind patterns. The city of Madrid has been chosen for our experiment. The impact on energy demand and their respective economic cost are calculated for year 2100 versus 2011 based on two IPCC climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 (stabilization of emissions) and RCP 8.5 (not reduction of emissions). Findings show that climate change will have a significant impact on the energy demand for buildings. Space heating demand will be increased by the RCP 4.5 and cooling demand will be increased for the RCP 8.5 in the analysed buildings.

scholarly journals Reliability of Rain-Fed Maize Yield Simulation Using LARS-WG Derived CMIP5 Climate Data at Mount Makulu, Zambia

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 275
Author(s):  
Charles Bwalya Chisanga ◽  
Elijah Phiri ◽  
Vernon R. N. Chinene
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change on crop growth and yield can be predicted using crop simulation models. A study was conducted to assess the reliability and uncertainty of simulated maize yield for the near future in 2050s at Mount Makulu (latitude = 15.550o S, longitude = 28.250o E, altitude = 1213 m), Zambia. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to generate baseline (1980-2010) and future (2040-2069) climate scenarios for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Results showed that mean temperature would increase by 2.09oC (RCP 4.5) and 2.56oC (RCP 8.5) relative to the baseline (1980-2010). However, rainfall would reduce by 9.84% (RCP 4.5) and 11.82% (RCP 8.5). The CERES-Maize model simulated results for rainfed maize growth showed that the simulated parameters; days after planting (DAP), biomass and grain yield would reduce from 2040-2069/1980-2010 under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The LARS-WG was successfully for our location can be used in generating climate scenarios for impact studies to inform policy, stakeholders and decision makers. Adaptation strategies to mitigate for the potential impact of climate change includes several sowing dates, cultivar selection that are efficient at using nitrogen fertilizer and planting new cultivars breeds that will thrive under low root soil water content and higher temperatures.

scholarly journals Neglected and Underutilized Fruit Species in Sri Lanka: Prioritisation and Understanding the Potential Distribution under Climate Change

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sujith S. Ratnayake ◽  
Lalit Kumar ◽  
Champika S. Kariyawasam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Fruit Species ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Food Security And Nutrition ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Neglected and underutilized fruit species (NUFS) can make an important contribution to the economy, food security and nutrition requirement for Sri Lanka. Identifying suitable areas for cultivation of NUFS is of paramount importance to deal with impending climate change issues. Nevertheless, limited studies have been carried out to assess the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of NUFS. Therefore, we examined the potential range changes of NUFS in a tropical climate using a case study from Sri Lanka. We prioritized and modeled the potentially suitable areas for four NUFS, namely Aegle marmelos, Annona muricata, Limonia acidissima and Tamarindus indica under current and projected climates (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for 2050 and 2070 using the maximum entropy (Maxent) species distribution modeling (SDM) approach. Potentially suitable areas for NUFS are predicted to decrease in the future under both scenarios. Out of the four NUFS, T. indica appears to be at the highest risk due to reduction in potential areas that are suitable for its growth under both emissions scenarios. The predicted suitable area reductions of this species for 2050 and 2070 are estimated as >75% compared to the current climate. A region of potentially higher climatic suitability was found around mid-county for multiple NUFS, which is also predicted to decrease under projected climate change. Further, the study identified high-potential agro-ecological regions (AERs) located in the mid-country’s wet and intermediate zones as the most suitable areas for promoting the cultivation of NUFS. The findings show the potential for incorporating predictive modeling into the management of NUFS under projected climate change. This study highlights the requirements of climate change adaptation strategies and focused research that can increase the resilience of NUFS to future changes in climate.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virgílio A. Bento ◽  
Andreia F.S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Rita M. Cardoso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

<p>World food and drink production largely depends on wheat and barley crops, which are the basis of nutrition for both humans and animals. The Iberian Peninsula (IP), and particularly Spain, is responsible for a large percentage of farming areas dedicated to these two crops. Furthermore, the IP is known as a prominent climate change hot spot, with expected rising temperatures and a decrease in mean precipitation (with more extreme events). Thus, it is vital to understand the effects of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the IP.</p><p>Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were developed based on the relation between temperature and precipitation and both crop yields, with the aim of projecting these into the future. Three main objectives were pursued: (1) to establish the existence of a relationship between wheat and barley yields and temperature and precipitation, taking advantage of data from the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) forced with ERA-Interim; (2) to calibrate and validate MLR models using a selection of predictors from the same EURO-CORDEX RCMs; and (3) to apply these MLR models to EURO-CORDEX RCMs forced with global climate models (GCMs) for an historical period (1971-2000) and two future periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) according to two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results show a dichotomic behaviour of wheat and barley future yields depending on the crop’s production region. Projections for the southern cluster of the IP show severe yield losses for both cereals, which may be a consequence of the increase in maximum temperatures in spring, particularly for RCP8.5 at the end of the 21st century. Conversely, projections for the northern cluster of the IP show an increase in yield output, which may be a result of the projected warming taking place within the early winter months.</p><p>This study reinforces the worth to implementing changes in the society to mitigate losses and to assess production gains/losses due to climate change. These may be implemented locally (different cultivar species), countrywide (implementing sustainable policies), or even globally (alleviate greenhouse gas emissions). This work was supported by project IMPECAF (PTDC/CTA-CLI/28902/2017), LEADING (PTDC/CTA-MET/28914/2017) and by IDL (UIDB/50019/2020).</p>

scholarly journals Modeling the response of soil moisture to climate variability in the Mediterranean region

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Mimeau ◽  
Yves Tramblay ◽  
Luca Brocca ◽  
Christian Massari ◽  
Stefania Camici ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Moisture Condition ◽  
Soil Moisture Condition ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Future climate scenarios for the Mediterranean region indicate a possible decrease in annual precipitation associated with an intensification of extreme rainfall events in the coming years. A major challenge in this region is to evaluate the impacts of changing precipitation patterns on extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. For this, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on soil moisture since it is a proxy for agricultural droughts and the antecedent soil moisture condition plays a key role on runoff generation. This study focuses on 10 sites, located in Southern France, with available soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation observations on a 10 year time period. Soil moisture is simulated at each site at the hourly time step using a model of soil water content. The sensitivity of the simulated soil moisture to different changes in precipitation and temperature is evaluated by simulating the soil moisture response to temperature and precipitation scenarios generated using a delta change method for temperature and a stochastic model (Neyman-Scott rectangular pulse model) for precipitation. Results show that soil moisture is more impacted by changes in precipitation intermittence than precipitation intensity and temperature. Overall, increased temperature and precipitation intensity associated with more intermittent precipitation leads to decreased soil moisture and an increase in the annual number of days with dry soil moisture conditions. In particular, a temperature increase of +4 °C combined with a decrease of annual rainfall between 10 and 20 %, corresponding to the current available climate scenarios for the Mediterranean, lead to a lengthening of the drought period from June to October 15 with in average +22 days of soil moisture drought per year.

scholarly journals Estimation of future glaciation and runoff in the Tanimas basin, Eastern Pamirs

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1507-1540 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Hagg ◽  
M. Hoelzle ◽  
S. Wagner ◽  
Z. Klose
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Glacier Changes ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A conceptual hydrological model was set up in the upper Panj catchment, the main tributary of Amu-Darya river. Driven by daily temperature and precipitation, the model reproduced daily hydrographs of Tanimas river at the Rukhk gauging station in a very satisfactory way. Based on two glacier inventories from the mid-20st century (WGI, World Glacier Inventory) and from 2003 (GLIMS, Global Land Ice Measurements from Space), a simple parameterization scheme based on steady state conditions was applied to infer the ice volumes and glacier areas for the two different time periods in the past. Assuming temperature rises of 2.2 °C and 3.1 °C, which mark the extreme values of regional climate scenarios, the same method was used to extrapolate glaciation to the year 2050. The results show that these temperature rises will reduce the current glacier extent of 431 km2 by 36% and 45%, respectively. To assess future changes in water availability, the hydrological model input was modified according to the regional climate scenarios and the resulting glacier changes. The use of an elevation distributed deglaciation pattern is a clear improvement over methods used previously, where the impact on runoff was tested by excluding either the lower half or the total glacier area. The runoff scenarios reveal no changes in annual runoff, because the glacier area decrease is balanced out by enhanced melt rates. However, there is an important seasonal shift of water resources from summer to spring, unfavorably affecting agriculture and irrigation in the lowlands.

scholarly journals Modeling the response of soil moisture to climate variability in the Mediterranean region

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 653-669
Author(s):  
Louise Mimeau ◽  
Yves Tramblay ◽  
Luca Brocca ◽  
Christian Massari ◽  
Stefania Camici ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Moisture Condition ◽  
Soil Moisture Condition ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Future climate scenarios for the Mediterranean region indicate a possible decrease in annual precipitation associated with an intensification of extreme rainfall events in the coming years. A major challenge in this region is to evaluate the impacts of changing precipitation patterns on extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. For this, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on soil moisture since it is a proxy for agricultural droughts, and the antecedent soil moisture condition plays a key role on runoff generation. This study focuses on 10 sites, located in southern France, with available soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation observations for a 10-year time period. Soil moisture is simulated at each site at the hourly time step using a model of soil water content. The sensitivity of the simulated soil moisture to different changes in precipitation and temperature is evaluated by simulating the soil moisture response to temperature and precipitation scenarios generated using a delta change method for temperature and a stochastic model (the Neyman–Scott rectangular pulse model) for precipitation. Results show that soil moisture is more impacted by changes in precipitation intermittence than precipitation intensity and temperature. Overall, increased temperature and precipitation intensity associated with more intermittent precipitation leads to decreased soil moisture and an increase in the annual number of days with dry soil moisture conditions. In particular, a temperature increase of +4 ∘C combined with a decrease of annual rainfall between 10 % and 20 %, corresponding to the current available climate scenarios for the Mediterranean, lead to a lengthening of the drought period from June to October with an average of +28 d of soil moisture drought per year.

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