scholarly journals Neglected and Underutilized Fruit Species in Sri Lanka: Prioritisation and Understanding the Potential Distribution under Climate Change

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sujith S. Ratnayake ◽  
Lalit Kumar ◽  
Champika S. Kariyawasam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Fruit Species ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Food Security And Nutrition ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Neglected and underutilized fruit species (NUFS) can make an important contribution to the economy, food security and nutrition requirement for Sri Lanka. Identifying suitable areas for cultivation of NUFS is of paramount importance to deal with impending climate change issues. Nevertheless, limited studies have been carried out to assess the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of NUFS. Therefore, we examined the potential range changes of NUFS in a tropical climate using a case study from Sri Lanka. We prioritized and modeled the potentially suitable areas for four NUFS, namely Aegle marmelos, Annona muricata, Limonia acidissima and Tamarindus indica under current and projected climates (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for 2050 and 2070 using the maximum entropy (Maxent) species distribution modeling (SDM) approach. Potentially suitable areas for NUFS are predicted to decrease in the future under both scenarios. Out of the four NUFS, T. indica appears to be at the highest risk due to reduction in potential areas that are suitable for its growth under both emissions scenarios. The predicted suitable area reductions of this species for 2050 and 2070 are estimated as >75% compared to the current climate. A region of potentially higher climatic suitability was found around mid-county for multiple NUFS, which is also predicted to decrease under projected climate change. Further, the study identified high-potential agro-ecological regions (AERs) located in the mid-country’s wet and intermediate zones as the most suitable areas for promoting the cultivation of NUFS. The findings show the potential for incorporating predictive modeling into the management of NUFS under projected climate change. This study highlights the requirements of climate change adaptation strategies and focused research that can increase the resilience of NUFS to future changes in climate.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese White Pine Beetle Dendroctonus armandi in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 544
Author(s):  
Hang Ning ◽  
Ming Tang ◽  
Hui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Central China ◽  
Qinling Mountains ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Dendroctonus armandi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytidae) is a bark beetle native to China and is the most destructive forest pest in the Pinus armandii woodlands of central China. Due to ongoing climate warming, D. armandi outbreaks have become more frequent and severe. Here, we used Maxent to model its current and future potential distribution in China. Minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the two major factors constraining the current distribution of D. armandi. Currently, the suitable area of D. armandi falls within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. The total suitable area is 15.83 × 104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area is projected to increase slightly, while remaining within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. Among the climate scenarios, the distribution expanded the most under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5). Under all assumptions, the highly suitable area is expected to increase over time; the increase will occur in southern Shaanxi, northwest Hubei, and northeast Sichuan Provinces. By the 2050s, the highly suitable area is projected to increase by 0.82 × 104 km2. By the 2050s, the suitable climatic niche for D. armandi will increase along the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains, posing a major challenge for forest managers. Our findings provide information that can be used to monitor D. armandi populations, host health, and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.

scholarly journals The current and future potential geographical distribution of the oriental fruit fly,Bactrocera dorsalis(Diptera: Tephritidae)

2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 369-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.E.A. Stephens ◽  
D.J. Kriticos ◽  
A. Leriche
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cold Stress ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Fruit Fly ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Bactrocera Dorsalis ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Oriental Fruit Fly ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe oriental fruit fly,Bactrocera dorsalis(Hendel), is a major pest throughout South East Asia and in a number of Pacific Islands. As a result of their widespread distribution, pest status, invasive ability and potential impact on market access,B. dorsalisand many other fruit fly species are considered major threats to many countries. CLIMEX™ was used to model the potential global distribution ofB. dorsalisunder current and future climate scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes much of the tropics and subtropics and extends into warm temperate areas such as southern Mediterranean Europe. The model projects optimal climatic conditions forB. dorsalisin the south-eastern USA, where the principle range-limiting factor is likely to be cold stress. As a result of climate change, the potential global range forB. dorsalisis projected to extend further polewards as cold stress boundaries recede. However, the potential range contracts in areas where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially. The significant increases in the potential distribution ofB. dorsalisprojected under the climate change scenarios suggest that the World Trade Organization should allow biosecurity authorities to consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. One of the most significant areas of uncertainty in climate change concerns the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results are provided that span the range of standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. The impact on the projected distribution ofB. dorsalisis striking, but affects the relative abundance of the fly within the total suitable range more than the total area of climatically suitable habitat.

scholarly journals Localize the Impact of Global Greenhouse Gases Emissions under an Uncertain Future: A Case Study in Western Cape, South Africa

Earth ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-123
Author(s):  
Bowen He ◽  
Ke J. Ding
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Western Cape ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

The growing impact of CO2 and other greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions on the socio-climate system in the Western Cape, South Africa, urgently calls for the need for better climate adaptation and emissions-reduction strategies. While the consensus has been that there is a strong correlation between CO2 emissions and the global climate system, few studies on climate change in the Western Cape have quantified the impact of climate change on local climate metrics such as precipitation and evaporation under different future climate scenarios. The present study investigates three different CO2 emissions scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, from moderate to severe, respectively. Specifically, we used climate metrics including precipitation, daily mean and maximum near-surface air temperature, and evaporation to evaluate the future climate in Western Cape under each different RCP climate scenario. The projected simulation results reveal that temperature-related metrics are more sensitive to CO2 emissions than water-related metrics. Districts closer to the south coast are more resilient to severer GHG emissions scenarios compared to inland areas regarding temperature and rainfall; however, coastal regions are more likely to suffer from severe droughts such as the “Day-Zero” water crisis. As a result, a robust drying signal across the Western Cape region is likely to be seen in the second half of the 21st century, especially under the scenario of RCP 8.5 (business as usual) without efficient emissions reduction policies.

scholarly journals The Potential Distribution of Juniperus rigida Sieb. et Zucc. Vary Diversely in China under the Stringent and High GHG Emission Scenarios Combined Bioclimatic, Soil, and Topographic Factors

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1140
Author(s):  
Zhenjiang Lv ◽  
Dengwu Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Changbai Mountain ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Mongolian Plateau ◽  
Plateau Region ◽  
Potential Habitats ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

Global warming poses an enormous threat to particular species with shifts to their suitable habitat. Juniperus rigida Sieb. et Zucc., an endemic species to East Asia and a pioneer species in the Loess plateau region, is endangered because of the shrinking and scattered habitat threatened by climate change. For the sake of analyzing the impact of climate warming on its possible habitat, we herein projected the current and future potential habitats of J. rigida in China and comparatively analyzed the ecological habitat changes in three main distribution regions. There were 110 specimen records of J. rigida collected across China and 22 environmental datasets, including bioclimatic variables and soil and topographical factors, selected by the Pearson Correlation Coefficient. The MaxEnt model based on specimen presence and environmental factors was used for projecting the potential habitats of J. rigida in China in the 2050s and the 2070s of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The results indicated an excellence model performance with the average value of the area under curve (AUC) is 0.928. The mean temperature of the driest quarter (MTDq) and the temperature annual range (TAR) provided important contributions to the potential distribution of J. rigida. There were three main distribution areas in China, the Xinjiang region, the Loess-Inner Mongolian Plateau region, and the Changbai Mountain region. The distribution increased overall in area under RCP 2.6 and decreased for RCP 8.5. The mean altitude of the core distribution shifted upward in general under both scenarios. The Loess–Inner Mongolian Plateau region is the biggest distribution, encompassing ca. 61.39 × 104 km2 (86.87 × 104 km2 in China). The region threatened most by climate change is located in the Changbai Mountain distribution, with the centroid of the cord suitable habitat migrating southwest about 227.47 and 260.32 km under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 by the 2070s. In summary, these findings provided a well-grounded understanding of the effect of climate change on ecological distribution and furnished theory evidence for the protection, management, and sustainable use of J. rigida.

Modelling the potential distribution of endangered, endemic Hibiscus brackenridgei on Oahu to assess the impacts of climate change and prioritize conservation efforts.

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corey Rovzar ◽  
Thomas W Gillespie ◽  
Kapua Kawelo ◽  
Maggie McCain ◽  
Erin C Riordan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Endangered Species ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Dry Forest ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Presence Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

In the Hawaiian dry forest, 45% of all tropical dry forest trees and shrubs are on the federal threatened and endangered species list. Research is needed to understand the current range of these endangered species, the factors that affect their current and future distributions, and ultimately, identify areas where the most successful restoration can be undertaken. This research uses species distribution modelling to predict the potential range of Hibiscus brackenridgei, the state flower of Hawaii and a federally endangered species found on Oahu. We used presence data and the modelling algorithm Maxent to model the current potential distribution of H. brackenridgei, identify climate and environmental variables that influence the species’ distribution, and model the species’ predicted future distribution based on a range of projected climate change scenarios. Statistical analysis suggests that the Maxent models accurately predict the species’ distribution, and therefore, may be useful for conservation management. Comparing the current model with the future models of changes for 2060-2089, changes in the potential niche of H. brackenridgei only range by -4% to 14%. This suggests that the predicted changes in climate, under both low (B2a) and high (A2a) SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) global emissions scenarios, may not significantly impact the future distribution of H. brackenridgei on Oahu. We identified a total of 115 km2 of very highly (≥ 0.70) and highly (≥ 0.50) suitable habitat which represents potential areas where restoration projects could be implemented. This research suggests that threats like habitat loss, fire, invasive species, and grazing may be more important than climate for the future conservation of Hawaiian dry forest species.

scholarly journals Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Mohammed A. Dakhil ◽  
Marwa Waseem A. Halmy ◽  
Walaa A. Hassan ◽  
Ali El-Keblawy ◽  
Kaiwen Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
In Situ Conservation ◽  
Integrative Approach ◽  
Conservation Assessment ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Area Of Occupancy ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperuspingii var. pingii, J.tibetica, and J.komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.

scholarly journals Predicted Future Benefits for an Endemic Rodent in the Irano-Turanian Region

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Suzanna Meeussen ◽  
Anouschka Hof
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is expected to have an impact on the geographical distribution ranges of species. Endemic species and those with a restricted geographic range may be especially vulnerable. The Persian jird (Meriones persicus) is an endemic rodent inhabiting the mountainous areas of the Irano-Turanian region, where future desertification may form a threat to the species. In this study, the species distribution modelling algorithm MaxEnt was used to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographic distribution range of the Persian jird. Predictions were made under two Representative Concentration Pathways and five different climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. It was found that both bioclimatic variables and land use variables were important in determining potential suitability of the region for the species to occur. In most cases, the future predictions showed an expansion of the geographic range of the Persian jird which indicates that the species is not under immediate threat. There are however uncertainties with regards to its current range. Predictions may therefore be an over or underestimation of the total suitable area. Further research is thus needed to confirm the current geographic range of the Persian jird to be able to improve assessments of the impact of future climate change.

scholarly journals Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of Arbutus andrachne L. belonging to climate change in Turkey.

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayse Gul Sarikaya ◽  
◽  
Omer K. Orucu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Small Tree ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
Maxent Modeling ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Turkish Flora

Arbutus andrachne L., the strawberry tree, is an evergreen shrub or small tree in the Turkish flora and has broad uses. The wood is used for decorative purposes, packaging, and manufacturing furniture. The fruits are edible and used in treating many kinds of diseases. However, global warming might affect the abundance of this symbolic plant's distribution, especially at higher latitudes. This study was conducted to determine the expected effects of climate change on A. andrachne. For this purpose, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to expect climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070, and potential distribution areas of A. andrachne were presented. The results indicated that the distribution of A. andrachne would decrease in the southern regions of Turkey. However, the spread of the species could be expanded in the western and northern areas. It is also expected that there would be potential habitat losses, which would affect the distribution of A. andrachne.

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